Monday saw the release of the latest SBC review and the first in our series on profitable betting exchange tipsters as we honed in on the racing guru showing a fine profit at both Betfair SP and bookmaker prices.
Yet as profitable as this service is, one of the dilemmas our review threw up was the old query of – should you back a horse to win or each way?
Its a question as old as betting on racing itself as punters weigh up whether to go for broke and the big win OR to play it safe and get a payout of some kind should the horse finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th.
What is new is understanding which approach you should take when betting at Betfair SP as the each way market on the exchange is split into two – you bet into the win market and the place market separately.
Posing the updated question…
If betting at Betfair SP, should you back a horse to win or in both the win/place markets?
Allow me to help explain how we approached this dilemma in this new review…
Win only betting returns the highest points profit
Without question, the most profitable angle to follow this particular racing tipster from a points profit basis is to bet on each horse to win outright.
To outline this, below you can see the performance if backing win only at Betfair SP (after commission is deducted):
Betfair SP win only: 827 bets, 430.44 points profit @ 14.25% ROI
And then comparing that with mixing up win and place bets as directly advised by the tipster himself:
Betfair SP win/win & place mix: 827 bets, 290.68 points profit @ 9.63% ROI
On the face of it, this looks an open and shut case. Back all the tips to win and leave it at that.
Yet when we dig a little deeper, things turn out a little differently…
Next step – analysing the worst ‘drawdowns’
What the above doesn’t take into account as that bane of all punters everywhere – losing runs and specifically from our point of view, working out the worst drawdown from peak to trough.
Explained another way, a drawdown is an understanding of what the worst possible run you might suffer actually is….Should you be extremely unlucky and choose to follow this tipster on the very day they start their worst losing run.
Such drawdown figures are essential to understand because just as we always ask a tipster ‘what can i make?’ – we also need to ask ‘what can i lose?‘ should the worst happen.
Without hindsight its impossible to know when a bad run will actually hit – all it can really do is prepare you and make sure you have a bankroll to cover the worst eventuality. And if you think that losing runs don’t happen to us all, even professional punters when betting, well, think again…!
Here then are the worst drawdowns for both the win and win/place method:
Betfair SP win only worst drawdown: 154 points
Betfair SP win/win & place mix worst drawdown: 132 points
If these seem large, don’t be worried as the losses during each of these drawdowns were more then recouped simply with patience and time. No tipster, no matter how good they are is ever invincible and ALL go through drawdowns and losing runs at some time.
The method with the biggest ‘bank growth’
With the above ‘drawdown’ figures alongside the results of our in-house montecarlo simulator (which repeats the profile of each tipster several thousand times), we are then able to come up with an advised betting bank figure for each method.
This betting bank is designed to absorb drawdowns – thus ensuring you never go bust!
For the win only betting approach, we naturally need larger betting banks to cover larger possible drawdowns than the win/place method. And from this information, we can gauge exactly how much betting bank growth (or Return on Capital) we can make per method.
Here is how the 2 approaches stack up from a bank growth perspective:
Betfair SP win only: 142.04% Growth
Betfair SP win/win & place mix: 145.34% Growth
From this we can clearly see that its actually betting in both the win and place markets (effectively each way bets) which produces the most betting bank growth in this scenario. It’s only an extra 3.30% growth but every little counts.
This is because you need a much smaller betting bank if following win & place then if following win only.
And it is this higher bank growth figure you should focus on – not simply always just ‘points profit’.
Individual tipster analysis required
Although in this example, the greatest bank growth came by betting in both the win/place markets rather than win only, this is not always the case.
Such analysis needs to be performed on a tipster by tipster basis as each strategy is different and you need to understand them fully to really maximise your returns.
As ever – putting the profits made by any tipster into context is key – especially when it comes to betting banks
Which is why we pen these detailed reviews to help you maximise the revenue you can make by following any given tipster. We also perform the above analysis on all tipsters reviewed as standard.
If you would like to know more about the Betfair SP tipster featured in this example, you can access our detailed review the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.
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