Betting Expertise

From novice to pro – beat bookmaker restrictions and develop your betting in five easy steps!

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From novice to pro – beat bookmaker restrictions and develop your betting in five easy steps!

What’s that statistic about 99% of all gamblers being losing gamblers?

It’s no wonder that the bookmakers spend so much money on advertising their company on television.  They’re desperate for more and more mug punters who will ‘do’ their cash betting on accas, scorecasts or via their FOBT machines.

But what if you’re one of the 1% who isn’t a mug punter, and you start to make some real money from your betting?  And what if you follow some of the expert tipsters we have reviewed and shown to be massively profitable over the long term?  What then?  Are the bookmakers so accommodating to you when you’re taking a consistent and reliable income from them?

No, they’re not!  Far from it in fact as sadly it’s all too well known these days that some bookmakers restrict and close winning accounts.  These bookies are not stupid. Winning punters are bad for business if you are a bookmaker, especially when you consider the very easy money they make from FOBT machines or their online casino.

So how useful would it be to have the help and insight of people who have grown their betting from scratch into something that produces a considerable income?

Grow Your Profits And Expand Your Betting

So what happens when the big bookies identify you as a threat and single you out for their special treatment?

Well first of all, you’ll try to place a bet, quite likely not a particularly big one, and you’ll see a little message spring up telling you that your stake is too big.  And I’m not talking thousands on a 33/1 shot here as in actual fact, it may be as little as a tenner each way at 5/1. (even though Paddy Power have delusions that it only applies to people looking to win £1.5 million….Yeah right Paddy!!)

You see the bookmaker is controlling their liabilities.  They’ll let you win £20 or £30 perhaps, but no more.  And the trouble is, once this process starts, you’re on the sure and steady path that ultimately leads to an email from the bookie saying they are no longer letting you place any bets.  They’ll tell you it’s a trader’s decision, and that’s it.  Nothing by way of further explanation.

Is this annoying?  Yes, very!

Does it mean the end of your betting and profits?  Absolutely not!

It IS still possible to make a good second income, or even primary income, from following good, proven tipsters. 

Here’s how…

55 Top Tipsters Rated, Reviewed and Ranked - SBC TPR October

From Novice To Pro In 5 Easy Steps

In the special Bookie Guide we released  last year, we ran a series of in depth articles aimed at helping members avoid bookmaker restrictions for as long as possible (more on that later).  We also provided a guide to the five stages of developing a betting portfolio in such a way that you need not worry about bookmaker restrictions when they do eventually strike.
  • Step 1: Starting out – new accounts free of restrictions; a time for high ROI following top racing services. 
  • Step 2: Diversification – laying the foundations for future growth by introducing football and sports betting. 
  • Step 3: Shifting the focus – as restrictions begin to bite, more concentration on sports betting allows bigger stakes and more income. 
  • Step 4: ROI for show, ROC for dough – how your ROI will fall, but your bottom line profits will grow. 
  • Step 5: Scalable markets – identify where your stakes can get bigger and bigger as your turnover expands. 

Diversification is everything when it comes to investing, and that’s what our betting is, right?  An investment.  And as with any investment, it’s vital you don’t put all your eggs into one basket.

The trick is to identify which series of baskets to put your eggs into so that you can continue to make money not just in the here and now, but for a long time to come.

Be A Mug…And Reap The Benefits!

Back to avoiding those irritating bookie restrictions for as long as possible…

One message that came through from our research is that if you can convince your bookmakers that you are indeed one of the 99% of mug punters, then they will leave you alone.

So how do you come across as being a mug punter?

Well, our article highlighted eight different ways you can make yourself look like you don’t know what you’re doing, whilst at the same time making money.

Here is just a taste of some of the tips that will prolong your bookmaker accounts:

  • First impressions – don’t go wading in immediately with big, shrewd bets.  Start slowly and build. 
  • Play the casino every now and again – don’t spend a lot in there, just pay the odd visit. 
  • Place some ‘mug’ bets – and then lay them off on the Exchanges. 

There are many more hints and tips that your betting will benefit from, including how to harness the latest technology such as Virtual Private Networks to help you stay under the bookie’s radar(there’s actually two full reports into exactly how to do this and which VPN is the best – including an update from September this year).  And by doing these things, believe me, your accounts will stay open and unrestricted for far longer than you might have thought possible…and that means raking in more cash from your betting.

Using VPN'S to Beat the Bookie

ENJOY ALL THE BENEFITS OF AN SBC MEMBERSHIP

By signing up to the Smart Betting Club today you will have immediate access to all of our bookie busting strategies, tipster reviews and analysis, expert guides and more to ensure that you make money from your betting…

  • Full access to all SBC Magazines for the next 12 months;
  • Full access to all SBC Tipster Profit Reports for the next 12 months;
  • Full access to our 9 1/2 year back catalogue of Magazines & Tipster Profit Reports, featuring hundreds of tipsters reviewed and strategies for making money. ALSO including our bookie special guide and VPN articles;
  • Full access to several profitable tipsters via the SBC Forum such as Jason James (+16.83% ROI from 1776 bets);
  • Massive savings on many popular tipsters via the SBC Discount Club;
  • A 30-day money back guarantee if not happy with your membership (Gold & Platinum only);
  • Plus several fantastic bonus systems & guides to help your betting.

What’s more, you’ll be able to make excellent profits from today and continue doing so tomorrow, next week, next month, next year….

Sign up to the SBC now for immediate access

6 Steps To Football Betting Profits

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To help you with your punting this football season, I have put together an easy to follow guide featuring 6 simple steps to achieving BETTER football betting profits.

Each of the 6 steps is based on advice supplied by the football experts interviewed in our recently released ‘Essential Football Betting Compendium‘ – the same experts with proven track records beating the bookies. Suffice to say, they know what they are talking about!

It is by no means a definitive guide (you will need the Compendium for that!) but its full of salient and logical advice that will keep you on the profit straight and narrow this season.

