How to spot when teams are over-performing

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover.  Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading

The Latest SBC Sports Betting Magazine Out Now

If you are keen to take your own betting to the next level, then our latest Sports Betting magazine (Issue 64) might well be right up your street.

It includes our three part essential guide to in play football betting, which we have been showcasing samples of in recent blog posts, as well as a host of tipster reviews, interviews and profitable strategies to follow.

    • Part 1 of the in play guide tackles the brave new world of in-play betting, featuring strategies, practical advice and analysis on every part of sports betting’s biggest growth area.

    Continue reading

    The SBC Interviews: Goran Trpevski

    Goran Trpevski is the creator of Goran’s Live Bets, one of the few tipster services that takes advantage of in play football betting, where he has a superb track record of making money.

    Here, in an exclusive interview extract, he gives us the low down on his approach to betting live and in play and how he makes it work. Continue reading

    How To Bet: Under/ Over Goal Betting Explained

    One of the most popular modern day betting markets is the number of goals in a game – usually the Over/Under 2.5 goals line.

    This sometimes confuses people who are new to football betting as there is obviously no such thing as half a goal!

    So what exactly are you betting on when it comes to Over or Under 2.5 goals?

    Allow me to explain.

    What Does 2.5 Goals Mean?

    The term 2.5 goals is used because you are betting on one of the following:

    • 2 goals or less being scored (The Under 2.5 goals market)
    • 3 goals or more being scored (The Over 2.5 goals market)

    The number 2.5 is used because it falls in the middle of both markets.

    You either think a game will be a low scoring one with 2 goals or less OR you think there will be goals a-plenty, with 3 goals or more.

    If you bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 then your bet is a winner.

    Yet if bet on less than 2.5 goals and the game finishes 2-1 or higher, then your bet is a loser.

    And as the number of goals on average in a football game hovers around the 2.5 marker (although this varies based on trends, leagues and time of year) then its the usual market on offer.

     

    Over/Under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and More!

    The Over/Under 2.5 goals market isn’t the only option available to you though. If we look at the odds for this sample game, we can see a whole range of Over/Under goal lines:

    The majority of bookmakers (43) are pricing up the Over/Under 2.5 goals line, but there are also a number at Over/Under +0.5, +1.5, +3.5, and so on.

    Although they sound confusing, some of these these lines are actually relatively easy to understand as follows:

    • Over/ Under 0.5 goals means you want either 1 goal (over) or more or no goals (under).
    • Over/ Under 1.5 goals means you want either 2 goals (over) or more or 1 goal or less (under).
    • Over/ Under 3.5 goals means you want either 4 goals (over) or more or 3 goal or less (under).

    Other Common Over/Under Goal Lines

    The Over/Under lines don’t stop there, as you can often regularly bet on a whole range of other similar markets.

    Many bookmakers for example will offer an Over/Under 2 goals betting market. The difference between this and the Over/Under 2.5 goals line is that you get your money back if the game has exactly 2 goals.

    Finally to make this just a little more complex, you can also split your stakes by using the Over/Under 2.25 goals market. One half of your stake will go on the 2.5 goals line and the other half on the 2 goals line.

    I appreciate this might sound complex so to help explain more, here is a quick summary guide to the different Over/Under lines and what it all means!

    Learn More With A Smart Betting Club Membership

    If you enjoyed this article, you can find more like this in the in-depth Pro Gambler Blueprint supplied to all new Smart Betting Club members, which provides everything you need to set up your betting properly.

    This 100-page blueprint features advice and guidance from seasoned professional gamblers in seven easy to follow sections:

    • Part One: Solid Foundations – Avoid common newbie mistakes by getting your betting off on the right foot.
    • Part Two: Money Matters – Betting bankroll management and how to maximise your profits
    • Part Three: Mindset and What Makes A Winner– Key lessons on what really matters from betting pro’s
    • Part Four: What To Bet On – Football and Horse Racing absolute essentials
    • Part Five: Being Realistic – Tipsters or Systems? How to decide what suits you best
    • Part Six: You’re The Boss – How to develop your own betting niche and become your own expert
    • Part Seven: Bookie Bashing – How to keep under the bookmaker’s radar

     

    Subscribe Now & Gain Instant Access!

    We have over 11 years experience of helping people make money betting and have plenty on offer to help you make 2017 your best punting year yet.

     

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    Best Regards,

    Peter Ling
    Smart Betting Club Editor

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    Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol’s ratings

    Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

    The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

    Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol's ratings

    Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

    The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

    Football Betting: The State of the Nation

    In this special blog posting, SBC Editor Greg Gordon, himself a scout and proven football tipster from the Scottish leagues as well as a deep thinker on the sport helps examine the state of the modern game from a betting and tipping perspective.

    Where We’ve Been

    As Sir Alex Ferguson might say: “Football, bloody hell!” Another season over but after 10 months where the front page coverage dominated the back pages it’s a hard one to weigh up.

    Amidst Rooney-gate and ref strikes, mail bombs and super injunctions occasionally some football did actually break out.

    Barcelona confirmed their pre-eminence in the world game with a panache no-one else will likely match, for as long as the Catalonians’ retain their focus.

    Elsewhere winners appeared to emerge almost by default and it wasn’t just some leading tipsters who endured a season of two distinct halves.

    In The Bundesliga virtually every club changed their manager at some stage – contributing nothing to a muddling competition that was as dull in the second half as it had been exhilaratingly car crash before the winter shutdown. After losing The Carling Cup final, Arsenal’s points-per-game total thereafter put them in 14th – below Wigan, Wolves and Blackburn as they ‘earned’ another fourth placed finish from a season that had intermittently promised more.

    Continue reading

    Why England always lose at football

    I’ve recently been thumbing my way through a brilliant book called ‘Why England Lose & Other Curious Football Phenomena Explained’, which has inspired me to think differently about my betting on the beautiful game.

    Now you would think a book entitled ‘Why England Lose’ might just contains 2 words… “Emile and Heskey”… but actually it tackles many of our (often wholly baseless) theories on football. Most England fans for example think that we underperform on the national stage, but as the book explains…as a nation we actually if anything do better than the stats say we should!

    Beyond just England though, the book reveals some great stats for betting, such as the fact that home advantage globally is worth a head-start of roughly 2/3rds a goal per game. It’s not going to be bed time reading for the likes of Robbie Savage, but it is a great read if you like to think beyond footballing clichés.

    Thankfully though you don’t need a master’s degree in Economics like Arsene Wenger to make use of stats in football (or even know how to sign a half-decent goalkeeper). Here are some ready to use resources and tips on how to apply them to your betting.

    The Fink Tank Ratings

    The Fink Tank ratings provided by the boffins at Dectech, bring together a number of factors to assess the percentage probability of a particular team winning, drawing or losing. We’ve been keeping track of the performance of these ratings here: https://smartbettingclub.com/blog/category/fink-tank/

    Our test is simple, if the predicted chance of success is better than that implied by the bookies, you take the bet. So far the approach is working very well with a return of 31.55 points for the season with an ROI (Profit on Turnover) of 13%.

    Kick off Percentage Stats

    I was also put onto another great resource to help you with this in the form of http://www.kickoff.co.uk/, which lists the percentage chances in each Premier League game using easy on the eye pie charts.

    They’ve also got a neat little tool which converts the percentage predictions into odds for you and vice versa. For example a 10%chance equates to 9/1 and this can be really useful for working out your bets.

    Continue reading