Should you bet to win or each way at Betfair SP? A new spin on this age-old question

Monday saw the release of the latest SBC review and the first in our series on profitable betting exchange tipsters as we honed in on the racing guru showing a fine profit at both Betfair SP and bookmaker prices.

Yet as profitable as this service is, one of the dilemmas our review threw up was the old query of –¬†should you back a horse to win or each way?

Its a question as old as betting on racing itself as punters weigh up whether to go for broke and the big win OR to play it safe and get a payout of some kind should the horse finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

What is new is understanding which approach you should take when betting at Betfair SP as the each way market on the exchange is split into two – you bet into the win market and the place market separately.

Posing the updated question…

If betting at Betfair SP, should you back a horse to win or in both the win/place markets?

Allow me to help explain how we approached this dilemma in this new review…

Win only betting returns the highest points profit

Without question, the most profitable angle to follow this particular racing tipster from a points profit basis is to bet on each horse to win outright.

To outline this, below you can see the performance if backing win only at Betfair SP (after commission is deducted):

Betfair SP win only: 827 bets, 430.44 points profit @ 14.25% ROI

And then comparing that with mixing up win and place bets as directly advised by the tipster himself:

Betfair SP win/win & place mix: 827 bets, 290.68 points profit @ 9.63% ROI

On the face of it, this looks an open and shut case. Back all the tips to win and leave it at that.

Yet when we dig a little deeper, things turn out a little differently…

Next step – analysing the worst ‘drawdowns’

What the above doesn’t take into account as that bane of all punters everywhere –¬†losing runs¬†and specifically from our point of view, working out the worst drawdown from peak to trough.

Explained another way, a drawdown is an understanding of what the worst possible run you might suffer actually is….Should you be extremely unlucky and choose to follow this tipster on the very day they start their worst losing run.

Such drawdown figures are essential to understand because just as we always ask a tipster¬†‘what can i make?’¬†– we also need to ask¬†‘what can i lose?‘ should the worst happen.

Without hindsight its impossible to know when a bad run will actually hit – all it can really do is prepare you and make sure you have a bankroll to cover the worst eventuality. And if you think that losing runs don’t happen to us all, even professional punters when betting, well, think again…!

Here then are the worst drawdowns for both the win and win/place method:

Betfair SP win only worst drawdown: 154 points

Betfair SP win/win & place mix worst drawdown: 132 points

If these seem large, don’t be worried as the losses during each of these drawdowns were more then recouped simply with patience and time. No tipster, no matter how good they are is ever invincible and ALL go through drawdowns and losing runs at some time.


The method with the biggest ‘bank growth’

With the above ‘drawdown’ figures alongside the results of our in-house montecarlo simulator (which repeats the profile of each tipster several thousand times), we are then able to come up with an advised betting bank figure for each method.

This betting bank is designed to absorb drawdowns – thus ensuring you never go bust!

For the win only betting approach, we naturally need larger betting banks to cover larger possible drawdowns than the win/place method. And from this information, we can gauge exactly how much betting bank growth (or Return on Capital) we can make per method.

Here is how the 2 approaches stack up from a bank growth perspective:

Betfair SP win only: 142.04% Growth

Betfair SP win/win & place mix: 145.34% Growth

From this we can clearly see that its actually betting in both the win and place markets (effectively each way bets) which produces the most betting bank growth in this scenario. It’s only an extra 3.30% growth but every little counts.

This is because you need a much smaller betting bank if following win & place then if following win only.

And it is this higher bank growth figure you should focus on – not simply always just ‘points profit’.

Individual tipster analysis required

Although in this example, the greatest bank growth came by betting in both the win/place markets rather than win only, this is not always the case.

Such analysis needs to be performed on a tipster by tipster basis as each strategy is different and you need to understand them fully to really maximise your returns.

As ever – putting the profits made by any tipster into context is key – especially when it comes to betting banks

Which is why we pen these detailed reviews to help you maximise the revenue you can make by following any given tipster. We also perform the above analysis on all tipsters reviewed as standard.

If you would like to know more about the Betfair SP tipster featured in this example, you can access our detailed review the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

You can sign-up today at our lowest prices ever Рfrom just £27.99 + VAT per quarter, which provides you with the ENTIRE Smart Betting Club service including all our SBC Magazine, Tipster Profit Reports, Best Tipster Guides, Pro Betting Guides & more.

It’s our best ever SBC membership deal and with our amazing¬†money back guarantee¬†offer you have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club.

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New review alert: The Betfair SP Tipster up 17.78% ROI since 2017 – don’t miss out!

The first review from our forthcoming series on¬†profitable betting exchange tipsters¬†has just been published – and its fair to say this is one article you won’t want to miss out on!

