How to check if a tipsters quoted odds are fair and realistic

One of the most important questions facing those of you using racing tipsters these days is that of odds availability.

Specifically…Can you as a punter realistically obtain the odds that a tipster quotes?

For some of the most popular free tipsters like Hugh Taylor or Andy Holding it’s always been an issue as the weight of money behind their tips forces the odds in very quickly. The fact they both supply their tips for free means there are lots of punters trying to lump on their bets.

Odds movement is also now a growing issue for other less well-known tipsters too – especially horse racing experts that put up bets into early markets which are very price sensitive.

Whilst it might make sense to follow a tipster snapping up the earliest value – in reality, it can cause you all kinds of problems. From the fact you will be making less profit (and possibly losing so much value you might be in deficit by doing so) to being increasingly vulnerable to betting restrictions being applied to your bookmaker accounts.

In short, its a major issue and one you need to be acutely aware of if following a tipster.

The Evolution of Racing Bookmaking

To help explain the current issue with ‘early odds’, it’s worth a quick walk down memory lane to understand how betting on racing historically worked.

Back in the good old days, most major bookmakers employed large teams of racing traders who would price up each race meeting and manage a traditional racing book.

As money flowed in a market, the odds for each horse would change as each firm managed their liability and tried to work an overall profitable position.

Occasionally, some bookmakers would find themselves getting filled in and taking a hit if getting it wrong, yet their in-built over-round always ensured that long-term, they would usually make a profit with a modicum of skill.

With the introduction of betting exchanges, all of this changed.

Nowadays, large-scale racing trading teams are a thing of the past, with almost all bookmakers basing their odds on what happens on Betfair.

If money comes in for a horse on Betfair – the bookie slashes its prices to reflect that. The opposite rings true on horses that drift in price although generally bookies are much slower to put their odds up than down.

Ultimately, the art of building a racing book has been lost by all major firms. They simply track Betfair.

Which in turn has impacted how we as punters get on and how the markets react to shrewd money.

Why Odds Are Odd When Betting Early

This sea change in the world of racing bookmaking has had a major knock-on effect for those punters keen to bet early such as the night before or the early morning of racing.

For most horse races these days, you can expect to see the first odds start to appear around 4 to 5pm the day before racing is due to take place from a handful of bookies.

As the evening wears on, a few more firms will start to quote odds until there are a smattering of bookmakers pricing up each horse in a race.

This continues into the morning of racing and it is not until 10 to 1030am when the markets really start to form, with the vast majority of money actually only hitting the market around 10 minutes before a race actually starts.

The problem for us punters is that when taking ‘early’ prices prior to the market forming – these prices are based on a very small amount of Betfair trading – usually not much money at all.

A horse that is 10/1 at 9am, which suddenly sees a rush of support can send the bookies running for cover and be as short as 5/1 within 20 to 30 minutes.

This is because without a decent Betfair market to guide them at this time and with very little ‘racing expertise’, the bookies know they are vulnerable to shrewd punters who try and snap up the value odds on any overpriced horses at this point.

Therefore, even moderate sums of money coming in for a horse (especially at big odds) will see its price collapse in no time and the accounts of those placing such bets eyed with suspicion.

Want to red flag your account to a bookmaker as one for restriction? Simply place lots of bets on popular horses that quickly shorten in price and that usually does the trick.

Sometimes it matters not one jot if your bets go onto win. The simple act of regularly betting horses that shorten in price is enough to see many bookmakers limit your account.

20/1 Advised into 8/1 SP…

It is this issue of slashing odds that causes such a problem for tipsters who post up bets into these early betting markets.

The general logic is that the earlier a tipster puts up a tip, the greater chance its odds will move downwards*

*Although it’s important to make the distinction here that betting in the major race meetings such as Cheltenham or on the big Saturday/Sunday featured races won’t see the same level of movement.

For those tipsters with a large subscriber base, there is zero chance the quoted odds will hold up.

It’s all too common to see a price of 20/1 quoted by a tipster, yet within minutes it’s a best 16/1 or 14/1. Come the morning of the race its 10/1 and it starts at 8/1 SP.

Considering betting profitably is all about value, even a change from 20/1 to 16/1 can and does make a major difference to your bottom line.

Taking 8/1 or 10/1 on a 20/1 shot isn’t worth thinking about neither – and by doing so you are actually more likely to turn a loss than a profit.

The Tipster With Rapid Odds Movement Issues

To give you an example of the type of movement I regularly see on this front, I wanted to share with you stats from some ongoing odds monitoring we are currently undertaking on a popular racing tipster.

I won’t name the tipster in question as this odds monitoring is still ongoing, but I have seen several very positive reviews of his service as published by several other ‘review’ sites already – yet none of them mention his odds movement, which I fear is a major oversight.

This racing tipster advises his tips either the night before racing (8-9pm) or early in the morning of racing (8.30-9am) and to gauge how his prices stand up, we are tracking and comparing the best odds across 3 different metrics as follows:

  • The odds he advises
  • The odds after 15 minutes have elapsed from the time the tip was sent
  • The odds at 10am

Below you can see what the average odds look like in decimal format at each of these 3 metrics so far:

  • The odds he advises: 13.96
  • The odds after 15 minutes have elapsed from the time the tip was sent: 11.96
  • The odds at 10am: 10.85

Exploring these stats further, you can quite clearly see a major drop in the average odds available from those advised and those available after 15 minutes. From 13.96 to 11.96 in 15 minutes is a significant move.

By 10am, these odds have dropped even further down to 10.85 and it has quickly become apparent that they are being extremely well supported.

In terms of profit differences, you would be -9.35% ROI worse off if taking the best price after 15 minutes and -21.78% ROI worse off at 10am.

There is no suggestion that the odds quoted by this tipster are not accurate at the time they send the tips (our tracking also gauges this) but clearly they are going to prove to be very difficult to obtain.

Even if you did get on within the first few minutes of the bets being advised – most bookies would take one look at your betting history and quickly restrict or close your account.

If there is one thing that will get a bookies attention it is constantly backing a horse that drops significantly in price after you get on.

 

Why Odds Tracking Is A Must In ANY Review

The above outlines very neatly exactly why every genuine tipster review MUST feature an element of odds-tracking.

We perform this as standard for every major tipster we review and whilst it is hard-work and time-consuming, it is hugely valuable.

By doing so we can quickly identify those tipsters putting up genuine odds and inform you as to how achievable the odds are (or not).

The tipster I reference above will be reviewed in a forthcoming SBC Magazine once we complete our detailed odds tracking, and as things stand it does seem odds availability is a major issue – something that will prevent us recommending them to our members.

And whilst other reviews published on this tipping service might skirt this issue – we will not as it’s a fundamental problem that needs to be addressed if they wish to be taken seriously as a service.

The good news is that there are several Hall of Fame rated tipsters, whom we rate and recommend here at SBC that do play fair by the odds they quote for subscribers.

If you are keen to find out more on who they are and how they can help you, then you can find more details within our Hall of Fame listings and reviews, which you can gain access to with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Whatever you do though, be very wary of any tipster quoting results based on tips sent the day before racing. Very often you simply can’t match their results in practice!

P.s. If ever in doubt as to whether a tipster puts up genuine odds – be sure to ask them exactly when they put up their tips and how they settle their results. If they are putting them up the evening before racing and making no adjustments for odds movement, I would advise you to give them a miss!

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club.

 

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

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Have You Been Caught Out By These 5 Dodgy Tipster Practices?

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Despite the Smart Betting Club‘s work over the years in trying to clean up and provide some regulation to the betting tipster scene, there are still sadly a number of tipster scams that continue to do the rounds.

Whilst the internet has helped in providing transparency and ease of access to good tipsters, it has also opened up new ways to rip off punters through the likes of social media, where unwitting people continue to get caught out.

To help protect you from some of these scams, I have put together a list of 5 of the most common dodgy tipster ploys to watch out for.

Varying from the outright scandalous to the somewhat dubious, it’s a quick rundown of what you as a punter need to be aware of before you join any tipster service.

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Dodgy Tipster #1 – Selling Others Tips As Your Own

The inspiration for today’s article is the ‘tipster leech’ who sells off the exact same tips from other genuine experts as his own. Unable to figure out a way to win at betting himself, he simply copies others and leeches off the best – yet all the while pretending to be the expert in question.

After a few months, he invariably gets caught out and so constantly needs to reinvent himself and come up with something new for his mailing list (no doubt full of emails purchased without permission)

Not so long ago, I received a suspicious looking email from him advertising a new hyped wonder system and after analysing the ‘claimed’ results, I spotted identical tips as to those we at SBC have received from another genuine long-serving tipster.

It quickly became apparent that he was a subscriber to this tipster and was re-selling the tips on without permission (and at a pretty hefty fee too). Worst of all, he was supplying them later in the day and after much of the value in the bet had actually gone.

I duly notified the tipster in question who identified the culprit pirating the tips and removed him from his service.

