Rocket Scientists Look Away – Football Betting Made Easy

When I tell people about my gambling activities, their reaction usually follows a three step pattern:

  1. Concern for my well being.
  2. Intrigued that you can actually make money betting.
  3.  Laugh and say it all sounds a bit complex to them – They’ll stick to betting on the horse with the funniest name in the Grand National.

But you don’t need a degree in rocket science to make money, especially with football betting. In fact I’ll prove it to you….

An Easy To Follow Football Tipster

Take for example the football tipster service we reviewed in our latest Smart Betting Club magazine (published earlier this week), which is simplicity itself to follow.

They are a long-established football match-ratings and betting advice service who have developed a huge database on the sport. You can follow them in 2 ways…

  1. Follow some of their established football systems and pick up their tips each week. OR
  2. Use their database and ratings to build your own football systems.

The focus of our review was on two of these established football systems, both of which have excellent results and are extremely easy to follow. Allow me to reveal more… Continue reading

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading

Are Man United more dangerous after a shock defeat?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

Manchester United didn’t just lose against Man City, they were demolished. They suffered their worst home defeat last weekend since the formation of the Premier League, and in the process drifted out to 2/1 second-favourites to be lifting the trophy in May.

A popular theory is that this makes United more dangerous to their opponents in their next game because they are looking to avenge their loss.

But is this true?

We have examined the data across Europe’s Big 5 leagues to find out if there are any trends that might point to an instant return to form for United this weekend against Everton. Continue reading

How to spot when teams are over-performing

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover.  Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading

The Latest SBC Sports Betting Magazine Out Now

If you are keen to take your own betting to the next level, then our latest Sports Betting magazine (Issue 64) might well be right up your street.

It includes our three part essential guide to in play football betting, which we have been showcasing samples of in recent blog posts, as well as a host of tipster reviews, interviews and profitable strategies to follow.

    • Part 1 of the in play guide tackles the brave new world of in-play betting, featuring strategies, practical advice and analysis on every part of sports betting’s biggest growth area.

    Continue reading

    The SBC Interviews: Goran Trpevski

    Goran Trpevski is the creator of Goran’s Live Bets, one of the few tipster services that takes advantage of in play football betting, where he has a superb track record of making money.

    Here, in an exclusive interview extract, he gives us the low down on his approach to betting live and in play and how he makes it work. Continue reading

    How To Bet: Under/ Over Goal Betting Explained

    One of the most popular modern day betting markets is the number of goals in a game – usually the Over/Under 2.5 goals line.

    This sometimes confuses people who are new to football betting as there is obviously no such thing as half a goal!

    So what exactly are you betting on when it comes to Over or Under 2.5 goals?

    Allow me to explain.

    What Does 2.5 Goals Mean?

    The term 2.5 goals is used because you are betting on one of the following:

    • 2 goals or less being scored (The Under 2.5 goals market)
    • 3 goals or more being scored (The Over 2.5 goals market)

    The number 2.5 is used because it falls in the middle of both markets.

    You either think a game will be a low scoring one with 2 goals or less OR you think there will be goals a-plenty, with 3 goals or more.

    If you bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 then your bet is a winner.

    Yet if bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 2-1 or higher, then your bet is a loser.

    And as the number of goals on average in a football game hovers around the 2.5 marker (although this varies based on trends, leagues and time of year) then its the usual market on offer.

     

    Over/Under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and More!

    The Over/Under 2.5 goals market isn’t the only option available to you though. If we look at the odds for this sample game, we can see a whole range of Over/Under goal lines:

    The majority of bookmakers (43) are pricing up the Over/Under 2.5 goals line, but there are also a number at Over/Under +0.5, +1.5, +3.5, and so on.

    Although they sound confusing, some of these these lines are actually relatively easy to understand as follows:

    • Over/ Under 0.5 goals means you want either 1 goal (over) or more or no goals (under).
    • Over/ Under 1.5 goals means you want either 2 goals (over) or more or 1 goal or less (under).
    • Over/ Under 3.5 goals means you want either 4 goals (over) or more or 3 goal or less (under).

    Other Common Over/Under Goal Lines

    The Over/Under lines don’t stop there, as you can often regularly bet on a whole range of other similar markets.

    Many bookmakers for example will offer an Over/Under 2 goals betting market. The difference between this and the Over/Under 2.5 goals line is that you get your money back if the game has exactly 2 goals.

    Finally to make this just a little more complex, you can also split your stakes by using the Over/Under 2.25 goals market. One half of your stake will go on the 2.5 goals line and the other half on the 2 goals line.

    I appreciate this might sound complex so to help explain more, here is a quick summary guide to the different Over/Under lines and what it all means!

    Learn More With A Smart Betting Club Membership

    If you enjoyed this article, you can find more like this in the in-depth Pro Gambler Blueprint supplied to all new Smart Betting Club members, which provides everything you need to set up your betting properly.

    This 100-page blueprint features advice and guidance from seasoned professional gamblers in seven easy to follow sections:

    • Part One: Solid Foundations – Avoid common newbie mistakes by getting your betting off on the right foot.
    • Part Two: Money Matters – Betting bankroll management and how to maximise your profits
    • Part Three: Mindset and What Makes A Winner– Key lessons on what really matters from betting pro’s
    • Part Four: What To Bet On – Football and Horse Racing absolute essentials
    • Part Five: Being Realistic – Tipsters or Systems? How to decide what suits you best
    • Part Six: You’re The Boss – How to develop your own betting niche and become your own expert
    • Part Seven: Bookie Bashing – How to keep under the bookmaker’s radar

     

    Subscribe Now & Gain Instant Access!

    We have over 11 years experience of helping people make money betting and have plenty on offer to help you make 2017 your best punting year yet.

     

    moneyBackBanner3

    Best Regards,

    Peter Ling
    Smart Betting Club Editor

    pete

     

     

     

    Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol's ratings

    Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

    The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

    Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol’s ratings

    Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

    The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading