By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.
This weekend, we start off with the game at Villa Park, which if the stats are anything to go by, could be one best watched on Ceefax!
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle
I believe it was Gary Lineker who once famously claimed, “If Wimbledon were playing in my back garden, I would draw the curtains”. With Alex McLeish’s teams, not exactly displaying a Brazilian flare, I’d put them in the same category.
Villa have been level at the interval in 10/21 home matches since the start of last season, while Newcastle have been level at half time in 10/21 away matches. It implies roughly a 50/50 chance of a half time draw, but we can get 2.20 with Bet365 & Coral on that outcome.
Under 2.5 goals and 1.5 goals seems a decent option for these low scoring sides so there’s bet potential there. Villa and Newcastle are ranked 3rd and 1st respectively for the number of games going under 2.5 goals in the last twenty games.
I also think the low scoring game could suit and undervalued Newcastle, but draw cover is still a must in this game, so a Newcastle/ draw handicap could be there ticket here.
Bet Suggestions:
0.5 point: Under 2.25 goals – 2.23 12bet.
0.25 point: 1st half draw – 2.20 Bet365 & Coral.
0.25 point: Newcastle +0.5 handicap – 1.97 188bet.
Blackburn vs. Arsenal
Arsene Wenger has been given some breathing space with the last two Arsenal performances, but Saturday’s game against Blackburn should offer a key test. It’s the sort of game that Arsenal ‘should’ win if they are to make back the ground lost in the first few games of the season.
Arsenal don’t exactly have the greatest away record, but against bottom six clubs they do come into their own. Since 2009/20, they have won eight of the last twelve trips to bottom six clubs.
An away win looks likely, but there’s not much room for manoeuvre with 1.95 best odds with William Hill.
Half time might offer something more interesting though with 10 half time leads in their last twelve trips to bottom six clubs. There have also been 7/12 HT/FT Win/Win victories.
Since 09/10 they have won 8/12 trips to bottom 6 clubs with 10 HT leads and 7 win wins. Blackburn themselves have lost 4/6 to top 6 clubs.
Bet Suggestions:
0.5 point: Arsenal to win at Half Time – 2.63 with Stan James.
0.5 point: Arsenal HT/FT Win/ WIN – 3.10 with 188bet.
Fulham vs. Man City
The stats hugely favour goals here. Man City’s recent games have shown that they have the ability to put on a display at home and away. Five of their last seven trips to bottom half sides have had +2.5 goals.
However, it all seems a little too obvious for me and something bugs me about the best over 2.5 goals being as high as 1.93. I still like the bet, but I’ll also cover it with a first half wager. Man City are ranked 2nd in the league for their ability to score first in the first half so there’s another angle there.
Bet Suggestions:
0.5 point: First half over +1 goal – 1.96 Ladbrokes (refund if exactly 1 goal)
0.5 point: Over 2.5 goals – 1.93 12bet
http://www.oddsportal.com is a great place to find the best odds for these bets.
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