England favourites to beat Bulgaria…But there’s no value in it.

The bookies have England as hot favourites to beat Bulgaria away tonight, but according to Castrol’s ratings, there’s more value in backing Bulgaria.

Last summer we used the Castrol ratings to find value bets in the World cup and had a happy time of it. The final total was +10.49 points from 32 points staked. Click here to check out this tracking experiment.

So for the remainder of the Euro2012 qualifiers, we’ll be tracking where the value lies according to Castrol’s ratings and picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations:

Bulgaria vs England: England 52% chance.
Scotland vs Czech Republic: Scotland 34% chance.
Wales vs Montenegro:  Wales 33% chance.
Northern Ireland vs Serbia: Northern Ireland 16% chance.
Ireland vs Slovakia (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 55% chance.

Now lets have a look at tonight’s games and compare Castrol’s predictions to the odds available at the bookmakers. If the bookmakers are offering better odds than the chance implied by the ratings, then its a value bet. The Value % shows how big the value is.

NB We’ve removed any bets where the fave is 1.20 or below.

Value bets: 


Our bets: 

Some of these value levels look way out which provides some note of caution. Here are some bet ideas based on the ratings using Asian handicaps where appropriate to even things out a little. All 1 point level stakes

Belarus vs Bosnia: Belarus Home win @ 2.60 Pinnacle Sports. 
Hungary vs Sweden: Hungary +0.5 handicap (Double chance) @ 2.06 SBO bet.
Ireland vs Slovakia: Ireland Home Win @ 2.0 Paddy Power. (Paddy’s have a money back special on this one too)