Football Tipsters

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

Posted on by Dan

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading →

The Free Bets That Would Have Grown Your Bank By 116%

Posted on by Mike

One question we are often posed here at the Smart Betting Club refers to what type of bets a keen punter should look to focus on if he wants to be a success, especially when betting on Football.

Very often the simple answer for this is…look at the type of bets the bookmakers advertise and then go nowhere near them!

Because if you were to login to a bookies website or visit your local turf accountant shop, you would quickly notice the type of bets they advertise, which are in markets such as…

  • First goalscorer
  • Correct score
  • Refunds if a certain player scores the winner

It isn’t because bookmakers have suddenly seen the light and actually want you to win money, but more the fact they know these type of bets are very hard to call.

The bottom line is these type of bets pay for bookies to go on holiday…or more likely these days,  swell the shareholders coffers!

Therefore the next question that might fall from your lips could well be…

So what bets should you look for when football betting? Continue reading →

Will boring Villa scupper Man City's hot streak?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Will boring Villa scupper Man City’s hot streak?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Sample two Smart Betting Club Magazines Free

Posted on by Mike

To give you an idea of what it is like to be a Smart Betting Club member, you can now download two free SBC betting magazines for free.

Each month, we publish TWO monthly betting magazines, one devoted to Sports Betting (with a main focus on football) and the other to Horse Racing.

Each magazine is jam-packed with all you need to make money betting and you can download a sample of each to check out the quality of our work.

Download a free Horse Racing magazine – Click Here

Download a free Sports Betting magazine – Click Here

These special previews contain… Continue reading →

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Ireland to Edge Armenia

Posted on by Dan

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

42 bets
42 points staked
-3.76 points
-8.95% ROI.

Something of a wipeout last week for the ratings if taking a value betting approach and following them blindly. Highlights were the value found in Wales and the draw in the Italy vs Serbia game. They did at least indicate that there was no value in backing England against Montenegro. Our suggested bets which use a little more discretion and handicaps to even out the game didn’t fare much better. A lot of the games went against the favourites, but there wasn’t much joy for the underdog last weekend. Continue reading →

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Why Liechtenstein offer value against the Scots

Posted on by Dan

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Today’s matches: 

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations by the Castrol ratings:

Montenegro vs England: England 57% chance (No value).
Liechtenstein vs Scotland: Scotland 65% chance (No value).
Wales vs Switzerland: Wales 32% chance (Value).
Nothern Ireland vs Estonia: Nortern Ireland 47% chance (No value).
Andorra vs Ireland (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 88% chance. (No Value). Continue reading →

Should You Bet On Cards For A Dirty Derby?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Many supporters see derby matches as the biggest games of the season, which are often wrought with competitiveness and intensity. Unsurprisingly, spread betting firms and bookmakers will raise their usual buy-sell prices by anything up to 20 points, but should they?

The Premier League has the lowest number of bookings per game than any of the other top divisions in Europe. Over the past eight seasons the average game has seen 3.10 yellow cards and 0.16 red cards (or 35.1 booking points). In contrast La Liga games have averaged a whopping 61.0 booking points since the start of the 2003/04 season, with 5.2 yellow and 0.35 red cards per game. Continue reading →

Champions League Value Bets: Is there value in an under strength Man U?

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Bayern Munich vs Man City: Man City 21.90% Chance. Value with City.
  • Man U v Basel: Man U 89.60% chance. Small value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Olympiakos: Arsenal 72% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Valencia v Chelsea: Chelsea 38.75% chance. No value with Chelsea. Continue reading →

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings Round Up

Posted on by Dan

For the last 10 days, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

See Monday’s post here:

Update: 

Tuesday’s value bets were not as successful as the previous weekends to put it mildly with a lack of under dog victories hurting the record. We covered the draw well enough though and the damage could have been a lot worse if the ratings hadn’t picked out the value here as well.

Still, things could be a lot worse with the record from the current campaign as follows:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Our bets: 

Not much luck with the highlighted bets so far with the wrong handicap choice hurting us again. This time we should have gone with the Double Chance instead of the Draw No bet.

Latvia vs Greece: Latvia Draw No Bet @ 3.75 Bet 365. Draw. Stake Returned. 
Malta vs Georgia: Malta Draw No Bet @ 3.65 Expekt. Draw Stake Returned. 
Denmark vs Norway: Norway Draw No Bet @ 3.00 William Hill. Home Win, Loss. 

The next Euro 2012 games are in October, so next up for the Castrol ratings/ Fink Tank test will be Champions League fixtures next week.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club.