A Bookies Nightmare – that’s the theme of our latest Tipster Profit Report focusing exclusively on several very profitable Horse Racing Tipsters that continue to ride a wave of success.
Yet to balance it out today, and with this recent article on Value Betting firmly in my thoughts, I also wanted to outline a couple of reality checks on life following a racing tipster.
Not a reality check in the form of a worry these top rated experts don’t know their stuff. Because they do – the profits they make are real.
But a reality check in terms of what to expect when following a racing tipster
And the very strong reality that even the best betting experts suffer a losing run.
Because experience tells me that when a punter understands this – it becomes so much easier to follow tipsters and to avoid the one thing that catches most unwary punters out – quitting a tipster at exactly the wrong time.
Handling Losses A Rite of Passage For Any Tipster
One of the biggest warning signs I look for when observing a tipster is if they have never had a losing run of some kind.
In my experience, even the very best experts have losing months.
So if I see a racing tipster in business for 30 months, yet every single month has been profitable – well it sets alarm bells that all is not what it seems.
I wonder “Are these results legitimate?” and often when you dig deeper, they aren’t.
Simply because to go 30 months without making a loss in at least a few of them is unrealistic and unprobable.
It’s important to recognise that just because you pay to follow a tipster – this does not mean that they will not suffer occasional losing runs.
They will and its important to understand this.
Let me show you more with a couple of high-profile examples…
1 Winner In 37 Tips From This ‘Expert’
Firstly, lets use focus on ‘Tipster X’ – which is a very long-running racing service with a major edge.
This tipster has made 3669 points profit @ 12.4% ROI over more than 15,000 bets since 2014.
He knows how to make a profit betting and its been a ‘Hall of Fame’ rated service for several years now.
In our Racing Tipster Profit Report, we reported back on his latest progress since our last update, which saw 138 points profit made @ 26.89% ROI from 138 bets between May and August 2019.
A very nice profit indeed.
Yet, that isn’t the full story as within those 138 bets, there was plenty of ups and downs along the way.
Including a run from the 20th July of 38 bets and just 1 winner, during which this tipster lost 66.88 points.
That is a strike-rate of just 2.6%.
Fancy paying a tipster for that!?
Because had you joined on the 20th July or at some point during those 38 bets, you would have every right to question what took place.
Why was this top-rated tipster giving nothing but losers? After all, SBC rate him in their Hall of Fame and you have spent money to join him!
The reality is that this run of 38 losers was just randomness at play and as long as sticking firm, the rewards would flow as indeed they did.
Of the very next 83 bets advised since this run of losers, the service has made a 143.77 point profit.
Making back the 66.68 points lost and adding another 77.09 points profit on top!
This short-term run of losers was over and in some style and had you quit at the wrong time then you would be kicking yourself right now!
1 Winner in 41 From This 2nd ‘Expert’
To highlight how often this kind of thing happens, another highly rated expert we recommend – lets call him Tipster Y also had a similar bad run of form in August 2019.
During one period, he advised 41 bets and found just 1 winner, losing 22.24 points.
That is a strike-rate of just 2.5%.
Imagine paying for that kind of tipping advice!
Yet, despite this loss, over the 4 month period we covered between May and September, he actually made a total profit of 17.61 points @ 16% ROI from 199 bets.
And when you look back to the first 4 months of the year (Jan to April) he also made 41.04 points @ 53.78% ROI from 138 bets.
So the year is very nicely in profit despite this run of 1 winner from 41 at one point in time.
In total, 2019 sits up 58.65 points profit @ 31.36% ROI from 337 bets
Which once again goes to illustrate the need for patience, even with the best experts.
Have A High Odds / Low Strike-Rate Mentality
One thing both Tipster X and Tipster Y have is a focus on bigger price selections.
During their losing runs, the approximate average odds of a tip put forward by Tipster X was 11/1 and Tipster Y 17/2.
When you are backing at higher odds like this, your strike-rate will always be lower and there will be times when it gets really low as we saw with 1 in 38 and 1 in 41 above.
This is something I will be exploring in more detail in a forthcoming article on strike-rates and what to expect, but for now do be aware that the higher the strike-rate, the greater the likelihood of a losing run.
Whatever You Do – Don’t Quit At The Wrong Time!
I wanted to pen this article today not to scare you from using tipsters, but to just help provide some context on the reality of what to expect at times.
Betting professionally is never PROFIT, PROFIT, PROFIT – there will always be challenging times, yet with both the examples of Tipster X and Y above, you can be reassured that they know how to help you win as they have between them over 20 years of doing exactly that.
What I do want to encourage is the simple notion of having a longer-term and more patient mindset and to disabuse the idea that simply because you pay for tips, you will no longer have a bad run.
I do at times come across some punters unaware of this fact and they are likely the type who will have quit Tipster X or Tipster Y at some point during the losing runs I outlined above.
Which of course is exactly the worst thing you can do as significant profits were just around the corner.
Discover More With SBC
If you enjoyed this article and want to know more about the Smart Betting Club’s work reviewing and rating tipsters, you can read more on this at our Tipster Review Process section.
As that outlines, whether it be a horse racing, football, baseball, golf or tennis tipster under the review microscope – we leave no stone unturned in our quest to examine what is on offer and we focus very much on long-term profits.
Not just what a tipster made just last week or in August, but several years and often thousands of thousands of past bets.
Giving re-assurance that when we say a tipster is good, it really is.
Smart Betting Club Founder