Inside this latest review, we explore in great detail the success enjoyed by this tipster to both bookmaker advised prices and at Betfair SP (after commission) over nearly 850 bets since 2017.

At Betfair SP alone, this tipster has generated a profit of between 374 and 543 points at 12.27% and 17.78% ROI.

The profit differences above depend on whether you wish to follow as a mix of win & place bets on Betfair (effectively mimicking a traditional each way bet) or just win bets only.

You can make more money betting win only than each way, yet as ever you don’t get a payout if your horse finishes in the place money.

If able to bet with bookmakers Рto his fairly quoted odds, he has made a profit of between 768 and 1041 points at 25.16% and 34.11% ROI.

Again these differences are based on whether you prefer to bet each way or to win outright – with the latter much more profitable long-term.

Read The Full SBC Review

As well as exploring the service and its profitability with both bookmakers and the exchanges, our review also discusses:

  • The service staking plan and how it stacks up;
  • The breakdown in performance by odds & where the service makes the greatest profit;
  • A comparison of win vs each way betting to help you decide what’s best for you;
  • The recommended betting bank sizes for each method & how to make the largest growth figures;
  • How best to follow on the exchanges and a possible ‘Hybrid’ method to make the greatest return.

If interested in learning more on this tipster and reading the full 11-page review, you can access it immediately with a Smart Betting Club membership.

You can also discover how to save £97 on the cost of joining this tipster Рthanks to an exclusive Smart Betting Club deal.

Get The Full SBC Membership Package For Just £27.99

If wanting to get started right away and access this review ASAP, you can now join the Smart Betting Club and take advantage of our lowest EVER membership prices for 2019.

From as little as £27.99 + VAT per quarter, you can get started immediately and access the ENTIRE Smart Betting Club service including all our SBC Magazines, Tipster Profit Reports, Best Tipster Guides, Pro Betting Guides & more.

This includes access to our full 13 year back catalogue and no quibble money back guarantee if you join and don’t like what is on offer (unlikely!).

£27.99 per quarter works out at just £2.15 per week Рless than the cost of the Racing Post.

It’s our best ever SBC membership deal and with our amazing¬†money back guarantee¬†offer you have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Subscribe Now to the Smart Betting Club

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club.

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Can this Betting Exchange Football Tipster Help You avoid restrictions?

Last Friday was a big day here at SBC Towers as it saw the release of our very latest magazine (Issue 109), which featured in-depth reviews on 3 new and most importantly, profitable tipsters.

Chief amongst them was our exploration of the major football tipster with 290% betting bank growth since October 2016 and a very easy to follow methodology.

Yet one of the most appealing aspects of this tipster is not just their profitability, but the fact you can follow the tips in on the exchanges РBetfair, Smarkets, Betdaq & Matchbook.

Highlighting this a tipster those of you restricted by the bookmakers might very well wish to consider following.

Allow me to unpack a little bit more background on this tipster and how we know it to be exchange-friendly…

Consistent Profits Over 3 Seasons

First of all, our interest in this tipster is based on his record since he began advising tips back in October 2016, where he has made a 145.7 point profit at 8.1% ROI from 1799 bets.

His strategy during this time has remained very consistent with a strike-rate of 43% and average odds of 2.46 (just a tad under 6/4 in old money). You can see the breakdown of performance in the table below:

You can also view the accumulation of profit over this period of time via the graph below, which charts the points profit over the years. There are no major ups and downs, which indicates a consistent service and the usage of a steady tipping strategy.

All Tips In Major Football Markets

In terms of the markets this tipster focuses on, the vast majority are straight Home or Away bets with 1611 so far at average odds of 2.47, running at a ROI of 7.7%.

He also bulks these tips out with occasional Asian Handicap tips, which are running at an extraordinarily high ROI of 11.6%. A figure we imagine would be unlikely to maintain over a larger data set.

Considering the vast majority of tips are also across mostly ‘major’ football leagues with lots of liquidity (money traded) then this is¬†another major tick in the box from an exchange point of view. This is because there is plenty of money to be matched on the exchanges in these markets.

You can see the breakdown of performance by bet type below:

Quoted Odds That Remain Realistic

When evaluating a tipster, its absolutely critical to track how the quoted odds they put up stand-up in their chosen market. If, for example the quoted odds are slashed downwards within minutes, then it will raise questions as to whether you can match the performance levels claimed.

As is standard practice with all Smart Betting Club reviews, we ran some detailed odds movement tracking to gauge just this – noting how the quoted odds compared from those advised to those available immediately upon receipt of the bet. We also tracked the best odds after 15 minutes, 60 minutes and the closing odds (when the football match started).

First of all, we tracked these odds against those available with a panel of bookmakers only: Bet365, BlackType, Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Pinnacle, SBO Bet and William Hill.