Football Compendium Guide


TIP 1: SET UP YOUR BETTING BANK

“Allow yourself a disciplined betting bank, follow the staking advice, and keep faith through the good and the bad patches” – Phil Brown, Football Bets

It is absolutely vital to always make sure that you have set up a proper, standalone betting bank containing the funds you need for your betting.  Do not mix this with the money you need to pay bills or for day to day living.  The secret to successful betting is discipline, and doing this will set you on the right path from the moment you place your very first bet of the new season.

Not only that, but there will be periods of the season when you’ll hit a few losers. Perhaps more than a few at times. It’s vital you see those bad streaks out, so make sure you sort out that betting bank, and keep the faith in those you’ve chosen to follow.  Remember, all our recommended tipsters have proven themselves over the long term and come with betting bank suggestions to help you absorb the bad runs when they come (and not go overboard during the good runs!)

TIP 2: VALUE, VALUE, VALUE

“There are always going to be certain types of teams in certain types of situations that are almost always going to be underbet by the masses and hence a value price. That is my general philosophy to betting in these leagues – I am the proverbial “suncream in winter” buyer!” – Matt Love, Football Elite

Winning bettors don’t look for winners.  They look for value.  It is value that provides your profit.  Sure, backing Man United at home against the bottom team will give you a winner more likely than not, but do this every week at the wrong prices, and you’ll lose money.

This might mean you have to go against the crowd and place a bet no-one else seems to be – yet often that might just be what makes you successful.

TIP 3: STICK WITH THE PROVEN WINNERS

“If you’re following a tipster, stick with it for the full season. Trying to switch it all around due to temporary losing streaks won’t lead to better results.” – Mike, Football Value

There is such a temptation to ditch a tipster when they go through a losing streak.  Don’t.  Form is temporary and class permanent.  And you need to remember this and not fall into this very common trap.

This is why the tipsters we recommend are proven, long-term winners and we don’t react to shorter periods of bad form.  When a losing run hits, you will be comforted by the fact you can look at the service’s excellent results over many years betting.  You will see they have experienced and worked their way through similar bad patches in the past and that they know what they are doing.

So when you’ve settled on a tipster, make sure you give him the time to make you money.  Stick with him, and reap the rewards.

Fink Tank Service

 

TIP 4: SPREAD THE RISK

“…diversification is key and will always remain key if trying to make a profit long-term at this game… Spread the risk across different leagues and different systems/tipsters” –Graeme Dand, The Football Analyst

A golden rule of betting is to never put all of your precious eggs into just the one basket.  Put yourself into a situation where if a tipster specialising in one field is struggling, then a tipster specialising in another can balance things out.

Of course that is all very well, but surely finding one great tipster is difficult enough, never mind identifying a number of them!?!

Well, it’s not difficult if you know where to look.  We currently have 15 football tipsters that we have proofed, analysed, reviewed and monitored.  These include ratings-based tipsters, and tipsters who specialise in one of Italian, Spanish, South American, Scottish, and UK Non-League football, amongst others.  So spread the risk and boost your profits.

TIP 5: ALWAYS GET THE BEST ODDS ON YOUR BETS

“..get the best possible price for your wager using [an] odds comparison service…” – Ross Casey, Easyodds

Don’t take odds of 11/10 against your fancy when you can get 5/4.  It may be small margins, but over a season, these differences will add up and make a big difference to your bottom line.

There are many odds comparison sites out there, and it is a simple task to open accounts with different bookmakers and betting exchanges.  Don’t be loyal to a bookie just because its easy – it might cost you! Shop around and play the market for the best odds.

Plus, as an SBC member, we have special offers with the likes of Smarkets (unique low 1% commission deal) and several reviews of various Bet Brokers who can help you get better odds. Every little helps…

AND FINALLY, TIP 6: JOIN US HERE AT SBC!

Best of all, for genuine advice and expertise, make sure you sign-up for a Smart Betting Club membership as we firmly believe we can help you make your betting a success.

Whether you are a relative newcomer or time-served gambler, we have something to suit you – tipsters, systems, strategies, expert interviews…you name it – we feature it!

And if you liked the steps above, you can find a lot more to help your football punting with our 6 part new season betting compendium – available to access and download the instant you join us.

So why not try us out today risk free with our 100% money back guarantee and see how we can help you.

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4 Tips To Win The ‘Britain At The Bookies’ Battle

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4 Tips To Win The ‘Britain At The Bookies’ Battle

On Monday, the BBC screened the first episode of their new ‘Britain At The Bookies‘ series – designed to explore the winners and losers of the UK betting industry.
As part of the series, bookmakers Coral invited the BBC cameras into one of their best performing stores in Huddersfield as well as the Coral head office, no doubt keen to showcase the more ‘human’ side of their operation.

It’s a reasonable enough 60 minutes watch, even if just to witness how different punters suffer at the bookies hands – from the poor guy spending all his benefit money on FOBT machines, though to the educated punter struggling to get his bet matched as he is a serial winner.

And if you too are a successful punter (or have aspirations to be one) then this show is a good reminder of the fact betting is a winner-takes-all battle between punter and bookmaker.

One wins, one loses and there is very little in-between – despite the bookies ‘chummy’ attempts to woo us with free bets and cups of tea or the facade that bookie shops are ‘part of the community’. Shops exist these days primarily as they can hold 4 FOBT machines in each one.

And in today’s unfair betting climate, to be a continuous winner over the bookies you have to be shrewd, adopt the right tactics and bet on the right sports in the right way.

So to help with that, I thought it wise to remind you of a few simple tips that can help you to win the punters v bookies war…

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1. Cover Your ‘Betting Tracks’ With A VPN

In Episode 1, a trader from Coral openly admits that they they track IP addresses when it comes to identifying winning gamblers – so covering these tracks is a must first off.

The solution therefore is to use one of the many VPN (Virtual Private Network) solutions available which help mask your IP address location.

One very easy to use VPN is  Zenmate – A free add on to your internet browser, which you can turn on and off in an instant.

When switched on, it fools the bookmaker as to your location and IP address, so they can’t easily link you to past successful bets or accounts you may have held with them.

It’s ideal for those of you who find yourself unfairly restricted or closed down for winning money in one account and are keen to open up a second.
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2. Behave Like A ‘Mug Punter’

Prevention is always better than cure and often the best way to avoid restrictions is to pretend to be a mug punter in the first place.

Bookmakers like Coral really only want mug losing punters and anything you can do to convince them you fall into that category is a must.

For example, I understand that Bet Victor like to see their customers play in the online casino for the simple reason that the vast, vast majority of people who do, lose money and help swell their shareholders coffers.

Therefore the simple act of spinning £10 or £20 on the roulette or blackjack table every couple of weeks can help keep up the charade that you might not actually know what you are doing.

Even if you actually do.

3. Increase Your Betting on Football

Most of the difficulties punters face getting on these days revolves around horse racing, where bookies are very wary of taking bets on the sport.

This has also lead to many punters frustrated by horse racing to turn to football, where it is a heck of lot easier to get on and make money betting.

In fact, football is awash with bookies and exchanges willing to take your bets on the sport (such as Matchbook & Smarkets) with many of them offering competitive odds, high stakes and who actively welcome winners.

It is one reason why many SBC members after maximising all they can via horse racing, look to football to expand their profits.

At the very least, it is wise to mix up your betting beyond just horse racing for this reason. Adding in as much football betting as possible can often help extend the lifespan of many a betting account.

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4. Look To The States

It’s not just football capturing punters imagination these days but US Sports such as NBA, NFL & NHL which offer some fantastic opportunities for shrewd punters to win money without restriction.

If you have never bet on some of these sports or have no idea how they work, then rest assured they are actually very easy to follow indeed.

The markets again offer great liquidity, competitive odds and make the horse racing betting market look prehistoric.

You are also not limited to the usual bookmaker suspects with exchanges like the aforementioned Matchbook & Smarkets alongside others such as 5 Dimes and Pinnacle Sports offering huge margins and welcoming winners.

Further Help Is At Hand

The 4 bits of advice above are just the tip of the iceberg for what you need to know as a serious punter and if you are keen to find out more about beating the bookmaker then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

As well as regular reviews on all of the best UK and USA sport tipsters, we also regularly publish expert reports such as our VPN Special & Bookmaker Special guides from 2014.

The information found in both of these reports is very much still relevant and can help you keep one step ahead of the bookmaker.

All of which is instantly accessible with a Smart Betting Club subscription – available now with a full money back guarantee if in anyway not satisfied by our service.

Sign-up For Your Instant SBC Membership

Can you transform your betting with in-running lays?

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We all know that betting on horses can bring rich rewards.  The best tipsters, and we review and monitor most of them, can give your betting a massive boost providing ROI levels of 15-20%+. 

But even the best tipsters have spells when they find the going tough.  Wouldn’t it be nice if we could find a way in which we could soften the blow of the losing runs when they come along?   And what if we could discover a method or strategy that allows us to set smaller bank sizes for the services we follow but not increase our exposure to risk by doing so?

We set our expert SBC analysts the task of achieving these aims, and after extensive research and data analysis, they have come back with a simple but powerfully effective tool to add to the bettor’s armoury.

Allow me to introduce to you, the power of…the in-running lay.

How the in-running lay can transform your betting.

Take a look at the following table taken from our latest betting magazine SBC93, released this week:

performance_summary_Winbetsvsinrunninglay

These figures relate to a highly promising horse racing service that we put through the paces whilst compiling our in-depth review.

We used a bank of 200 points for the purpose of simply backing each bet win only and allowing it to run without further intervention.

We used a 100 point bank to see what would have happened had we placed a lay at Betfair odds of 2.5 in-running on each of the 929 selections, the lay being for half of the potential profit should the horse win it’s race.

Immediately we can see a much improved strike rate of 30.8% when using in-running lays, compared to just 13.7% without.

 

That is a massive difference when it comes to subscriber experience.  A 30.8% strike rate means much shorter losing runs than those you’d experience with a strike rate of 13.7%.

Perhaps the most interesting fact however, is that the ROC is only slightly lower at 69.9%, and that’s if only utilising our fairly crude banks of 100 and 200 points.  The in-running lays have lost us a little bit of our Return On Capital, but they have provided us with a much smoother ride to profit.

SBC 93 Magazine

Alternative methods for using in-running lays

We kept this initial study deliberately simple. Over the summer, we will be analysing the data to work out exactly where the optimum price is for setting the in-running lay, and the optimum strategy.

When our studies are complete, we will be in a position to answer the following essential questions that any serious bettor should be asking:

  • What are the optimum prices to set our in-running lays at?
  • How can we maximise our betting banks?
  • What is the optimum amount to win back with our lays?

The usefulness of these findings is not limited only to the service we have reviewed in SBC93.  The same principles can be applied to any of the top horse racing tipsters with services performing consistently at the very top of our performance league tables.

I can tell you from personal experience too, that there is more than one way to skin the in-running cat.  I have previously adopted a strategy with a top performing National Hunt racing expert that involved placing an in-running lay at 1.5 to ensure I made a portion of profit, even if the horse went on to lose.  And believe me when I say that it is not at all unusual for a horse to reach that price and still not win it’s race!

That’s the beauty of using in-running lays – you can make them do almost anything you want them to.  Return your stake, ensure a profit no matter what once matched, use different pricing levels, etc., etc.

Where they can be extremely useful is for those who are restricted to using Betfair for their racing action as a consequence of the high street bookies having closed all accounts.  It is well known that the Each Way and Place markets on Betfair frequently lack liquidity, and as a result the prices often represent poor value.  Well, it’s perfectly viable to use a lay to return an amount equivalent to that you would receive from the place part of an each way bet, and will do so simply if the horse looks like it might win.

