Champions League Value Bets: Small Value In Man U Home Win.

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of¬†Champions League games.¬†

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, but there just haven’t been enough major upsets.
Bets: 59
Profit/ loss: -25.34 points
Tuesday’s games: ¬†
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the¬†Dectech ratings:
  • Man U vs Benfica: Man U 67.4% chance. Value with Man U.
  • Napoli vs Man City: Man City 45.6% chance. No value with Man City.
  • Arsenal vs Dortmund: Arsenal 45.2% chance. No value with Arsenal.
  • Bayer Leverkusen vs Chelsea: Chelsea 42.3% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings.

Here are all the games:

NB bets like Olympiakos & Draw mean the ratings find value in both the draw and the away side so both are backed using a bookmaker’s Double Chance. If a game is missing it means there is no value in any proposition.

Bet Ideas:

You can follow the value bets blindly or use them to inform your own betting. For example, Otelul are big value against United, but if the match were played 1000 times, they’d still only win a handful of times. Therefore you might want to pick and choose or use Asian Handicaps to level the playing field.

With this in mind, here are some of the bets that caught our eye:

  • Moscow Home Win @ 2.41 Pinnacle.
  • Otelul home (+0.25 handiap) @ 2.56 Pinnacle sports.
  • Apoel away (+1) @ 2.16 Pinnacle sports.
  • Bayer Leverkusen home (0) @ 2.53 Pinnacle sports.
  • Olympiakos away (+0.5) @ +2.42¬†SBO bet.
  • Real Madrid home (-2.75) @ 2.05 SBO bet.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club. 

 

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of¬†Champions League games.¬†

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games: ¬†
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the¬†Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City:¬†Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U¬†vs Otelul:¬†Man U 87.2% chance.¬†No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs¬†Marseille:¬†Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea:¬†Chelsea 71% chance.¬†No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Ireland to Edge Armenia

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to¬†Castrol‚Äôs ratings¬†as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the¬†Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check¬†this link¬†for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

42 bets
42 points staked
-3.76 points
-8.95% ROI.

Something of a wipeout last week for the ratings if taking a value betting approach and following them blindly. Highlights were the value found in Wales and the draw in the Italy vs Serbia game. They did at least indicate that there was no value in backing England against Montenegro.¬†Our suggested bets which use a little more discretion and handicaps to even out the game didn’t fare much better. A lot of the games went against the favourites, but there wasn’t much joy for the underdog last weekend. Continue reading

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Why Liechtenstein offer value against the Scots

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to¬†Castrol‚Äôs ratings¬†as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the¬†Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Today’s matches:¬†

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations by the Castrol ratings:

Montenegro vs England: England 57% chance (No value).
Liechtenstein vs Scotland: Scotland 65% chance (No value).
Wales vs Switzerland: Wales 32% chance (Value).
Nothern Ireland vs Estonia: Nortern Ireland 47% chance (No value).
Andorra vs Ireland (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 88% chance. (No Value). Continue reading

Champions League Value Bets: Is there value in an under strength Man U?

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games.¬†

First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the¬†Dectech ratings:
  • Bayern Munich vs Man City:¬†Man City 21.90% Chance. Value with City.
  • Man U v Basel: Man U 89.60% chance. Small value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Olympiakos: Arsenal 72% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Valencia v Chelsea: Chelsea 38.75% chance. No value with Chelsea. Continue reading

Champions League Value Bets: Can Anyone Beat Barca?

In last year’s Champions League final, Barcelona gave Manchester United a lesson in how to play football. As good as United were, Barca were just untouchable.

As the 2011/2012 builds momentum, there is a lot of talk about how United have learned from that game at Wembley. But can they do it this time or are the Catalans just too strong?

Likely winner & value bets

To help us determine this, the guys at Dectech have calculated the % chance each team has of winning the Champions League this year. This will adjust as the season progresses, but right now, here are their predictions for the main teams and UK interests. We’ve also added the best bookie odds and whether these offer value.
Continue reading

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings Round Up

For the last 10 days, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to¬†Castrol‚Äôs ratings¬†as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the¬†Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

See Monday’s post here:

Update: 

Tuesday’s value bets were not as successful as the previous weekends to put it mildly with a lack of under dog victories hurting the record. We covered the draw well enough though and the damage could have been a lot worse if the ratings hadn’t picked out the value here as well.

Still, things could be a lot worse with the record from the current campaign as follows:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Our bets: 

Not much luck with the highlighted bets so far with the wrong handicap choice hurting us again. This time we should have gone with the Double Chance instead of the Draw No bet.

Latvia vs Greece: Latvia Draw No Bet @ 3.75 Bet 365. Draw. Stake Returned. 
Malta vs Georgia: Malta Draw No Bet @ 3.65 Expekt. Draw Stake Returned. 
Denmark vs Norway: Norway Draw No Bet @ 3.00 William Hill. Home Win, Loss. 

The next Euro 2012 games are in October, so next up for the Castrol ratings/ Fink Tank test will be Champions League fixtures next week.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club. 

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol’s ratings

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to¬†Castrol’s ratings¬†as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the¬†Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol's ratings

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to¬†Castrol’s ratings¬†as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the¬†Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading