Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Why Liechtenstein offer value against the Scots

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Today’s matches: 

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations by the Castrol ratings:

Montenegro vs England: England 57% chance (No value).
Liechtenstein vs Scotland: Scotland 65% chance (No value).
Wales vs Switzerland: Wales 32% chance (Value).
Nothern Ireland vs Estonia: Nortern Ireland 47% chance (No value).
Andorra vs Ireland (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 88% chance. (No Value).

Overall the bookies look to be pretty tight with the odds on the home nations. Only Wales offer some value at around 4.35.

Now lets have a look at Tuesday’s games and compare Castrol’s predictions to the odds available at the bookmakers. If the bookmakers are offering better odds than the chance implied by the ratings, then its a value bet. The Value % shows how big the value is. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

NB We’ve removed any bets where the fave is 1.20 or below and any games where there is no value (This includes some of the home nations)

According to the ratings a number of matches have value in the draw such as Latvia & draw. This means we’ve used either the ‘Double Chance’ odds or the +0.5 Asian handicap which both mean you profit from either the team winning or a draw (with lower odds naturally).

Value bets: 


Our bets: 

Some of these value levels look way out which provides some note of caution. Here are some bet ideas based on the ratings using Asian handicaps where appropriate to even things out a little. All 1 point level stakes

  • Azerbaijan vs Austria: Azerbaijan @ 3.78 Pinnacle.
  • Finland vs Sweden: Finland +0.75 @  2.26 Bet
  • Turkey vs Germany: Turkey @ 3.54 Pinnacle
  • Czech Republic vs Spain: Czech Republic +0.5 @ 2.11 188bet
  • Liechtenstein vs Scotland: Liechtenstein +1.25 @ 2.19 188bet

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