Sadly, it won’t be the last I hear from this ‘tipster leech’ as he has been around for years, making up websites and false promises of tipping expertise on a regular basis. It highlights the care you must take when you get an email out of the blue promising the earth from a tipster service, especially one new on the scene.

Dodgy Tipster #2 – Social Media Tipsters

Social Media has come to dominate our lives over recent years and the likes of Twitter and Facebook continue to be a breeding group for tipster scams.

It’s easy to understand why as you can setup a new Facebook page or Twitter account in seconds, put up a bunch of tips and if they win – great, if they lose, just delete it.

This happens regularly, especially with bets like accas, which are hugely popular on Social Media. All you need do is simply create 10 accounts on Twitter or Facebook, put up a slightly different version of an acca on each one and boom, one of them will probably come good each weekend.

Sometimes the social media tipster actually wants you to lose as they take a cut from the losses incurred through bookmaker affiliate links (As when you lose, the bookies win)

It’s one reason we only proof or review tipsters who actually have a genuine website (not just a Social Media account) with at least 12 months of results to work with.

Be very, very careful therefore if you follow tipsters with a social media presence only.

Why Did You Join The Smart Betting Club?

“To find profitable tipsters and to read the guides available for SBC members on profitable betting. Before SBC, I’d followed various other systems and ratings, some successfully, but mostly unsuccessfully. SBC helps steer punters towards profitable and reliable tipsters. It’s great that SBC is independent too”

As written by ‘K’ – An SBC member for several years

Click here to read more from K on his SBC membership experience

Dodgy Tipster #3 – Claiming ‘Inside Information’

It’s the oldest trick in the book – claim to have ‘inside information’ about tips guaranteed to win and asking for people to stump up the cash in the hope of getting in on the action.

The sad reality is that even if accepting the fact there might be a very small number of people who do get inside info on certain horses to win a race – they are never going to share it with a stranger, no matter how convincing they sound or how much they charge.

In all the years working at SBC, we have discovered not one genuine ‘inside info’ based tipster worth bothering with.

They almost exclusively are all-mouth-no-trousers types with one goal – to fleece you of cash.

Dodgy Tipster #4 – Quoting Nonsense Prices With Nonsense Bookies

Sliding down the scale of dubious practices are the tipsters who continuously quote odds with bookies that no-one can realistically obtain.

Those tipsters that put up tips available only with bookies such as Boylesports, who according to the results of our Better Betting Campaign, either closed or severely restricted 82% of all surveyed betting accounts. Download our free Getting On’ Report for more on our campaign and survey that reveal these stats.

At the best of times, punters with even a hint of nous about them stand little or no chance getting on with the likes of Boylesports – even if you do, there is every chance if backing a winner your account will be closed.

Other firms consistently poorly rated for closing or restricting accounts include the likes of Stan James, Betway and Ladbrokes and tips put forward with them might not be obtainable for most punters.

So before you get too excited about any tipster, make sure you note which bookmakers they are quoting prices with. If its one of the four firms mentioned above, the chances of you getting a decent bet on are likely to be limited in the long-run.

Hugh Taylor – Are His Quoted Prices Realistic?

Although he isn’t a dodgy tipster (more one that puts up prices no one can realistically achieve), I have to question the likes of At The Races tipster – Hugh Taylor when he puts up tips with a standout price available only with Boylesports.

Just yesterday he put up Mucho Applause at a standout 50/1 with Boylesports – a horse that saw significant backing all the way into its eventual 16/1 SP (it came 7th). Here is the advice he put forward:

How many of his followers might have taken the 50/1 with Boylesports I wonder? Very few I imagine and those that had won’t find their accounts lasting too long if backing 50/1 shots that start at 16/1 SP.

Dodgy Tipster #5 – Silly Stakes & Results Out of Context

Finally, one of my biggest bugbears are those tipsters who quote profits to silly stakes such as 50 or 100 points, simply to make their profits look big.

It might make a great headline to say…”We made 1000 pts profit last month” but if you had to risk 100,000 points to make that – well its nothing to shout about at all. That is just a 1% return on investment (ROI)

Tipsters that constantly claim results out of context wind me right up because it is so misleading and often it’s a sign they are to avoided at all costs.

As a minimum, from any tipster, you should expect to see full results stats including number of bets, amount staked, total profit and key calculations such as return on investment and return on capital.

Putting their results into an accurate context so you can judge just how good they REALLY are.

That’s The Bad, How About The Good?

Hopefully the 5 points above will give you a good steer on some of the more popular dodgy tipster practices out there currently and what to avoid.

If however, you are looking for actually bonafide, genuine tipsters then here at the Smart Betting Club we can help you.

We work full-time on not only reviewing the best new tipsters, but also tracking the ones that continue to make money betting for SBC members.

Ranking and reviewing each tipster not only by their profits, but also how realistically achievable their odds are, how good their customer service is and many other factors. Click here to read all about our exhaustive review and rating process.

You can read all about the very best tipsters, including the 34 top racing experts we recommend in our very latest Horse Racing Tipster Profit Report.

And for those of you more interested in betting away from racing, you can also find similar reports dedicated to the best football, tennis, US sports and golf tipsters. Full details on all of the reports we provide can be found here.

Best of all you can subscribe instantly and save up to £38 on the cost of a yearly membership currently!

<< JOIN THE Smart Betting Club TODAY >>

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

“90-DAY 100% SATISFACTION MONEY BACK GUARANTEE”……

“I believe so strongly in SBC’s ability to help your betting, you can subscribe with a 100% cast-iron 90-day money back guarantee”.
SBC Editor – Peter Ling     Subscribe Now

Restricted By The Bookies? 10 Expert Betting Exchange Tips (Part 1)

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It is common knowledge these days that if making money betting on horse racing, you will at some point encounter difficulty with either your stakes being restricted or even your bookmaker account being closed.

There are some exceptions to this rule such as the ‘winners welcome’ firm, Black Type and it’s fair to say that each bookmaker approaches it differently (as outlined in our ‘Getting On’ Report last September).

Yet for many punters, one of the most popular places to bet without issue are the betting exchanges.

Which is why I have put together this 2-part guide, featuring 10 betting exchange tips for following racing tipsters.

 

1) Understand When The Money Hits Racing Exchange Markets

As an exchange-only racing punter, it’s important to understand that the vast majority of money only starts to flow into most racing markets approximately 10 to 15 minutes before the off.

(I say most as there are some obvious exceptions such as at Cheltenham or other big race meetings, which will see larger sums traded earlier)

To showcase this, compare the amount of money traded on Betfair for each of these 5 races that took place on Monday the 27th March 2017.

I simply noted down the amount of money traded at 3 time points: 21 minutes, 11 minutes and 1 minute before the off for each of the 5 races.

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Without exception, the most trading took place in the 11 minutes before each race started.

Take the 4.30pm race as one example – at 4.19pm, there was £60,925 traded yet come 4.29pm, this was £495,057.

Within 10 minutes an extra £434,132 had been traded – 87% of the entire market!

The knock-on effect of this is two-fold.

Firstly, its knowing that the majority of trading takes place and when your exchange bet is most likely to be matched.

Secondly, its understanding that prior to the final 10 minutes, it is harder to get your racing bet accepted, especially if it’s based on advice coming from a popular tipster.

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2) Avoid Tipsters That Advise Bets Early

Just as the final 10 minutes leading up to race time sees most of the action on the exchanges, the very early stages of a racing market see very little activity indeed.

All of which makes understanding how far in advance a tipster puts up a bet crucial, because as a general rule – the earlier a tip is put up, the harder it is to get the advised price (and vice versa)

Tipsters who advise tips the evening before racing, often provide you with next to no chance of following if restricted to using the exchanges only.

To give an example, I currently proof one racing tipster that puts up bets around 6pm the evening before racing.

As I write this article I noted they had just put forward a tip at 6/1 for a race at 3.20pm the following day. Immediately jumping to the Betfair market for this race, I found that just £492 had been matched across all 10 runners in this race at that point.

The advised 6/1 price was now as short as 5.1 (4/1) on the exchange so already the value had to a large part disappeared. Obviously a few punters following this tipster had gobbled up what little money there was to be had at 6/1.

It’s a scenario I have seen unfold countless times with this tipster (and it’s the main reason we have not recommended them to SBC members) and they are patently unsuitable to an exchange-only punter.

Yet they are not alone in tipping up so early in advance of a race – so be very careful to avoid such tipsters if limited to exchanges only.

I have made around 20k per year extra”…

I used to work as trader for Paddypower and Sportsbet so i have an obvious interest in betting. [Using Tipsters] I have made around 20k per year extra.”    
As written by Justin – An SBC member since December 2013

Click here to read more from Justin on his SBC membership experience

3) Focus On Tipsters Where The Odds Hold Up

The next point is an obvious one – if using exchanges, don’t follow tipsters where the advised odds are going to get smashed in.

Take for example a free tipster like Hugh Taylor. As soon as he puts up a tip, hundreds of people rush to bet on it and in turn the bookies slash the odds due to the huge volume of money coming in.

Yet, despite this, Hugh still settles his bets at the original advised price he quotes, which only a very small number of punters will have realistically obtained.

In this scenario, there is next to no chance you will get matched on his tips at this price via the exchanges UNLESS the price bounces back. And given how much his odds move downwards, this is highly unlikely to happen too often.

This is why here at SBC we rate all tipsters by ‘odds availability’ and track how their odds move compared to the results they settle to. It helps to identify tipsters you can use on the exchanges.

Take the odds tracking we performed on one tipster first reviewed in November 2016. We tracked over 100 tips and how their advised prices moved immediately and after 15 and 60 minutes had elapsed.

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As the table indicates – the average odds available after 0, 15 and 60 minutes were better than those the tipster was quoting!

Why exactly was this? Well, it went down to the simple fact this tipster was only quoting a price if AT LEAST 3 proper bookmakers were offering it and wasn’t putting the tips up until around midday.

Effectively, you could improve on the quoted odds and ultimately this is exactly the type of tipster you can follow on the exchanges.

4) Consider Betfair SP Tipsters

One of the simplest angles to make a profit on the exchanges is by following tipsters that make a profit at Betfair SP (after commission of course!).

They offer the easiest, most simple approach as once a tip comes in – you simply place the bet, stick in your stake at Betfair and walk away.

Although the number of profitable Betfair SP tipsters is growing, it’s still a fairly small pool to choose from currently.

Alongside All Weather Profits (read all about them and their £1 30 day trial here) I have recently been investigating another racing tipster with a tremendous track-record at Betfair SP.

Over the course of 1092 bets – at simple 1 point level stakes, they have made a 167.3 point profit at 15.3% ROI. This is after 5% Betfair SP commission has been deducted.

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Providing one simple angle for those of you after a simple exchange tipster for you follow.

5) YET…If You Can, Don’t Always Take Betfair SP!

Whilst the Betfair SP angle does work and is good for those of you short of time – you can often get better prices simply by taking a bet on the exchanges closer to the off rather than just Betfair SP – especially when it comes to a popular tipster.

This is because the more people that bet on a horse at Betfair SP, the greater the chance that the final Betfair SP odds will be shorter than they should be. Betfair SP effectively cannabilises itself.

Therefore, if following a ‘Betfair SP’ tipster, my suggestion for optimal profits is to consider placing a bet in the traditional exchange market before the race starts.

This might require you logging onto the exchange in the 15 minutes before the race and simply taking the best price available at this time.

By doing this, you can often get a better edge than simply taking Betfair SP.

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MAKE MONEY WITH TIPSTERS

That’s my first 5 tips done and dusted and I will be back in a few days with 5 more pointers on how to use the exchanges if following tipsters.

In the interim, if you are interested in discovering more on the best tipsters for use on both betting exchanges and with bookmakers, then the Smart Betting Club is here to help you.

Our uniquely detailed reviews, ratings and recommendations will showcase to you the best tipsters across a whole variety of categories including:

  • The Best Horse Racing Tipsters
  • The Best Sports Tipsters
  • The Best Free Tipsters
  • The Best ‘Odds Availability’ Tipsters
  • The Best Betting Bank Growth Tipsters
  • & Much More Besides!

Making it as easy as possible for you to find the right tipsters for you to follow!


<< JOIN THE Smart Betting Club TODAY >>

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

“90-DAY 100% SATISFACTION MONEY BACK GUARANTEE”……

“I believe so strongly in SBC’s ability to help your betting, you can subscribe with a 100% cast-iron 90-day money back guarantee”.
SBC Editor – Peter Ling     Subscribe Now

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The SBC Interviews: Hugh Taylor

Hugh Taylor is a name that strikes fear into many a horse racing odds compiler and he is without doubt one of the most renowned names in the tipping world. His betting record via At The Races is second to none and his tips quite literally can turn betting markets upside down within minutes. When he speaks, people listen and we are delighted to be able to share an exclusive interview with Hugh himself, courtesy of the Smartersig service.

This interview was originally posted on the blog back in February 2011, but such has been the interest in it since then, we thought it well worth re-posting.

The Newmarket Wizards – Hugh Taylor

It has been a while since the last inclusion in the Newmarket Wizards collection. Results on the At The Races web site however prompted me to get in touch with ex Smartie and now resident tipster at ATR, Hugh Taylor. Hugh could be described as the Pricewise of ATR, tipping value horses via the web site at around 10.00am every day. Giving daily tips means his tipping profile quickly builds up and his prowess can be checked via a past results section on the site. Continue reading