“Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics” …So goes the well-known phrase made popular by Mark Twain on how people (usually politicians) use numbers to push forward weak arguments.
Yet it’s not just politicians who like to bend the truth with numbers, but also tipsters too, with some of the worst culprits playing fast and loose with their profit figures.
For example, here are just a few claims I received from various tipster spam mailing lists I seem to be on:
- “102 points profit so far made in June”
- “I made £2551 Profit in just 4 days”
- “Earn £800 a week tax-free per week”
The problem with each of these claims is that they only discuss profit without any context.
You might have made 102 points profit in June, but it’s not much use if the first 5 months of the year lost 200 points is it?
Even if the service in question has a long-term profitable record (unlikely as its spam!) then how much money did they risk to make those 102 points profit?
After all, you wouldn’t want to be risking £200,000 to make that £800 a week would you?
How To Put Tipster Results Into Context
So how exactly can you weigh up how valuable a tipster really is and put their profit figures into context?
Well, one of the best methods we advocate is working out its Return on Capital (ROC), which is sometimes also known as Betting Bank Growth.
This is a very effective calculation as it tells you how much your initial money will grow over a period of time.
Simply quoting 102 points profit means nothing, but 102% ROC – well that would indicate you have more than doubled your betting bank.
Here are a few examples to explain further…
- Tipster A makes 50% ROC in a 6 month period
If starting with £2000 you would now have a £1000 profit (50% ROC)
- Tipster B makes a 150% ROC over the course of a football season
If starting with £5000, you would now have a £7500 profit (150% ROC)
- Tipster C makes a 300% ROC over a 2 year period
If starting with £1000, you would now have a £3000 profit (300% ROC).
Why ROC Often Beats ROI!
For my money, working out the ROC or Return on Capital for any tipster often supersedes many other calculations, including Return on Investment (ROI)
ROI works out how much you have to stake to make your profit and whilst important, it is often ROC that provides even greater context.
As an example, check out the stats on the football tipster below, who over the course of 2 seasons has made a 8.8% ROI and 66.6 points profit from 824 bets.
Now at first glance to some punters, this record seems OK at best. Only 66.6 points profit in 2 years at 8.08% ROI might seem fairly small in comparison to some other tipsters.
Yet, you would be wrong to ignore these stats and you will see why when I add in the ROC figures below.
Due to the relatively high strike-rate and our suggested bank size, the ROC calculation comes in at 166.5% for the entire 2 season period.
That’s 95.7% bank growth in 2015/16 and 70.8% bank growth in the 2016/17 season.
Starting with £2000 in 2015, you would have made a profit of £3,320 over the course of these 2 seasons.
I don’t know about you but if I could guarantee my betting bank would grow by 166% over the course of 2 seasons football betting, I would take that!
One Size Does NOT Fit All!
Despite all the above, you do need to be very careful when it comes to working out your betting bank sizes as some tipsters do not have a clue on what to advise!
I have seen several examples where a tipster has claimed a huge ROC, yet clearly have far too small a betting bank suggestion.
So small, that if following you would have bust your bank long before any profit is made.
All of which is why, here at SBC we set our own betting bank sizes for EVERY tipster we review, using a special simulator we developed to help calculate the optimum suggestion.
This simulator crunches the numbers for each tipster to arrive at a suggested betting bank figure that is realistic and fair.
Some tipsters don’t like this as we often recommend higher betting bank sizes to those they suggest.
Yet ultimately what is most important to us is providing you with fair and accurate betting bank suggestions you can stick to.
Expert Guidance On ROC, ROI, Profit, Banks & More
You can discover more on the best performing tipsters for ROC (or Betting Bank Growth) as a Smart Betting Club member.
Not only this, but you can also find comparison tables providing you with details on:
- The best overall tipster
- The most profitable tipsters
- The best tipsters from the last 12 months
- The best low cost tipsters
- The best free tipsters
- The best ‘odds availability’ tipsters (those that quote realistic prices)
- And much more besides…
We also know that its not just profits in theory that you want but in practice. Which is why you can also view:
- The Best ‘Adjusted Profits’ Tipsters – how their profits stand up if betting often 15 to 30 minutes after a tip is supplied (ideal if worried about not getting the advised prices!)
- Unique ‘Suggested Profits’ Tables – how much money you need to risk and how much you can make betting. Fully tailored to each tipster to be entirely realistic.
For those of you keen to understand how betting banks work, we also have a full rundown in the Pro Gambler Blueprint we supply to you as a Smart Betting Club member.
All of this is available to you the instant you join us at the Smart Betting Club.
Best of all, you can now join and save up to £38 as part of our specially discounted 2017 membership prices.
See you on the inside.
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