Below you can see the results of this study (It covers a period of 2 months) and how the advised odds compared to what you might have obtained at different time periods.

Of most importance is the ROI Difference (ROI Diff) column, which shows how your performance would have stacked up in comparison.

During this study, we managed to almost match the advised prices if placing the bets immediately.(Received) and would have made 0.2% ROI less overall.

If betting within 15 to 60 minutes of each bet being released, this dropped to between a -0.6% and -0.8% adjustment and if taking closing odds (which isn’t recommended) then the difference would be -1.1% ROI. Suggesting that any difference is very marginal indeed if betting with bookmakers.

Better Profits If Betting On The Exchanges

In addition to tracking the odds using the main bookmaker panel outlined above, we also ran a secondary analysis which compared the odds if using these 3 betting exchanges: Betfair, Smarkets and Matchbook.

Our tracking over the same 2 month period suggested that by using these exchanges you could reasonably expect to increase profitability by 0.5 to 1% ROI

This increase in profitability is simply down to the slightly better odds you can often obtain on the exchanges – especially those offering low commission such as Smarkets and Matchbook.

All of which is very encouraging for those of you looking for a sustainable, exchange based solution – and a keen addition to our list of exchange based tipsters that we recommend to Smart Betting Club members.

More In SBC 109

For more on this tipster, I invite you to read our detailed examination, which is available now in Issue 109 of the Smart Betting Club Magazine Рavailable now to all SBC members. Subscribe now and gain immediate access.

Should you wish to sign-up to this tipster, you can also benefit from a 20% membership extension if signing up by the 8th March 2019. This is available as part of the exclusive deals & discounts we negotiate on behalf of Smart Betting Club members.

Inside SBC 109, you can also read two more in-depth tipster reviews including details on a 2nd football tipster with a 52% strike-rate and the horse racing tipster up over 353 points profit @ 20% ROI.

Discover more on how the Smart Betting Club can help you and your betting.

Major New Football Tipster Reviewed (8.1% ROI From 1800 Bets) In Latest SBC Magazine

The latest SBC Magazine (Issue 109) has just been published featuring 3 new, in-depth tipster reviews including the easy to follow football expert making a big impression.

Having made 145 points profit at 8.1% ROI from 1800 bets, this football tipster has made significant returns backing in the 1X2 market since October 2016.
(His Betting Bank Growth figures are very impressive too, with a 290% increase seen so far)

This is a very professional tipster with no issues in obtaining the quoting odds and best of all, its betting exchange friendly so ideal for those of you unable to bet with restrictive bookmakers. SBC members can also join this tipster and enjoy a 20% bonus on your subscription package.

You can read about this and 2 other winning tipsters in SBC 109 Рwhich is available to download the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

Also inside SBC 109:

Review 2: A 2nd Winning Football Tipster With A 52% Strike-Rate

Read our detailed examination of a second football tipster with a similar long-term record of profitability dating back to 2014. This is a very steady and affordable tipster, charging just £10 a month (or £59 per year via a special SBC member discount) with a 4.2% ROI from 895 bets. That might not sound much to the untrained eye, but in the very competitive football betting world Рits impressive, especially given the markets he works in.

Once again, this is a betting exchange friendly service so it’s ideal for those of you looking for solutions away from traditional bookmakers who might have restricted your account

Review 3: The Racing Guru Up Over 353 Points @ 20% ROI

Our 3rd review in SBC 109 is a very detailed take on a racing tipster with headline profit figures of 353 points @ 20.8% ROI since December 2017. Admittedly there are concerns over odds movement of the quoted prices (all tips are advised between 9 and 10am each day) but it is setup to appeal to those of you looking for a high-volume, low staking tipping option.

How To Get Your Copy Immediately

You can access your own copy of SBC 109 and our entire back catalogue of magazines the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

This includes access to every single tipster review we have ever written (there are literally hundreds available) and all of the Hall of Fame Tipsters we recommend to make you money betting.

Check out some of our latest publications.

You can also enjoy significant discounts on the cost of joining many of these tipsters via our unique Tipster Discounts ‚Äď exclusively available to SBC members only.

Get The Full SBC Membership Package For Just £27.99

You can now join the Smart Betting Club and take advantage of our lowest EVER membership prices for 2019.

From as little as £27.99 + VAT per quarter, you can get started immediately and access the ENTIRE Smart Betting Club service including all our SBC Magazines, Tipster Profit Reports, Best Tipster Guides, Pro Betting Guides & more.

This includes access to our full 13 year back catalogue and no quibble money back guarantee if you join and don’t like what is on offer (unlikely!).

£27.99 per quarter works out at just £2.15 per week Рless than the cost of the Racing Post.

It’s our best ever SBC membership deal and with our amazing¬†money back guarantee¬†offer you have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

Subscribe Now to the Smart Betting Club

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder