Restricted By The Bookies? 10 Expert Betting Exchange Tips (Part 1)

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It is common knowledge these days that if making money betting on horse racing, you will at some point encounter difficulty with either your stakes being restricted or even your bookmaker account being closed.

There are some exceptions to this rule such as the ‘winners welcome’ firm, Black Type and it’s fair to say that each bookmaker approaches it differently (as outlined in our ‘Getting On’ Report last September).

Yet for many punters, one of the most popular places to bet without issue are the betting exchanges.

Which is why I have put together this 2-part guide, featuring 10 betting exchange tips for following racing tipsters.

 

1) Understand When The Money Hits Racing Exchange Markets

As an exchange-only racing punter, it’s important to understand that the vast majority of money only starts to flow into most racing markets approximately 10 to 15 minutes before the off.

(I say most as there are some obvious exceptions such as at Cheltenham or other big race meetings, which will see larger sums traded earlier)

To showcase this, compare the amount of money traded on Betfair for each of these 5 races that took place on Monday the 27th March 2017.

I simply noted down the amount of money traded at 3 time points: 21 minutes, 11 minutes and 1 minute before the off for each of the 5 races.

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Without exception, the most trading took place in the 11 minutes before each race started.

Take the 4.30pm race as one example – at 4.19pm, there was £60,925 traded yet come 4.29pm, this was £495,057.

Within 10 minutes an extra £434,132 had been traded – 87% of the entire market!

The knock-on effect of this is two-fold.

Firstly, its knowing that the majority of trading takes place and when your exchange bet is most likely to be matched.

Secondly, its understanding that prior to the final 10 minutes, it is harder to get your racing bet accepted, especially if it’s based on advice coming from a popular tipster.

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2) Avoid Tipsters That Advise Bets Early

Just as the final 10 minutes leading up to race time sees most of the action on the exchanges, the very early stages of a racing market see very little activity indeed.

All of which makes understanding how far in advance a tipster puts up a bet crucial, because as a general rule – the earlier a tip is put up, the harder it is to get the advised price (and vice versa)

Tipsters who advise tips the evening before racing, often provide you with next to no chance of following if restricted to using the exchanges only.

To give an example, I currently proof one racing tipster that puts up bets around 6pm the evening before racing.

As I write this article I noted they had just put forward a tip at 6/1 for a race at 3.20pm the following day. Immediately jumping to the Betfair market for this race, I found that just £492 had been matched across all 10 runners in this race at that point.

The advised 6/1 price was now as short as 5.1 (4/1) on the exchange so already the value had to a large part disappeared. Obviously a few punters following this tipster had gobbled up what little money there was to be had at 6/1.

It’s a scenario I have seen unfold countless times with this tipster (and it’s the main reason we have not recommended them to SBC members) and they are patently unsuitable to an exchange-only punter.

Yet they are not alone in tipping up so early in advance of a race – so be very careful to avoid such tipsters if limited to exchanges only.

I have made around 20k per year extra”…

I used to work as trader for Paddypower and Sportsbet so i have an obvious interest in betting. [Using Tipsters] I have made around 20k per year extra.”    
As written by Justin – An SBC member since December 2013

Click here to read more from Justin on his SBC membership experience

3) Focus On Tipsters Where The Odds Hold Up

The next point is an obvious one – if using exchanges, don’t follow tipsters where the advised odds are going to get smashed in.

Take for example a free tipster like Hugh Taylor. As soon as he puts up a tip, hundreds of people rush to bet on it and in turn the bookies slash the odds due to the huge volume of money coming in.

Yet, despite this, Hugh still settles his bets at the original advised price he quotes, which only a very small number of punters will have realistically obtained.

In this scenario, there is next to no chance you will get matched on his tips at this price via the exchanges UNLESS the price bounces back. And given how much his odds move downwards, this is highly unlikely to happen too often.

This is why here at SBC we rate all tipsters by ‘odds availability’ and track how their odds move compared to the results they settle to. It helps to identify tipsters you can use on the exchanges.

Take the odds tracking we performed on one tipster first reviewed in November 2016. We tracked over 100 tips and how their advised prices moved immediately and after 15 and 60 minutes had elapsed.

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As the table indicates – the average odds available after 0, 15 and 60 minutes were better than those the tipster was quoting!

Why exactly was this? Well, it went down to the simple fact this tipster was only quoting a price if AT LEAST 3 proper bookmakers were offering it and wasn’t putting the tips up until around midday.

Effectively, you could improve on the quoted odds and ultimately this is exactly the type of tipster you can follow on the exchanges.

4) Consider Betfair SP Tipsters

One of the simplest angles to make a profit on the exchanges is by following tipsters that make a profit at Betfair SP (after commission of course!).

They offer the easiest, most simple approach as once a tip comes in – you simply place the bet, stick in your stake at Betfair and walk away.

Although the number of profitable Betfair SP tipsters is growing, it’s still a fairly small pool to choose from currently.

Alongside All Weather Profits (read all about them and their £1 30 day trial here) I have recently been investigating another racing tipster with a tremendous track-record at Betfair SP.

Over the course of 1092 bets – at simple 1 point level stakes, they have made a 167.3 point profit at 15.3% ROI. This is after 5% Betfair SP commission has been deducted.

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Providing one simple angle for those of you after a simple exchange tipster for you follow.

5) YET…If You Can, Don’t Always Take Betfair SP!

Whilst the Betfair SP angle does work and is good for those of you short of time – you can often get better prices simply by taking a bet on the exchanges closer to the off rather than just Betfair SP – especially when it comes to a popular tipster.

This is because the more people that bet on a horse at Betfair SP, the greater the chance that the final Betfair SP odds will be shorter than they should be. Betfair SP effectively cannabilises itself.

Therefore, if following a ‘Betfair SP’ tipster, my suggestion for optimal profits is to consider placing a bet in the traditional exchange market before the race starts.

This might require you logging onto the exchange in the 15 minutes before the race and simply taking the best price available at this time.

By doing this, you can often get a better edge than simply taking Betfair SP.

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MAKE MONEY WITH TIPSTERS

That’s my first 5 tips done and dusted and I will be back in a few days with 5 more pointers on how to use the exchanges if following tipsters.

In the interim, if you are interested in discovering more on the best tipsters for use on both betting exchanges and with bookmakers, then the Smart Betting Club is here to help you.

Our uniquely detailed reviews, ratings and recommendations will showcase to you the best tipsters across a whole variety of categories including:

  • The Best Horse Racing Tipsters
  • The Best Sports Tipsters
  • The Best Free Tipsters
  • The Best ‘Odds Availability’ Tipsters
  • The Best Betting Bank Growth Tipsters
  • & Much More Besides!

Making it as easy as possible for you to find the right tipsters for you to follow!


<< JOIN THE Smart Betting Club TODAY >>

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

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