Tipster Lies & Statistics / Calculating Betting Bank Growth

“Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics” …So goes the well-known phrase made popular by Mark Twain on how people (usually politicians) use numbers to push forward weak arguments.

Yet it’s not just politicians who like to bend the truth with numbers, but also tipsters too, with some of the worst culprits playing fast and loose with their profit figures.

For example, here are just a few claims I received from various tipster spam mailing lists I seem to be on:

• “102 points profit so far made in June”
• “I made £2551 Profit in just 4 days”
• “Earn £800 a week tax-free per week”

The problem with each of these claims is that they only discuss profit without any context.

You might have made 102 points profit in June, but it’s not much use if the first 5 months of the year lost 200 points is it?

Even if the service in question has a long-term profitable record (unlikely as its spam!) then how much money did they risk to make those 102 points profit?

After all, you wouldn’t want to be risking £200,000 to make that £800 a week would you?

How To Put Tipster Results Into Context

So how exactly can you weigh up how valuable a tipster really is and put their profit figures into context?

Well, one of the best methods we advocate is working out its Return on Capital (ROC), which is sometimes also known as Betting Bank Growth.

This is a very effective calculation as it tells you how much your initial money will grow over a period of time.

Simply quoting 102 points profit means nothing, but 102% ROC – well that would indicate you have more than doubled your betting bank.

Here are a few examples to explain further…

• Tipster A makes 50% ROC in a 6 month period
If starting with £2000 you would now have a £1000 profit (50% ROC)
• Tipster B makes a 150% ROC over the course of a football season
If starting with £5000, you would now have a £7500 profit (150% ROC)
• Tipster C makes a 300% ROC over a 2 year period
If starting with £1000, you would now have a £3000 profit (300% ROC).

Why ROC Often Beats ROI!

For my money, working out the ROC or Return on Capital for any tipster often supersedes many other calculations, including Return on Investment (ROI)

ROI works out how much you have to stake to make your profit and whilst important, it is often ROC that provides even greater context.

As an example, check out the stats on the football tipster below, who over the course of 2 seasons has made a 8.8% ROI and 66.6 points profit from 824 bets.

Now at first glance to some punters, this record seems OK at best. Only 66.6 points profit in 2 years at 8.08% ROI might seem fairly small in comparison to some other tipsters.

Yet, you would be wrong to ignore these stats and you will see why when I add in the ROC figures below.

Due to the relatively high strike-rate and our suggested bank size, the ROC calculation comes in at 166.5% for the entire 2 season period

That’s 95.7% bank growth in 2015/16 and 70.8% bank growth in the 2016/17 season.

Starting with £2000 in 2015, you would have made a profit of £3,320 over the course of these 2 seasons.

I don’t know about you but if I could guarantee my betting bank would grow by 166% over the course of 2 seasons football betting, I would take that!

One Size Does NOT Fit All!

Despite all the above, you do need to be very careful when it comes to working out your betting bank sizes as some tipsters do not have a clue on what to advise!

I have seen several examples where a tipster has claimed a huge ROC, yet clearly have far too small a betting bank suggestion.

So small, that if following you would have bust your bank long before any profit is made.

All of which is why, here at SBC we set our own betting bank sizes for EVERY tipster we review, using a special simulator we developed to help calculate the optimum suggestion.

This simulator crunches the numbers for each tipster to arrive at a suggested betting bank figure that is realistic and fair.

Some tipsters don’t like this as we often recommend higher betting bank sizes to those they suggest.

Yet ultimately what is most important to us is providing you with fair and accurate betting bank suggestions you can stick to.

Expert Guidance On ROC, ROI, Profit, Banks & More

You can discover more on the best performing tipsters for ROC (or Betting Bank Growth) as a Smart Betting Club member.

Not only this, but you can also find comparison tables providing you with details on:

• The best overall tipster
• The most profitable tipsters
• The best tipsters from the last 12 months
• The best low cost tipsters
• The best free tipsters
• The best ‘odds availability’ tipsters (those that quote realistic prices)
• And much more besides…

We also know that its not just profits in theory that you want but in practice. Which is why you can also view:

• The Best ‘Adjusted Profits’ Tipsters – how their profits stand up if betting often 15 to 30 minutes after a tip is supplied (ideal if worried about not getting the advised prices!)
• Unique ‘Suggested Profits’ Tables – how much money you need to risk and how much you can make betting. Fully tailored to each tipster to be entirely realistic.

For those of you keen to understand how betting banks work, we also have a full rundown in the we supply to you as a Smart Betting Club member.

All of this is available to you the instant you join us at the Smart Betting Club.

Best of all, you can now join and save up to £38 as part of our specially discounted 2017 membership prices.

<< JOIN THE Smart Betting Club TODAY >>

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

“90-DAY 100% SATISFACTION MONEY BACK GUARANTEE”……

“I believe so strongly in SBC’s ability to help your betting, you can subscribe with a 100% cast-iron 90-day money back guarantee”.
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Have You Been Caught Out By These 5 Dodgy Tipster Practices?

Despite the Smart Betting Club‘s work over the years in trying to clean up and provide some regulation to the betting tipster scene, there are still sadly a number of tipster scams that continue to do the rounds.

Whilst the internet has helped in providing transparency and ease of access to good tipsters, it has also opened up new ways to rip off punters through the likes of social media, where unwitting people continue to get caught out.

To help protect you from some of these scams, I have put together a list of 5 of the most common dodgy tipster ploys to watch out for.

Varying from the outright scandalous to the somewhat dubious, it’s a quick rundown of what you as a punter need to be aware of before you join any tipster service.

Dodgy Tipster #1 – Selling Others Tips As Your Own

The inspiration for today’s article is the ‘tipster leech’ who sells off the exact same tips from other genuine experts as his own. Unable to figure out a way to win at betting himself, he simply copies others and leeches off the best – yet all the while pretending to be the expert in question.

After a few months, he invariably gets caught out and so constantly needs to reinvent himself and come up with something new for his mailing list (no doubt full of emails purchased without permission)

Not so long ago, I received a suspicious looking email from him advertising a new hyped wonder system and after analysing the ‘claimed’ results, I spotted identical tips as to those we at SBC have received from another genuine long-serving tipster.

It quickly became apparent that he was a subscriber to this tipster and was re-selling the tips on without permission (and at a pretty hefty fee too). Worst of all, he was supplying them later in the day and after much of the value in the bet had actually gone.

I duly notified the tipster in question who identified the culprit pirating the tips and removed him from his service.

Sadly, it won’t be the last I hear from this ‘tipster leech’ as he has been around for years, making up websites and false promises of tipping expertise on a regular basis. It highlights the care you must take when you get an email out of the blue promising the earth from a tipster service, especially one new on the scene.

Dodgy Tipster #2 – Social Media Tipsters

Social Media has come to dominate our lives over recent years and the likes of Twitter and Facebook continue to be a breeding group for tipster scams.

It’s easy to understand why as you can setup a new Facebook page or Twitter account in seconds, put up a bunch of tips and if they win – great, if they lose, just delete it.

This happens regularly, especially with bets like accas, which are hugely popular on Social Media. All you need do is simply create 10 accounts on Twitter or Facebook, put up a slightly different version of an acca on each one and boom, one of them will probably come good each weekend.

Sometimes the social media tipster actually wants you to lose as they take a cut from the losses incurred through bookmaker affiliate links (As when you lose, the bookies win)

It’s one reason we only proof or review tipsters who actually have a genuine website (not just a Social Media account) with at least 12 months of results to work with.

Be very, very careful therefore if you follow tipsters with a social media presence only.

Why Did You Join The Smart Betting Club?

“To find profitable tipsters and to read the guides available for SBC members on profitable betting. Before SBC, I’d followed various other systems and ratings, some successfully, but mostly unsuccessfully. SBC helps steer punters towards profitable and reliable tipsters. It’s great that SBC is independent too”

As written by ‘K’ – An SBC member for several years

Dodgy Tipster #3 – Claiming ‘Inside Information’

It’s the oldest trick in the book – claim to have ‘inside information’ about tips guaranteed to win and asking for people to stump up the cash in the hope of getting in on the action.

The sad reality is that even if accepting the fact there might be a very small number of people who do get inside info on certain horses to win a race – they are never going to share it with a stranger, no matter how convincing they sound or how much they charge.

In all the years working at SBC, we have discovered not one genuine ‘inside info’ based tipster worth bothering with.

They almost exclusively are all-mouth-no-trousers types with one goal – to fleece you of cash.

Dodgy Tipster #4 – Quoting Nonsense Prices With Nonsense Bookies

Sliding down the scale of dubious practices are the tipsters who continuously quote odds with bookies that no-one can realistically obtain.

Those tipsters that put up tips available only with bookies such as Boylesports, who according to the results of our Better Betting Campaign, either closed or severely restricted 82% of all surveyed betting accounts. Download our free for more on our campaign and survey that reveal these stats.

At the best of times, punters with even a hint of nous about them stand little or no chance getting on with the likes of Boylesports – even if you do, there is every chance if backing a winner your account will be closed.

Other firms consistently poorly rated for closing or restricting accounts include the likes of Stan James, Betway and Ladbrokes and tips put forward with them might not be obtainable for most punters.

So before you get too excited about any tipster, make sure you note which bookmakers they are quoting prices with. If its one of the four firms mentioned above, the chances of you getting a decent bet on are likely to be limited in the long-run.

Hugh Taylor – Are His Quoted Prices Realistic?

Although he isn’t a dodgy tipster (more one that puts up prices no one can realistically achieve), I have to question the likes of  when he puts up tips with a standout price available only with Boylesports.

Just yesterday he put up Mucho Applause at a standout 50/1 with Boylesports – a horse that saw significant backing all the way into its eventual 16/1 SP (it came 7th). Here is the advice he put forward:

How many of his followers might have taken the 50/1 with Boylesports I wonder? Very few I imagine and those that had won’t find their accounts lasting too long if backing 50/1 shots that start at 16/1 SP.

Dodgy Tipster #5 – Silly Stakes & Results Out of Context

Finally, one of my biggest bugbears are those tipsters who quote profits to silly stakes such as 50 or 100 points, simply to make their profits look big.

It might make a great headline to say…”We made 1000 pts profit last month” but if you had to risk 100,000 points to make that – well its nothing to shout about at all. That is just a 1% return on investment (ROI)

Tipsters that constantly claim results out of context wind me right up because it is so misleading and often it’s a sign they are to avoided at all costs.

As a minimum, from any tipster, you should expect to see full results stats including number of bets, amount staked, total profit and key calculations such as return on investment and return on capital.

Putting their results into an accurate context so you can judge just how good they REALLY are.

Hopefully the 5 points above will give you a good steer on some of the more popular dodgy tipster practices out there currently and what to avoid.

If however, you are looking for actually bonafide, genuine tipsters then here at the Smart Betting Club we can help you.

We work full-time on not only reviewing the best new tipsters, but also tracking the ones that continue to make money betting for SBC members.

Ranking and reviewing each tipster not only by their profits, but also how realistically achievable their odds are, how good their customer service is and many other factors. Click here to read all about our exhaustive review and rating process.

You can read all about the very best tipsters, including the 34 top racing experts we recommend in our very latest Horse Racing Tipster Profit Report.

And for those of you more interested in betting away from racing, you can also find similar reports dedicated to the best football, tennis, US sports and golf tipsters. Full details on all of the reports we provide can be found here.

Best of all you can subscribe instantly and save up to £38 on the cost of a yearly membership currently!

<< JOIN THE Smart Betting Club TODAY >>

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

Racing to Victory: 34 Top Tipsters Reviewed & Rated

Today has seen the release of a special new Horse Racing Tipster Profit Report, which features everything you need to know about making money betting on the sport of Kings including:

• Details on 34 of the best racing tipsters we have uncovered in 11 years tracking
• The 13 racing tipsters holding our renowned ‘Hall of Fame‘ recommendation
• Ratings on the best racing tipsters advising achievable and fair odds
• Betting bank and staking plans suggestions for each tipster.

Sign-up now to gain instant access (and the entire SBC back catalogue) or read on for more…

INSIDE THE RACING TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT

34 Of The Best Racing Tipsters Rated, Reviewed & Ranked Including….

Tipster 1: Averaging 6X Betting Bank Growth Annually! – This Racing Expert Is On-Fire!

Tipster 2: The Free Service Up £2713 Since June 2016. Hitting A 40.9% ROI In 2017!

Tipster 3: 499 Points Profit In The Last 12 Months (Trial For 60 Days For Just £1!)

Tipster 4: 30% ROI Achieved Over 13 Years For This Long-Term Winner. Non-Stop Profits!

Unique Tipster Comparison Tables

Each Tipster Profit Report is designed to help you find the very best betting tipsters – those that have proven themselves to be successful over a long-term period of time.

To help with this we breakdown the 34 tipsters into different categories so you can easily compare and contrast them.

So for example you can find comparison tables detailing:

• The best overall tipster
• The most profitable tipsters
• The best tipsters from the last 12 months
• The best low cost tipsters
• The best free tipsters
• The best betting bank growth tipsters
• The best ‘odds availability’ tipsters (those that quote realistic prices)
• And much more besides…

We also know that its not just profits in theory that you want but in practice. Which is why you can also view:

• The Best ‘Adjusted Profits’ Tipsters – how their profits stand up if betting often 15 to 30 minutes after a tip is supplied (ideal if worried about not getting the advised prices!)
• Unique ‘Suggested Profits’ Tables – how much money you need to risk and how much you can make betting. Fully tailored to each tipster to be entirely realistic.

Save Up To £35 On An SBC Membership!

