Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results.

2010/2011 season

Last season pulled in some excellent returns on both home and away bets.

Here’s the home & away comparison. (Profit in points, with 1 point equivalent to a mythical £1 bet).

All bets31052.3716.89%

The ratings performed superbly last season when taking this value betting approach. As good as these results appear, it certainly wasn’t a smooth ride with the profits coming in fits and starts, usually as big winners were landed. Notable highlights included West Brom to beat Arsenal away at 17.50, Newcastle to beat Arsenal away at 13.04, Wigan to beat Spurs away at 12.59 and Wolves to beat Liverpool away at 10.00. These four bets alone account for the bulk of the profits made over the season!

Either the ratings are very good at helping you to spot value outsiders, or they were very lucky. It’s probably a bit of both because you would lose a lot of money simply backing outsiders all the time, but you need luck to convert a value bet into profits when you do bet at high odds.

How has this season been so far?

2011/2012 season so far. 

So far this season, the EPL results have followed a similar path – a fair amount of noise with results breaking even until a couple of big winners were landed. Highlights so far include QPR beating Chelsea at 9.60 and Arsenal beating Chelsea away at 6.18.

Here’s the home & away comparison. (Profit in points, with 1 point equivalent to a mythical £1 bet).

All bets9210.1711.05%

With just 92 bets to date, its still early days, but there are some interesting differences this season so far. Last year best with odds below 2.0 (evens) lost money, while this season the odds on favourites have been a good money spinner. The home bets have got off to a slow start again though just like last season.

Overall, the picture remains positive. The performance is still noisy, but based on the evidence seen so far, the ratings do seem to be a valuable addition to your betting armoury.

You can find the Dectech/ Fink Tank ratings here. We do the leg work to find the value qualifiers each week for Smart Betting Club subscribers. Click below to join today.