Footy Star – Finding Value By Opposing The Recreational Punters!

When betting football goal markets, it is well known that the average punter likes to see action and this results in disproportionate levels of wagering on goals to be scored. Both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, ‘BTTS’ paired up with one of the teams to win and other high-scoring outcomes are extremely popular and the majority of the bookies’ action is taken on this side of lines.

As with any value-driven strategy, following the crowd (when it is recreational!) is rarely an optimal strategy. Footy Star do the opposite. With a focus on backing ‘Both Teams To Score – No’ for the majority of their bets, they have built up an extremely impressive record since 2022, as this table attests to:

Where Does The Value Come From?

With this bias in the market as a starting point, Gianluca, the brains behind Footy Star, set out to build models to find the best value in the goals markets. We asked him about his service and this is what he told us:

‘My tips are based on Value, meaning that I do not necessarily look for sure winners but rather look for odds that are higher than the actual probability of the event. I started producing tips in September 2021 and my service has improved and changed its face over time. My original service was based on a high volume of tips, with modest ROI. After having applied a more selective filter, in May 2022 I created “Footy Star” on the Tipstrr platform, which was named as “Best emerging Football Tipster” in 2022 and featured in the second position of the “Best 2023 Football Tipster” ranking.

I apply a statistical model to identify my selections. I am constantly exploring new markets (e.g. I am trying to improve in the Draw market) and new techniques (I am studying new predictive models, including machine learning), but the Footy Star is, by far, my most profitable model.’

Statistical models that have proven to be successful over nearly 1,700 bets, exploiting a key bias in the goal markets and a reflective tipster who is constantly looking to improve – Footy Star ticks a lot of boxes!

The Record 

If you would like to view a line-by-line record for Footy Star, you can do so here.

In summary, the key takeaways from the data include:

  • 1,787 bets have been advised
  • 730 bets have won, with 181 bets voided
  • The strike rate for bets that played their games is 45.97%
  • The average price of selections is 2.752 (around 7/4)
  • 1,755 bets advised were for ‘BTTS – No’, with the remainder of bets made up of Draw No Bet, Under 0.5 goals for a given team and draw selections
  • Return On Investment from following these bets using flat staking stands at 14.69%

This is a table that summarises performance by year:

Bookmakers, Sharp Bookmakers & Exchanges

All bets are sent out with prices cited from soft bookmakers such as William Hill, Paddy Power/Betfair, Bet Victor and Unibet being popular outlets for recommended prices.

Gianluca previously utilised prices from sharp bookmakers (such as Pinnacle) but with practicality essential, he altered this to offer prices from widely available outlets.

It is worth noting that you may be able to get better prices for selections with sharp bookmakers and/or on exchanges. The likes of Pinnacle will offer the majority of markets that Footy Star finds value selections in, whilst exchange value will very much dependent on how prestigious the league is and whether there is the requisite liquidity available.

How To Access These Tips

Footy Star send tips to members via Telegram, the messaging service that is similar to WhatsApp. To join this Telegram Channel, please log-in using your SBC credentials and a link will be available here!

About: Footy Star focuses on the goals markets in football leagues from across the world. ‘BTTS – No’ is by far their most common bet as they look to find games where (at least) one team does NOT score.

Method of Bet Supply: After using the platform Tipstrr previously, tips will now be sent out via Telegram. Alternative methods for sharing selections are being explored and may well be employed in the future.

Bet Timing: What time and day are bets sent? Tips are delivered between 9pm and 11pm (UK time). During weekends with a large number of available fixtures, sometimes tips arrive later than 11pm (especially on Friday and Saturday nights).

Bet Type: Most bets advised are for BTTS – No. Other bet types are employed but they are normally a derivation of this strategy (opposing goals).

Bookmakers: Tips are advised using multiple major UK bookmakers, with the price accompanied by which firm(s) is offering that price. Prices are not taken from sharp bookmakers or exchanges, but are often available depending on the level of the competition and the requisite liquidity.

Number of Bets: Around 80 tips can be expected in a busy month, with quieter months normally seeing between 30 and 40 selections sent out to followers. Saturdays and Sundays see the vast majority of the action.

Staking: A flat staking plan has been employed by Footy Star so far and this is how we will be measuring performance going forward. If you would like to adopt a more blended staking plan (e.g. based on the odds), then initial analysis from the bare data suggests that this would still perform excellently whilst improving Return On Capital (ROC).

Betting Bank Advice: We recommend starting with a 100-points bank.

Gianluca has also asked to include his advice around staking, which is as follows:

1. Decide your starting stake and say that it is equal to 1 point. Start with 100-points bank.

2. keep betting the same stake until your bank reaches 150 points. Do not change the stake if the bank decreases.

3. Once your bank reaches 150 points, put 50 points aside: this is your reserve bank and pretend it does not exist unless you are in trouble. Your new bank starts again at 100 points.

4. Never go below your starting stake. But from now on, if the bank increases, you can increase the stake as well (dividing your current bank by 100).

5. Every X months, if the bank has increased remember to withdraw some money for you to spend as you prefer!