Best of all, you can now join and save up to £35 as part of our specially discounted 2017 membership prices.

Making it a great time to sign-up and see how we can help you and your betting!

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

Why These Hedge Fund Investors Are Turning To Sports Betting

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Earlier this week, Business Insider magazine published a fascinating article about the new sports betting ‘hedge fund’ with one goal: To make money through betting.

This sports betting fund is being run by Stratagem and was founded by Andreas Koukorinis – a veteran of the more traditional financial hedge fund industry. Andreas and his team have seen what we have been banging on about for years here at the Smart Betting Club – that profitable betting is a reality if done right.

It might be betting on a larger scale than usual (they are raising a £25 Million hedge fund to bet with, which although it sounds a lot is relatively small beer for hedge funds per se) but what is most interesting is the methodology behind how they identify the best bets to place. ‘To find mispriced odds where Stratagem has a better chance of winning [than the bookmaker]’

Even more familiar is how Stratagem work out the best bets in the first place. “We collect Twitter feeds, crowdsource videos, market data, we collect from operators, action data we buy from various sources, tech data the analysts write — all of those sources.”

Effectively, Stratagem is gathering data, using the best analysis and analysts and placing bets where the odds are in their favour.

Sounds familiar?

Well it should do as this is effectively what we have been doing for years at the Smart Betting Club. Yet in our case, we exist for the everyday punter, not just those rich enough to invest in a £25 million hedge fund!

Can You Really Make Money Betting?

The article makes a big point about why Koukorinis and the Stratagem CEO, Charles McGarraugh left their traditional jobs in the City of London to be part of this hedge fund upstart.

A clear attempt to address the key question most of its core readers would be wondering: ‘Can you really make money betting’?

Stratagem claim to be doing so and this is no surprise when you consider how accessible and easy it is for punters these days to find the right experts (AKA tipsters) to guide them as to the best bets to place.

The sources that Stratagem use might well be different, yet the approach appears similar – to be shrewder than the bookmaker or exchange market and to bet at value odds.

This is also the approach that SBC’s blogger and pro-punter, Rowan Day takes and his recently released 2016/17 Bet Diary Profit Report outlined how he made a 58.76% growth betting last year. Following up the 64.4% he made in 2015/16.

Best of all – Rowan achieved all this through following a small number of recommended tipsters – Click here to read his free report!

4 Holidays A Year Paid For With Betting Profits…

“Since I joined the Smart Betting Club, my betting profits have paid for all my foreign holidays, which I take 4 times a year!”

As written by Phil – An SBC member for several years

Betting Vs ‘Traditional’ Forms of Investment

Another reason more and more individuals and companies are turning to the betting market as a way to make money is down to the advantages betting holds over other forms of investment.

Whilst the stock and housing markets are considered more traditional forms of making money, in reality, they are also a form of gambling and often at very high stakes.

You are gambling that it’s the right market to invest in or that some unforeseen event won’t take place such as the 2008 crash, Brexit, Donald Trump or a snap UK Election. All of which were very much unexpected by the majority of experts (and betting markets!) and its ultimately a gamble you are investing at the right time.

There are also often significant fees, penalties and taxes on these more ‘traditional’ forms of investment and you regularly need large sums to get started. Plus you might have to wait years to see a return or profit kick in.

Betting, however, is a great leveler as you need very little money to get started, no qualifications, solicitors, estate agents, stockbrokers or lawyers. Anyone can do it!

Like any form of investment, betting comes with its own risks, not least the challenges of handling losing runs and bets when they hit (the biggest leveler there is). Yet with the right setup, discipline and prudent management it does offer a very viable and easy-to-get-started alternative.

If you are interested in the idea of trying to turn a profit betting, then we are here to help you.

Our in-depth reports, reviews and magazines will help you discover the best, most reliable and professional tipsters to follow on an ongoing basis. We tell you who is both in and out of form, the best new tipsters to watch out for and the experienced experts who continue to make profits year-in, year-out.

As an SBC member, you will also gain full access to Rowan’s Bet Diary Pro, which features ALL details on the tipsters he follows to make the profits outlined in his Bet Diary Profit Report. Inspiration and guidance if its needed on how one man is making it work!

For those of you unsure, we also offer a risk-free 90 day money back guarantee if you don’t like what we offer after joining. Enabling you to sample our service, understand what we do and how we can help you.

<< JOIN THE Smart Betting Club TODAY >>

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

“90-DAY 100% SATISFACTION MONEY BACK GUARANTEE”……

“I believe so strongly in SBC’s ability to help your betting, you can subscribe with a 100% cast-iron 90-day money back guarantee”.
SBC Editor – Peter Ling     Subscribe Now