Champions League Value Bets: Is there value in an under strength Man U?

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Bayern Munich vs Man City: Man City 21.90% Chance. Value with City.
  • Man U v Basel: Man U 89.60% chance. Small value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Olympiakos: Arsenal 72% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Valencia v Chelsea: Chelsea 38.75% chance. No value with Chelsea.

Here are all the games:

NB bets like AC Milan & Draw mean the ratings find value in both the draw and the away side so both are backed using a bookmaker’s Double Chance.

Bet Ideas:

You can follow the value bets blindly or use them to inform your own betting. For example, if Napoli are big value against Man City, but if the match were played 1000 times, they’d still only win 118 times according to the ratings. Therefore you might want to pick and choose or use Asian Handicaps to level the playing field.

With this in mind, here are some of the bets that caught our eye:

  • Moscow @ Home: 2.50 Ladbrokes.
  • Villarreal away DNB: 3.4 Stan James
  • Ajax away -2 Asian Handicap: 2.03 188bet
  • Trabsonspor home: 3.09 Pinnacle.
  • Olympiakos away: +1 handicap: 2.21 188bet.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club.