What’s The Most Profitable Sport For Betting?

When it comes to profitable betting, one of the most important questions you need to ask yourself is  what sport should I bet upon?

It’s one of the most common questions we get asked here at the Smart Betting Club and to answer it we have drilled through our stats to find out exactly which sport makes the most profit.

 After all, profit is why we are here and so by using our newly released September Tipster Profit Report, we can help answer this once and for all. Continue reading

What's The Most Profitable Sport For Betting?

When it comes to profitable betting, one of the most important questions you need to ask yourself is  what sport should I bet upon?

It’s one of the most common questions we get asked here at the Smart Betting Club and to answer it we have drilled through our stats to find out exactly which sport makes the most profit.

 After all, profit is why we are here and so by using our newly released September Tipster Profit Report, we can help answer this once and for all. Continue reading

Fink Tank Value System Update: Big Winners landed

It’s been an interesting festive period to say the least with the big teams ¬†appearing to join Wayne Rooney in focusing more on the festive cheer than their hard working opponents.

Most of the top teams were over turned in the festive/ new year period with last night’s Man U defeat the icing on the cake. It’s been a bad period for Alex Ferguson, but the Fink Tank value system has had a cracking time. Here are some of the bets it picked out recently:

  • Villa to beat Chelsea away at 14.8.
  • Blackburn to beat Man U away at 21.0
  • Sunderland to beat Man City at home at 7.0
  • Fulham to beat Arsenal at 4.33
  • Bolton to beat Everton away at 7.5
  • Newcastle to beat Man U at home at 5.5

Continue reading

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of¬†Champions League games.¬†

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games: ¬†
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the¬†Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City:¬†Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U¬†vs Otelul:¬†Man U 87.2% chance.¬†No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs¬†Marseille:¬†Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea:¬†Chelsea 71% chance.¬†No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading

Are Man United more dangerous after a shock defeat?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

Manchester United didn’t just lose against Man City, they were demolished. They suffered their worst home defeat last weekend since the formation of the Premier League, and in the process drifted out to 2/1 second-favourites to be lifting the trophy in May.

A popular theory is that this makes United more dangerous to their opponents in their next game because they are looking to avenge their loss.

But is this true?

We have examined the data across Europe’s Big 5 leagues to find out if there are any trends that might point to an instant return to form for United this weekend against Everton. Continue reading

How to spot when teams are over-performing

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover.  Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading

Champions League Value Bets: Value In the Gunners At Marseille

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of¬†Champions League games.¬†

Results so far: 
Results have not been good so far with the last round of matches being a virtual wipe out. Most of the bets have been 4.57 so the ratings are clearly finding more value in the underdog so far. The trouble is that the underdog is yet to properly bite. Continue reading

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Ireland to Edge Armenia

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to¬†Castrol‚Äôs ratings¬†as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the¬†Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check¬†this link¬†for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

42 bets
42 points staked
-3.76 points
-8.95% ROI.

Something of a wipeout last week for the ratings if taking a value betting approach and following them blindly. Highlights were the value found in Wales and the draw in the Italy vs Serbia game. They did at least indicate that there was no value in backing England against Montenegro.¬†Our suggested bets which use a little more discretion and handicaps to even out the game didn’t fare much better. A lot of the games went against the favourites, but there wasn’t much joy for the underdog last weekend. Continue reading

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Why Liechtenstein offer value against the Scots

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to¬†Castrol‚Äôs ratings¬†as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the¬†Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Today’s matches:¬†

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations by the Castrol ratings:

Montenegro vs England: England 57% chance (No value).
Liechtenstein vs Scotland: Scotland 65% chance (No value).
Wales vs Switzerland: Wales 32% chance (Value).
Nothern Ireland vs Estonia: Nortern Ireland 47% chance (No value).
Andorra vs Ireland (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 88% chance. (No Value). Continue reading