Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol’s ratings

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol's ratings

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

Football Betting: The State of the Nation

In this special blog posting, SBC Editor Greg Gordon, himself a scout and proven football tipster from the Scottish leagues as well as a deep thinker on the sport helps examine the state of the modern game from a betting and tipping perspective.

Where We’ve Been

As Sir Alex Ferguson might say: “Football, bloody hell!” Another season over but after 10 months where the front page coverage dominated the back pages it’s a hard one to weigh up.

Amidst Rooney-gate and ref strikes, mail bombs and super injunctions occasionally some football did actually break out.

Barcelona confirmed their pre-eminence in the world game with a panache no-one else will likely match, for as long as the Catalonians’ retain their focus.

Elsewhere winners appeared to emerge almost by default and it wasn’t just some leading tipsters who endured a season of two distinct halves.

In The Bundesliga virtually every club changed their manager at some stage – contributing nothing to a muddling competition that was as dull in the second half as it had been exhilaratingly car crash before the winter shutdown. After losing The Carling Cup final, Arsenal’s points-per-game total thereafter put them in 14th – below Wigan, Wolves and Blackburn as they ‘earned’ another fourth placed finish from a season that had intermittently promised more.

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Why England always lose at football

I’ve recently been thumbing my way through a brilliant book called ‘Why England Lose & Other Curious Football Phenomena Explained’, which has inspired me to think differently about my betting on the beautiful game.

Now you would think a book entitled ‘Why England Lose’ might just contains 2 words… “Emile and Heskey”… but actually it tackles many of our (often wholly baseless) theories on football. Most England fans for example think that we underperform on the national stage, but as the book explains…as a nation we actually if anything do better than the stats say we should!

Beyond just England though, the book reveals some great stats for betting, such as the fact that home advantage globally is worth a head-start of roughly 2/3rds a goal per game. It’s not going to be bed time reading for the likes of Robbie Savage, but it is a great read if you like to think beyond footballing clichés.

Thankfully though you don’t need a master’s degree in Economics like Arsene Wenger to make use of stats in football (or even know how to sign a half-decent goalkeeper). Here are some ready to use resources and tips on how to apply them to your betting.

The Fink Tank Ratings

The Fink Tank ratings provided by the boffins at Dectech, bring together a number of factors to assess the percentage probability of a particular team winning, drawing or losing. We’ve been keeping track of the performance of these ratings here: https://smartbettingclub.com/blog/category/fink-tank/

Our test is simple, if the predicted chance of success is better than that implied by the bookies, you take the bet. So far the approach is working very well with a return of 31.55 points for the season with an ROI (Profit on Turnover) of 13%.

Kick off Percentage Stats

I was also put onto another great resource to help you with this in the form of http://www.kickoff.co.uk/, which lists the percentage chances in each Premier League game using easy on the eye pie charts.

They’ve also got a neat little tool which converts the percentage predictions into odds for you and vice versa. For example a 10%chance equates to 9/1 and this can be really useful for working out your bets.

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