Champions League Value Bets: Is there value in an under strength Man U?

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Bayern Munich vs Man City: Man City 21.90% Chance. Value with City.
  • Man U v Basel: Man U 89.60% chance. Small value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Olympiakos: Arsenal 72% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Valencia v Chelsea: Chelsea 38.75% chance. No value with Chelsea. Continue reading

How To Bet: Under/ Over Goal Betting Explained

One of the most popular modern day betting markets is the number of goals in a game – usually the Over/Under 2.5 goals line.

This sometimes confuses people who are new to football betting as there is obviously no such thing as half a goal!

So what exactly are you betting on when it comes to Over or Under 2.5 goals?

Allow me to explain.

What Does 2.5 Goals Mean?

The term 2.5 goals is used because you are betting on one of the following:

  • 2 goals or less being scored (The Under 2.5 goals market)
  • 3 goals or more being scored (The Over 2.5 goals market)

The number 2.5 is used because it falls in the middle of both markets.

You either think a game will be a low scoring one with 2 goals or less OR you think there will be goals a-plenty, with 3 goals or more.

If you bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 then your bet is a winner.

Yet if bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 2-1 or higher, then your bet is a loser.

And as the number of goals on average in a football game hovers around the 2.5 marker (although this varies based on trends, leagues and time of year) then its the usual market on offer.

stop-losing

Over/Under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and More!

The Over/Under 2.5 goals market isn’t the only option available to you though. If we look at the odds for this sample game, we can see a whole range of Over/Under goal lines:

The majority of bookmakers (43) are pricing up the Over/Under 2.5 goals line, but there are also a number at Over/Under +0.5, +1.5, +3.5, and so on.

Although they sound confusing, some of these these lines are actually relatively easy to understand as follows:

  • Over/ Under 0.5 goals means you want either 1 goal (over) or more or no goals (under).
  • Over/ Under 1.5 goals means you want either 2 goals (over) or more or 1 goal or less (under).
  • Over/ Under 3.5 goals means you want either 4 goals (over) or more or 3 goal or less (under).

Other Common Over/Under Goal Lines

The Over/Under lines don’t stop there, as you can often regularly bet on a whole range of other similar markets.

Many bookmakers for example will offer an Over/Under 2 goals betting market. The difference between this and the Over/Under 2.5 goals line is that you get your money back if the game has exactly 2 goals.

Finally to make this just a little more complex, you can also split your stakes by using the Over/Under 2.25 goals market. One half of your stake will go on the 2.5 goals line and the other half on the 2 goals line.

I appreciate this might sound complex so to help explain more, here is a quick summary guide to the different Over/Under lines and what it all means!

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Best Regards,

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Smart Betting Club Editor

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Champions League Value Bets: Can Anyone Beat Barca?

In last year’s Champions League final, Barcelona gave Manchester United a lesson in how to play football. As good as United were, Barca were just untouchable.

As the 2011/2012 builds momentum, there is a lot of talk about how United have learned from that game at Wembley. But can they do it this time or are the Catalans just too strong?

Likely winner & value bets

To help us determine this, the guys at Dectech have calculated the % chance each team has of winning the Champions League this year. This will adjust as the season progresses, but right now, here are their predictions for the main teams and UK interests. We’ve also added the best bookie odds and whether these offer value.
Continue reading

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings Round Up

For the last 10 days, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

See Monday’s post here:

Update: 

Tuesday’s value bets were not as successful as the previous weekends to put it mildly with a lack of under dog victories hurting the record. We covered the draw well enough though and the damage could have been a lot worse if the ratings hadn’t picked out the value here as well.

Still, things could be a lot worse with the record from the current campaign as follows:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Our bets: 

Not much luck with the highlighted bets so far with the wrong handicap choice hurting us again. This time we should have gone with the Double Chance instead of the Draw No bet.

Latvia vs Greece: Latvia Draw No Bet @ 3.75 Bet 365. Draw. Stake Returned. 
Malta vs Georgia: Malta Draw No Bet @ 3.65 Expekt. Draw Stake Returned. 
Denmark vs Norway: Norway Draw No Bet @ 3.00 William Hill. Home Win, Loss. 

The next Euro 2012 games are in October, so next up for the Castrol ratings/ Fink Tank test will be Champions League fixtures next week.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club. 

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol’s ratings

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol's ratings

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

England favourites to beat Bulgaria…But there’s no value in it.

The bookies have England as hot favourites to beat Bulgaria away tonight, but according to Castrol’s ratings, there’s more value in backing Bulgaria.

Last summer we used the Castrol ratings to find value bets in the World cup and had a happy time of it. The final total was +10.49 points from 32 points staked. Click here to check out this tracking experiment.

So for the remainder of the Euro2012 qualifiers, we’ll be tracking where the value lies according to Castrol’s ratings and picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations:

Bulgaria vs England: England 52% chance.
Scotland vs Czech Republic: Scotland 34% chance.
Wales vs Montenegro:  Wales 33% chance.
Northern Ireland vs Serbia: Northern Ireland 16% chance.
Ireland vs Slovakia (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 55% chance. Continue reading

England favourites to beat Bulgaria…But there's no value in it.

The bookies have England as hot favourites to beat Bulgaria away tonight, but according to Castrol’s ratings, there’s more value in backing Bulgaria.

Last summer we used the Castrol ratings to find value bets in the World cup and had a happy time of it. The final total was +10.49 points from 32 points staked. Click here to check out this tracking experiment.

So for the remainder of the Euro2012 qualifiers, we’ll be tracking where the value lies according to Castrol’s ratings and picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations:

Bulgaria vs England: England 52% chance.
Scotland vs Czech Republic: Scotland 34% chance.
Wales vs Montenegro:  Wales 33% chance.
Northern Ireland vs Serbia: Northern Ireland 16% chance.
Ireland vs Slovakia (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 55% chance. Continue reading

Final Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

Update:

It was a storming weekend for the Fink tank ratings, picking up Villa, Spurs and Fulham to win away. The season’s total now stands at 52 points with an ROI of 17%. Not bad at all!

 

This weeks:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The ratings have thrown up some big value in certain games this weekend, but they are probably best taken with a pinch of salt with a very different United team likely to run out against Blackpool.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

 

Final Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

Update:

It was a storming weekend for the Fink tank ratings, picking up Villa, Spurs and Fulham to win away. The season’s total now stands at 52 points with an ROI of 17%. Not bad at all!

 

This weeks:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The ratings have thrown up some big value in certain games this weekend, but they are probably best taken with a pinch of salt with a very different United team likely to run out against Blackpool.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.