So, it could well be that if you’re not using in-running lays when backing horses on Betfair, you’re missing out.  Certainly we at the SBC will be exploring this valuable angle further and feeding back all findings to our members in the very near future.

And that is what the SBC is all about…finding angles, services, and strategies that lead to big profits for our members.  We see ourselves at war with the bookies, and it’s vital we stay one step ahead of the old enemy.

To see what we’re talking about, why not subscribe now and download the latest betting magazine containing reviews of two highly successful racing services (one of which has demonstrated 484% bank growth in just 15 months!) and an interview with one of our leading racing tipsters who explains how he makes money betting?

This is the bookmaker apocalypse!  Be a part of it and subscribe today!

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The Secret Diary of a Professional Gambler

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Professional Punter Insights

Those readers of a certain age (in the UK) will remember the wonderful book by Sue Townsend –The Secret Diary of Adrian Mole, Aged 13 ¾ . The book follows the travails of teenager Adrian as he navigates typical problems such as acne, girls and his neighbour seducing his mother.

Here at the Smart Betting Club we have our very secret diary, but in this case focusing on the ups and downs of professional gambling. Our Mole in this case is Rowan Day, a pro punter who is well past his teenage years, but still has to contend with issues such as cricket matches interfering with bet placement.

Rowan writes his column exclusively for Smart Betting Club members and not only is it a good read, it also provides a useful insight into the life of a pro punter (and SBC member). With April now behind us, here are some excerpts from Rowan’s latest missive…

The names of tipsters that Rowan uses have been removed for the benefit of paying Smart Betting Club members. To find out more about an SBC membership click here.

April Update: I Loved That Hamster…

Nine winners from nine on Saturday, and Justin Rose winning on the PGA Tour yesterday meant that for a second weekend in the month, [TipsterH] had a stormer.  Shame I missed out on the first weekend, eh?

This will have been a bumper month for [TipsterH] followers.  That it is not as big a month for me as it will have been for others is, as you can tell, really winding me up.  I need to let it go and move on.  Honestly, I’ve not grieved so much since family pet ‘Hammy’ the hamster died back in ’79.

I loved that hamster.

*cough*

Still a good month…

Still, even without this boost [TipsterH] has had a month to savour and was by far my best performing service for April.  Although the figures don’t go into last month’s totals, it was great to see a long term bet on Brentford landed on Saturday, one of the few antepost bets I was able to place at fairly decent odds at the beginning of the footie season.  I’ve had a couple of antepost losers too, but I’ve been fortunate in that the long term bets I have been able to place have come in, and some of those I wasn’t able to have gone on to be losers.  Swings and roundabouts I guess; the betting equivalent to that well worn football mantra of luck evening itself out over the course of a season.

[TipsterH] April: Staked 102.5pts, +24.172pts

A Gut Feeling on [TipsterJ]

At the risk of tempting fate, and touching wood whilst offering a silent prayer, it is to be noted that there have been one or two signs of life for [TipsterJ], a service that has lain dormant for some time.  I’ve made a lot of money from this service in the past, and although my faith hadn’t completely dwindled, I couldn’t help but wonder if perhaps it had seen it’s best days.  Although not a huge profit in the month gone, I did get the feeling that there was more consistency in their approach and it “felt” more like the service of old.

[TipsterJ] April: Staked 27pts, +2.816pts

Mr Consistent: [TipsterT]

My most consistent service by far is [TipsterT], and April was another solid month for the South American expert.  It’s not the simplest service to follow – far from it in fact, with odds crashing fast – but happily for 80% of the bets that come through, I tend to be at the laptop at the time of release and so generally speaking, I’m ok.

[TipsterT] April: Staked 169pts, +11.536pts.

Dodging Bullets

One of the more inspired decisions I’ve made about my betting recently was to drop the football Combo bets this month.  I made this decision not because I felt the system has no merit (indeed, on the contrary), but because I hadn’t fully settled on my own Combo strategy.  Experience has taught me that if there is any lack of certainty in my method of following a service or tipster, or in this case a combination of tipsters, then it is better to stop putting the money down and wait until there is 100% clarity in terms of the way forward.

What I can’t claim is some great foresight that told me that [Tipsters X & Y], two huge contributors to the Combo method, would each suffer a torrid April. I can’t imagine they would be great results and I feel I’ve dodged a bullet here.

Feeding the Fink Tank

Rounding up the summary of football services, and we come to the seemingly ever-reliable The Fink Tank.  I know that, like any service/system, it has bad spells (seemingly the 2013/14 season was one of them), but this season it has been great.

[Fink Tank] April: Staked 59pts, +3.945pts

Find out more about Fink Tank here

Smarkets Betting Exchange

Basketball Foul Times

It hasn’t been such a happy time for [Tipster B], but previous heroics prevent there being too many feelings of reproach for the NBA specialist.  There’s not too much to say, other than it would be nice for what has overall been a highly successful season if it were to finish strongly through May.  Here’s hoping. (Staked 148pts, -17.242pts).

[Tipster B] April: Staked 148pts, -17.242pts

Big Ups & Downs With This Tipster:

There’s no escaping the fact that [TipsterTT] had a shocker of an April.  Looking at previous months’ results, it was due one, and something I have learnt already from following this service is that losses can, and have been previously, recouped at a rate of knots.  In simple, black and white terms, this service has dragged my overall monthly profit right down, but therein lies the problem of splitting overall performance into monthly chunks.  30-31 days really is no sort of time period to evaluate performance.

[TipsterTT] April: 301.8pts, -92.916pts

Horse Racing Profits:

It was good to see [Tipster O] embark successfully upon the beginnings of a recovery mission to regain points lost through the early part of the year.

