Monetos – Daily In-Play Football Bets with an Exchange Edge

5.38% ROI with Bet365; 10.15% ROI on the Betfair Exchange!

Football is a notoriously difficult sport to profit from, with single-digit ROIs being seen as more than respectable.

In-play betting on the sport is even more fraught with danger: higher overrounds, live coverage delays and thousands of data points can give bookmakers what seems to be an insurmountable advantage. It’s why so many bookmakers LOVE in-play betting and punters who bet into in-play markets as they know they have a significant edge.

Well, Monetos are defying the odds in a David vs. Goliath fashion. A service purely focused on in-play football markets, they have built up an excellent record with bookmakers and exchanges since 2022.

Sign-Up Now Via Telegram

Access to the private Telegram group for Monetos’s selections costs 40 Euros per month (around £32 at the time of writing).

You can sign up using this link which will open up the Telegram App (or request you install it first) on either your computer/phone.

The Live Football Experts!

Run by a group of four professional punters from Denmark, Monetos use analytics and their considerable experience to derive an edge in the in-play markets.

The team started out as a podcast in 2020 and from there, they developed a members only tipping channel through Telegram – a service that remains relatively unchanged today.

The team focus on ‘major’ football betting markets, with 1X2, Over/Under goal lines and Asian Handicaps making up the majority of their plays. Alongside this, larger liquidity leagues make up the majority of their tips, with EPL, Champions League and Bundesliga bets being complemented by some plays in ‘second and third’ tier leagues (such as the Danish Superliga).

All bets are shared using Telegram and as you would expect with an in-play service, getting on quickly is essential. Midweek evenings and weekends are the most regular times for bets to come through as this is when most action from their primary leagues take place.

Their Profitable Record

Monetos tip (and track) prices using odds from Bet365 and so we will start by looking at that record before analysing what our more detailed proofing revealed below.

The Bet365 record is as follows, with nearly 1,500 bets providing a ROI of 5.38%:

With the majority of bets being advised at prices up to 3.00 (or 2/1), this profit has been obtained in a relatively ‘steady’ fashion, with dramatic spurts of bank growth or drawdowns rare. This is demonstrated in the line graph below:

Using the 100 point bankroll that we advise for this service, we can see how solid and consistent the profits are in another context by looking at the ROC figures for Monetos. For those looking for a low variance service with strong bank growth, this table demonstrates that Monetos could be suitable:

When considering all of these numbers it is worth contextualising them with the service’s fairness policy. If a bet is advised and action takes place in the next 30 seconds that impacts on the bet odds/outcome, that bet will be voided from the record so that customers aren’t put at a disadvantage vs. the published record.

An example of this could be a 70 minute selection for ‘Over 1.5 goals’ in a game where one side has a 1-0 lead. If a goal is scored immediately after the bet is sent out, this bet would not appear on Monetos’s records.

Alternative Outlets To Bet365

As previously mentioned, Monetos track and tip using Bet365 prices but our proofing allowed us to broaden analysis out to record results against different bookmakers (soft and sharp), alongside some exchange tracking.

This table reveals what we found regarding price availability:

At first glance, using Betfair for all of Monetos’ bets may appear to be the optimal strategy but our analysis in the SBC Magazine of April 2024 provided some caveats to this, with this pertinent advice for anyone considering the service:

‘The one consideration for those of you considering using on the exchanges is the likelihood that not all the markets put forward by Monetos will have enough liquidity to realistically take all the time.

We estimate that 50% of the advised bets are in what we term ‘major betting’ markets such as Premier League, Champions League, Bundesliga etc. Top tier markets which will be widely available on all bookmakers and exchanges that offer live odds (effectively all of them).

That being said, there is a high likelihood that a proportion of the other 50% of the bets might not have enough exchange liquidity available to fully maximise what you take. They are on offer via Bet365 so that will always be an option and there are lots of other bookmakers which will offer the same markets and odds, including Pinnacle. Yet we are not sure that friendly matches or lower level Scandinavian football will have quite the same exchange coverage.’

The main conclusion that we can draw here is that, as ever, having a suite of soft and sharp bookmakers alongside exchange access will result in beating the baseline ROI that Monetos record using Bet365 prices. ‘Industry Best’ bookmaker prices knock the ROI up 2.44% points to 7.82% and purely using the Betfair Exchange nearly doubled the ROI in the sample that we proofed.

It is worth noting at this point that this is the first in-play service that we have proofed and that the fast-moving nature of the bets (and odds movements) do present challenges from a tracking point of view. Reading SBC Magazine Issue #141 from April 2024 is definitely advisable for deeper analysis as we explored this challenge in more detail there.

Additional Benefits

Another consideration that is becoming increasingly important with any tipster service is how bookmakers react to any action taken.

The good news here is that as the operators know how much of an advantage they have in this type of betting, they often see in-play betting as recreational and unlike with something like 1×2 markets, it is hard to measure the Closing Line Value (CLV).

This is excellent for a follower of a service of Monetos for three key reasons:

Any profitable betting is likely to be seen as lucky and should not draw too much attention to your account(s)
Profit & Loss is the only reliable metric to judge these bets as it is extremely difficult to measure the bets in any other way (like bookmakers do for say horse racing)
If your account is looked at by a trader or the risk management department, they will see in-play action, which could actually prolong your account, even if you are taking sharp action in other areas.

Service Nuts & Bolts

Here are more key information about Monetos’s service:

Bet timing: You will any bets in-play for specific football games. Most bets will be sent out during the evening for midweek games with Saturday’s and Sunday’s selections dependent on kick-off times.

Bet type: Bets will be win singles for the in-play football markets.

Bookmakers: Access to a range of soft bookmakers, sharp bookmakers and exchanges would be ideal to get the best prices. The majority of bets can be backed in liquid exchange markets.

Number of bets: 50 to 60 bets a month.

Betting bank: We advocate a 100 point bank for this service.

Sign Up Now – Join The Monetos Telegram Group!