[Tipster O]: Staked 40.15pts, +9.199pts

Staking Management & Much More

As a Smart Betting Club member Rowan has benefited not only from our in-depth reviews of profitable tipster, we also supply dozens of articles on professional betting topics such as bankroll management and betting psychology.This means that Rowan is able to manage his portfolio of tipsters effectively so that no tipster dominates his profit and loss. His final tally for April shows an ROI of 1.34% and a Return On Capital of 1.13%. As Rowan says – Not the best month in the world, but not the worst either.Some tipsters stake more than others and some may take on higher odds selections which means if you had £1,000 invested with each tipster you would stake dramatically different amounts per bet / per point.

If you want to find out more about professional punting and the tipsters that really make money then take up a Smart Betting Club subscription today.

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The Complete Guide To General Election Betting

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How To Bet On The General Election 2015

As we reach the 1st of May, the Premier League title is firmly in the hands of Chelsea. However, there is another betting market hotting up right now with all still to play for – The UK General election.

2015 is likely to be one of the tightest elections in living memory, so if you fancy a flutter you’ll need to be on your toes. This complete guide to betting on the general election 2015 breaks down the key markets, the latest odds and any value bets.

First let’s start with a look at the big picture.

1)  Horse Trading and Dodgy Deals

To understand the election – let’s break things down into key numbers:

• Seats required to form a majority government (no coalition): 326
• Bare minimum seats to form a government of any sort: 323
• Probability that there will be no majority government: 90%+!

In 2010, the Tories got over the 326 seat threshold (more than half the house) with the help of the Lib-Dems in a coalition. This time around however, not only are the Tories expected to fall short again, the Lib Dems are unlikely to gain enough seats to help them out. So – no overall majority.

2015 Election - Overall Majority ChartNo Overall Majority Implied Probability (Betfair Exchange Odds)

 

So what’s likely to happen?

Everything is still to play for, but the most likely outcome is for there to be a minority government. The government won’t have half the seats, but will get by with informal agreements with various parties for support on individual issues. The key will be to get enough support to pass a vote of no confidence.

As you can imagine, there will be lots of promises, deals and general shenanigans as parties jostle for power and influence.

How to double your money in 12 months
So how have we come to this?

There are three big reasons for the potential spaghetti cluster fudge that UK politics are about to enter, all neatly summarised by this neat little chart from FiveThirtyEight.com.

How UK Parties are Polling ChartUK Polls Over Time (via FiveThirtyEight.com)

Three key factors:

1. The Lib Dems Broke Promises – Well in the eyes of key voters, especially students, this is what happened. Either way, the number of Lib Dem seats is expected to plunge.

2. The rise of UKIP – In the last few years, UKIP have risen to take an increasing share of the vote initially from Tories, but also from Labour more recently. This share isn’t enough to see them win many seats (just two at recent estimates), but it is enough to nick votes from the Tories primarily.

3. Scottish Power! – Following the independence vote, the Scottish National Party are riding a wave of goodwill and are expected to secure 52/59 seats North of the Border. Many of the seats were former Labour Strongholds.

The SNP will be the third largest party in Parliament, but their role is likely to be complicated. They won’t form a coalition with the Tories and Labour have ruled out a coalition too due to negative feeling this creates in English voters.

So where do we find our value bets then?

2)  What Do the Betting Markets Say?

First let’s take a look at the key betting markets and the current favourite.

  • Overall Majority: ‘No’ @ 1.13
  • Most Seats: Conservatives @  1.32
  • Next Prime Minister: Ed Miliband @ 1.62
  • Next Government: Labour minority @ 2.78

Betfair Chart - Next Government Odds

 

There are many weird and wonderful markets that you can bet on, right down to betting on your individual constituency. Here’s the best place to find odds for the election 2015:

 

Smarkets Betting Exchange

 What do the polls say?

One way to find value bets is to compare the latest betting odds to the national polls…However this doesn’t even come close to telling you half the story!

If the polls directly translated into seats, then UKIP would be a power broker in parliament. The fact is that UK elections come down to a small number of constituencies. Vast swathes of the country will always be Labour and vast swathes will always be Tory. The key is what is likely to happen in the key undecided or ‘marginal’ seats.

Political polling is a highly sophisticated affair nowadays, but one person to listen to is Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com who gained a huge following after correctly calling the last two US elections. This stats genius has partnered with a number of UK academics to produce what is likely to be the most accurate prediction of the general election.

FiveThirtyEights Election Prediction TableFiveThirtyEight’s Election Prediction

 

This model takes into account everything from marginal polling from the Likes of Lord Ashcroft to historical voting patterns. In one graph you have what is likely to be a highly accurate prediction of the 2015 election.

So…

3)  What Are The Value Bets?

The key to political betting is to vote with your head not your heart. You may or may not like the idea of Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister, but it’s what the betting markets are currently saying is the most likely outcome.

Taking into account FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, electionforecast.co.uk
and lordashcroftpolls.com we’ve arrived at what could well be value bets in this election.

  • Overall Majority: ‘No’ @ 1.13

Verdict: Value Bet – The prediction models are saying there’s 98% chance of a hung parliament with 90% accuracy, so the odds should be 1.02 not 1.13.

  • Most Seats: Conservatives @ 1.32
  • Next Prime Minister: Ed Miliband @ 1.62
  • Next Government: Labour minority @ 2.78

Verdicts: No Value – The 90% confidence range for outcomes in these markets are just too wide to be taking odds like 1.32. The Maths stack up for the Labour Minority government odds, but we’d prefer not to bet on something that depends on political horse trading!

There is one market well worth a look at though, based on the chance of ‘Shy Tories’ coming out and changing the vote. Back in 1992 polling was neck and neck between Labour and the Conservatives, but the Tories won easily in the end. It turned out that everyone saying “don’t know” in the polls was either not willing to admit to voting Tory or just ended up voting for who they voted for last time (Tory). Opinion polls have been adjusted to account for this, but there’s no way of knowing how accurate these adjustments will be in another tight race.

With the Tories expected to win 279 seats, there could be some hidden upside in betting on them to win between 276 and 300 seats at 1.98 with Betfair.

Conservative Seats Total: 276-300 seats @ 1.98

4)  Wrap Up

We hope you’ve enjoyed this summary of the General election 2015 betting options. We’re officially politically neutral in this and have tried to stick to what the markets and expert statisticians are saying in this analysis. The internet and political arguments are messy bedfellows so we have purposely tried to avoid any comment!

If you liked this article then check out what else the Smart Betting Club has to offer for punters looking for an edge. From beginners guides to tipster reviews, a Smart Betting Club membership is your ticket to better betting.

Make Money Betting - Join the Smart Betting Club today

How This Danish Football Team Can Increase Your Betting Profits

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There were howls of derision when Brentford Chairman Matthew Benham introduced a new ‘continental’ structure with a head coach, director of football and reliance on performance statistics such as ‘shots in the danger zone’. 

But football luddites should take note – Benham is not someone to bet against.

Firstly, there is the fact that he has already applied this structure at his Danish club FC Midtjylland, who are leading the Danish Superliga and on course for the first title in their history.

Also, Matthew Benham isn’t your average football chairman. He’s also a professional gambler and founder of the highly successful SmartOdds betting syndicate.

When asked by Midtjylland manager Rasmus Ankersen whether Brentford would get promoted from League One, his reply was typically devoid of emotion: “There is a 42.3% chance that we will go up”.

Imagine Harry Redknapp saying that with a straight face!

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Four Ways Matthew Benham Can Improve Your Betting Profits

Thinking in terms of probabilities has been one of the key factors behind Benham’s successful betting career that has seen him earning millions in betting profits.

Whether you are applying your own mathematical models like Benham or following a professional sports betting tipster, it’s the ability to control your emotions and focus on the probabilities that is key to success.

The great news is that you can think like this too, as we detail in our Betting X Factor Special. Here’s an extract from this special edition, detailing four ways that thinking in probabilities like Matthew Benham can increase your profits:

1. Detachment From Results

The probabilities bettor understands he is neither right nor wrong on any one bet. His vision is long-term, any individual bet is irrelevant in the macro world in which he operates.

Thus even if we have a belief system that says being “wrong” is bad and that we must be “right” all the time. That belief will not play out if one of our bets loses because we weren’t wrong to make the selection – it was consistent with our betting strategy, our money management rules were adhered to, we accept losses as a necessary function of winning, we have the long-term in mind and our edge is assured.

Ruth Barros Roosevelt wrote in her book Habitudes of Highly Successful Traders:

“Detachment from trading results is a subtle emotion. The attitude of a successful trader is not indifference, nor is it intense concern. The attitude of detachment is something like alert and interested unconcern”

We will still naturally be interested in our overall performance over time. We need to take an active interest in the feedback our results give us in the long-term. We need to be flexible to change approach if long-term results (i.e. the probabilities) dictate that it is necessary. These approaches are not at all inconsistent with being detached from day-to-day results.

2.  Neutral Expectations

The probabilities bettor will have no expectation about a particular result.

Having unrealistic expectations, or having realistic long-term expectations but expecting them to play out in the short-term, is certain to bring disappointment and pain.
The unrealistic expectation creates a vision in our mind of what the future will hold. We feel sure it will happen, we’ve imagined the feeling of joy we will experience when it does happen, and we’ve already tasted it in our mind.
We are expecting the winner of the 2:30 at Ascot to be Shergar ridden by Lord Lucan. When it doesn’t materialise the way we envisaged it in our minds we have an unfulfilled expectation. The degree to which we expected it, the joy we anticipated, will be the degree to which we feel the pain when it doesn’t materialise.
In short, the mind screams like a banshee about how wronged it was!

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3. Seeing Drawdowns As Temporary

With the confidence of knowing we have a genuine edge and keeping the long-term in mind, a drawdown does not have a negative influence upon us. We have not defined ourselves or our success by one bet or even one day’s betting results. We and our betting results are part of a much bigger picture.

Thus a drawdown loses its influence to overly concern us. We do not become discouraged. We remain optimistic because we know that as sure as night follows day, so does an upturn follow a drawdown.

4. Discipline

Thinking in probabilities allows us to have the mental discipline to follow our betting system and money management principles. The consistency we have in our mind is the rudder that keeps our betting ship on course, while the randomness of the betting markets might otherwise throw a lesser vessel off course.

How To Think Like A Pro

So these are four very real advantages to thinking like a pro, but how can you adapt your mindset?

Author Mark Douglas suggests that we adopt the following five constructs to improve our betting mind:

1. Always believe that anything can happen: Never bet your house on something because you believe something is guaranteed – Who would have thought that Bradford would beat Chelsea!

2. Understand that you don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money: You take a position on something uncertain like the result of football match, but you can’t control the outcome.

3. Keep in mind that there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. Even a coin flipped 10 times could come up heads every time!

4. Remember an edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing over another. Just because you backed a horse at 6/1 when it should be 4/1 doesn’t mean it will win! It’s still a 4/1 shot!

5. Finally, accept that every moment in betting is unique. You’re never ‘due a winner’ and just because you nailed your football bets last weekend doesn’t mean you do it again this weekend.

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These five mental tips are just a sample of the many ways our Betting X Factor special edition can help improve your betting. If you want to learn more, sign up today to gain access instantly!

We can’t promise you’ll become a successful football club chairman, but it will help you win the battle of the betting mind.

Sign-up for a Smart Betting Club membership today.

Win The Battle Of The Betting Mind

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Find Out How You Can Master Betting Psychology To Build Long Term Punting Success

Today sees the launch of an extra-special edition of Smart Betting Club – How To Get The Betting X Factor

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  • Have you ever wondered how the professional punters do it?
  • Or what makes them good enough to earn a part or full time income from betting?
  • Or maybe how the top 2% of punters keep going through tough periods?

If you’ve ever struggled with these questions or issues like them, then our Betting X Factor report is a must read for you.

In this special report written with betting expert and author, Jeff Smith, you’ll learn exactly what it takes for you to become a betting success. It’s available immediately for download for anyone joining the Smart Betting Club.

Why You Are The Key To Success

There are four factors that go into betting success:

Strategy

A Smart Betting Club membership can help you with each of these areas:

  1. Strategy: We track dozens of tipsters and systems with regular results updates so you can sort the wheat from the chaff.
  2. Money Management: Not only do we reveal the best tipsters, we also show you how to follow them. We show you how much you can safely stake on each tipster to maximise profits and minimise risk.
  3. Capital: We all have different betting budgets, but a Smart Betting Club membership can help you define realistic targets, whether this is to make an extra side income or serious investment returns.
  4. You: The final ingredient is how you pull it all together and take your betting to the next level. For this you need the Betting X Factor

Even the best punter in the world won’t win with a poor strategy or tipster – BUT give 25 people the same winning system and you’ll get 25 different sets of results!

Why? Because it takes more than a good strategy to make betting profits. It takes the ability to handle losing runs, to keep perspective after a big win and to maintain focus year in year out.

This is where our special Betting X Factor publication will help.

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How One Member Got the Betting X Factor

Over the years, we’ve helped hundreds of our members obtain long term betting profits. Here’s what one member had to say:

“I had often heard of SBC but after my experience with tipsters I was very sceptical. Eventually after mulling over it for a few months I decided to subscribe. Now some months later I have to admit it has been the best decision I have ever made from a punting point of view.

First of all you get an insight into how pro gamblers work and more importantly how you should not punt. SBC offer an excellent tipster league table of the top tipsters around and they constantly scrutinise these tipsters as well as always looking out for existing tipsters who are providing an honest service. You are taught how to manage your betting bank and from my experience these tipsters offer excellent services and customer service. I started by joining one recommended service and have gradually built up a small portfolio of tipsters. I am now achieving profits that are very pleasing, I realise that there are bad days which I have had but in the long term their selective approach is definitely worth following. I now only bet what I am told to and thanks to the SBC I feel I am a much better punter.”

L.P. SBC Member


What You’ll Learn In The Betting X Factor

In this special edition, you’ll learn how to win the battle of the betting mind with insights in the following areas:

  • The Success Formula.
  • Continuous marginal gains in sports betting.
  • Key questions to ask yourself.
  • How to build your betting investment plan.
  • Money management – stake size and psychology.
  • The power of beliefs.
  • How to remove limiting beliefs.
  • How to think in terms of probability.
  • How to develop yourself for betting success.


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Join Today & Grab Your Copy Instantly!

Access to this Betting X Factor Magazine is only available with an exclusive Smart Betting Club membership. The instant you join as either a Silver, Gold or Platinum subscriber, you can gain immediate access and download your copy!

So don’t delay, sign-up today and get started on the path to better betting profits!

join-now

P.S….Free Profitable Football System Tips

As a Smart Betting Club subscriber you can also access in full our profitable football system – the ‘Fink Tank’.

You can either read our updated 2014/15 season guide on how it works or simply pick up all qualifying system tips every week via the SBC Forum.
With 4 profitable sub-systems to choose from (Asian Handicaps or straight 1X2 bets) its so easy to follow even Robbie Savage could figure it out!
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When You Shouldn’t Bet And Why!

Posted on by Peter Ling

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It seems these days as if the whole world is imploring us to have a bet with more and more bookmaker adverts bombarding us everywhere we turn.

Whether it’s being told to ‘Have a bang on that’ or to ‘Stick one on it”- everything is geared towards having as many bets as possible…Yet I want to turn that on its head today and discuss when you shouldn’t place a bet.

Any gambler worth their salt will tell you that knowing when not to bet is often just as important as knowing when to bet. Anything that can save you from backing losers or as today’s article discusses – avoiding placing bets at bad value prices should always be worth your time.

With this in mind, today I want to share with you an excerpt from our most recent Practical Punter Report, written by semi-pro gambler Rowan Day, which we publish every month for SBC members to read. His reports discuss the real-life experiences of actually following tipsters to make money betting and form part of the Practical Betting assistance we provide at SBC.

So without further ado, let me hand over to Rowan…

“Nowadays people know the prices of everything and the value of nothing”

Who’d have thought that Oscar Wilde was into sports betting?

Despite the fact that deep down I knew that placing a bet at 1.7 that had been advised at 2.0 was a fool’s game, I couldn’t bear to face the prospect of letting a potential winner go unbacked.  So in I’d wade, regardless of the price, sticking down my cash with no proper thought.  It really did take me longer than it should have done to realise that my approach was all wrong, and that I needed to pay more heed to obtaining value in my bets.

It wasn’t until I started to read and hear things from people who were obviously more experienced and successful at betting than I was, that I accepted that securing value really is the be all and end all.  I finally came to realise (and it really was a case of being better late than never!) that without this skill, the long term outcome for my betting was not so rosy, no matter how skilled the tipsters within it were at finding winners.

Of course what is an almost impossible task, at least if not using a statistical/mathematical modelling approach to betting, is identifying just how much value exists, if any, in a particular pick.  You need to remember this as you read on.

It’s impossible for any tipster to say there is X amount of value in one of his picks.  He can make a very good judgement as to whether a bet has value or not, and indeed go further and use his skill to identify when a bet has more value than another (which is reflected in his weight of staking), but whether a pick is at odds 5% better than they should be, or 10% or 20%, how precise can you be?  A skilled estimate is the best any tipster can do.

So what we must assume therefore, is that our tipster has identified a solid level of value in each and every selection they advise, and that after the point of bet release, it is down to ourselves to secure as big a chunk of that value as possible.

The Hardest Thing To Do Is Sometimes The Most Simple.

The best piece of betting advice I’ve ever been given is that you don’t ever have to bet.  No-one forces us to strike any bet, although I do understand that we can feel compelled to do so.

I would imagine that the following scenario is familiar to most, if not all of you…

You’re in the midst of a losing spell.  Last minute goals are turning winning bets into losing ones, your horses are always a nose behind in the photo finishes.  You’re feeling more and more frustrated and it’s getting harder to take as you see the balances in your bookmaker accounts falling lower and lower.

It is in this context that you get your email from your tipster who is obviously very confident about a selection, but due to circumstances you’re not able to get the bet on as soon as it was released.  Indeed, by the time you get to your laptop or PC, the price on the selection has crashed from 1.9 to 1.72..

Now, deep down, you know the value must have gone from that bet, right?  But reading the email again, the guy is so confident. It carries a bigger stake than most of his picks.  It must win.  And suddenly you’re telling yourself that amongst all these losers, you just need a win.  Something to plug the leak, stop the rot.  Does it really matter that the price is only 80% of the price the tipster thought represented value?  After all, a winner is a winner.  And how are you going to feel if after backing all these losers, you walk away from a winning bet?

Been there?  I know I have.  Many times.  And it was only relatively recently that I grew the cojones to do the simplest thing in the world…walk away and not bet.  If the price has gone too low, then as the yoof of today say, leave it, yeah?

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Determining An Acceptable Price

OK, so we’re determined to be disciplined enough to walk away from placing bets that we know no longer hold any value.  But where do we draw the line between what is an acceptable price to take on a pick, and what is not?

This is a very inexact science and I’m sure there will be statisticians and experts on probabilities that disagree with what I’m about to say.  What I would say to them is that successful betting involves not just playing the numbers correctly, but includes successfully managing the psychological impact of what we’re doing.

It is just as important to get the non-mathematical aspect of running a betting portfolio correct if we are to be successful long term.  If we keep passing over bets because we’re not getting what we deem to be a value price, then it won’t be long before we become disillusioned.  For the sake of our own sanity, we do need to ensure that we are placing the majority of the bets that come through from our tipsters.  We mustn’t be too pernickety, and deny ourselves the opportunities to make some money!

It is on this basis that we have to make some assumptions, the biggest of which is that the tipster has identified a significant amount of value in each of his picks.  So as a general rule, I am looking to take no less than 90% of the officially advised odds on any of my sports bets.  That’s my cut off point, my bare minimum, although I do still want my average odds taken to be much higher, more like 97/98% of the advised odds, and in fact I actually change my acceptable minimum price depending on the nature of the individual bet.

So 90% is my minimum cut-off point for any bet that has moved odds…what do you think yours might be?

You Must Learn To Deal With The Psychology.

If you decide that you are going to implement similar strategies to those I’ve talked about here, then please do ready yourself mentally.  There WILL be times when you miss out on backing winning bets, but remember, there will also be times you don’t place a bet that turns out to be a loser.  It’s a certainty though that your mental aptitude will be tested at some point, and there will be times when you’re left shaking your head and tearing your hair out (at the same time, if your hand/eye co-ordination is good enough!).

Yet whatever you do – remember, you don’t have to bet every time – regardless of what Ray Winstone or Robbie Savage tell you!

More Real-Life Help On Actually Making Tipsters Pay…

This excerpt is taken from Rowans most recent Practical Punter Report, with the full article going on to reveal more on his own scientific approach as to how he decides to take a bet or not.

Alongside this you can also read details on the tipsters that Rowan follows, his ongoing performance and exactly how he makes following tipsters pay for him. Providing inspiration for those of you looking to do the same!

All Practical Punter Reports, including the full back catalogue are available to all Gold SBC members the instant you join our service. They have proven to be very popular amongst our members so why not sign-up now and take advantage of our risk-free money back guarantee.

Sign-up For Instant Smart Betting Club Membership Right Now!

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The Top 9 Betting Articles From The Past 12 Months

Posted on by Mike

Today for a bit of a walk down memory lane, I have rounded up our 9 most popular blog articles and emails from the last 12 months.

Whether its advice on betting win only or each way, our interview with a bookie insider or how to squeeze better value out of your football bets, there should be something for you. So without further ado, here is the top 9…

1. Why The Bookie Is Not Your Friend!
Bookmakers love to pretend to be on your side, although the reality is often quite different…Here is why plus how Ray Winstone’s Bet365 tips bagged just 1 win in 25!

2. Infiltrating The Bookies With Our ‘Insider Mole’
Read some exclusive excerpts from our interview with a bookmaker insider who spills the beans on how we can beat the ‘enemy’.

3. Eight Expert Football Betting Tips
8 essential tips on how to make a profit football betting from some of the top tipping experts out there.

4. Each-Way Or Win Only… Whats The Best Way To Bet?
Help solving the eternal problem of whether its better to place your bets win only or each way. Includes one example tipster who improved their profits by 72% after choosing the right method.

5. Two Very Different Ways To Make Your Betting Pay
How to compare tipsters the easy way, even if they tip bets at completely different odds, strike-rate or quantity.

6. Your 5-Step Betting Profits ‘Personal Trainer’ Plan for 2014
Our get ‘betting-fit’ guide for the start of the New Year and 5 top tips on how to topple the bookmaker in 2014.

7. Football Betting Stats: Why This Season Has Been So Strange
Exactly why were the first few months of the 2013/14 season so out of sync? Plus possibly the worlds worst system revealed!

8. Why This Free Tipster Demands Your Attention!
It’s a myth that when it comes to finding winning betting tips you need to spend a fortune. Here is one easy way to find top free tipsters.

9. How To Get 11% Better Odds Football Betting
A simple strategy that can help you get significantly better odds on your football bets in a couple of under-used betting markets.