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It seems these days as if the whole world is imploring us to have a bet with more and more bookmaker adverts bombarding us everywhere we turn.

Whether it’s being told to ‘Have a bang on that’ or to ‘Stick one on it”- everything is geared towards having as many bets as possible…Yet I want to turn that on its head today and discuss when you shouldn’t place a bet.

Any gambler worth their salt will tell you that knowing when not to bet is often just as important as knowing when to bet. Anything that can save you from backing losers or as today’s article discusses – avoiding placing bets at bad value prices should always be worth your time.

With this in mind, today I want to share with you an excerpt from our most recent Practical Punter Report, written by semi-pro gambler Rowan Day, which we publish every month for SBC members to read. His reports discuss the real-life experiences of actually following tipsters to make money betting and form part of the Practical Betting assistance we provide at SBC.

So without further ado, let me hand over to Rowan…

“Nowadays people know the prices of everything and the value of nothing”

Who’d have thought that Oscar Wilde was into sports betting?

Despite the fact that deep down I knew that placing a bet at 1.7 that had been advised at 2.0 was a fool’s game, I couldn’t bear to face the prospect of letting a potential winner go unbacked.  So in I’d wade, regardless of the price, sticking down my cash with no proper thought.  It really did take me longer than it should have done to realise that my approach was all wrong, and that I needed to pay more heed to obtaining value in my bets.

It wasn’t until I started to read and hear things from people who were obviously more experienced and successful at betting than I was, that I accepted that securing value really is the be all and end all.  I finally came to realise (and it really was a case of being better late than never!) that without this skill, the long term outcome for my betting was not so rosy, no matter how skilled the tipsters within it were at finding winners.

Of course what is an almost impossible task, at least if not using a statistical/mathematical modelling approach to betting, is identifying just how much value exists, if any, in a particular pick.  You need to remember this as you read on.

It’s impossible for any tipster to say there is X amount of value in one of his picks.  He can make a very good judgement as to whether a bet has value or not, and indeed go further and use his skill to identify when a bet has more value than another (which is reflected in his weight of staking), but whether a pick is at odds 5% better than they should be, or 10% or 20%, how precise can you be?  A skilled estimate is the best any tipster can do.

So what we must assume therefore, is that our tipster has identified a solid level of value in each and every selection they advise, and that after the point of bet release, it is down to ourselves to secure as big a chunk of that value as possible.

The Hardest Thing To Do Is Sometimes The Most Simple.

The best piece of betting advice I’ve ever been given is that you don’t ever have to bet.  No-one forces us to strike any bet, although I do understand that we can feel compelled to do so.

I would imagine that the following scenario is familiar to most, if not all of you…

You’re in the midst of a losing spell.  Last minute goals are turning winning bets into losing ones, your horses are always a nose behind in the photo finishes.  You’re feeling more and more frustrated and it’s getting harder to take as you see the balances in your bookmaker accounts falling lower and lower.

It is in this context that you get your email from your tipster who is obviously very confident about a selection, but due to circumstances you’re not able to get the bet on as soon as it was released.  Indeed, by the time you get to your laptop or PC, the price on the selection has crashed from 1.9 to 1.72..

Now, deep down, you know the value must have gone from that bet, right?  But reading the email again, the guy is so confident. It carries a bigger stake than most of his picks.  It must win.  And suddenly you’re telling yourself that amongst all these losers, you just need a win.  Something to plug the leak, stop the rot.  Does it really matter that the price is only 80% of the price the tipster thought represented value?  After all, a winner is a winner.  And how are you going to feel if after backing all these losers, you walk away from a winning bet?

Been there?  I know I have.  Many times.  And it was only relatively recently that I grew the cojones to do the simplest thing in the world…walk away and not bet.  If the price has gone too low, then as the yoof of today say, leave it, yeah?

Determining An Acceptable Price

OK, so we’re determined to be disciplined enough to walk away from placing bets that we know no longer hold any value.  But where do we draw the line between what is an acceptable price to take on a pick, and what is not?

This is a very inexact science and I’m sure there will be statisticians and experts on probabilities that disagree with what I’m about to say.  What I would say to them is that successful betting involves not just playing the numbers correctly, but includes successfully managing the psychological impact of what we’re doing.

It is just as important to get the non-mathematical aspect of running a betting portfolio correct if we are to be successful long term.  If we keep passing over bets because we’re not getting what we deem to be a value price, then it won’t be long before we become disillusioned.  For the sake of our own sanity, we do need to ensure that we are placing the majority of the bets that come through from our tipsters.  We mustn’t be too pernickety, and deny ourselves the opportunities to make some money!

It is on this basis that we have to make some assumptions, the biggest of which is that the tipster has identified a significant amount of value in each of his picks.  So as a general rule, I am looking to take no less than 90% of the officially advised odds on any of my sports bets.  That’s my cut off point, my bare minimum, although I do still want my average odds taken to be much higher, more like 97/98% of the advised odds, and in fact I actually change my acceptable minimum price depending on the nature of the individual bet.

So 90% is my minimum cut-off point for any bet that has moved odds…what do you think yours might be?

You Must Learn To Deal With The Psychology.

If you decide that you are going to implement similar strategies to those I’ve talked about here, then please do ready yourself mentally.  There WILL be times when you miss out on backing winning bets, but remember, there will also be times you don’t place a bet that turns out to be a loser.  It’s a certainty though that your mental aptitude will be tested at some point, and there will be times when you’re left shaking your head and tearing your hair out (at the same time, if your hand/eye co-ordination is good enough!).

Yet whatever you do – remember, you don’t have to bet every time – regardless of what Ray Winstone or Robbie Savage tell you!

More Real-Life Help On Actually Making Tipsters Pay…

This excerpt is taken from Rowans most recent Practical Punter Report, with the full article going on to reveal more on his own scientific approach as to how he decides to take a bet or not.

Alongside this you can also read details on the tipsters that Rowan follows, his ongoing performance and exactly how he makes following tipsters pay for him. Providing inspiration for those of you looking to do the same!

All Practical Punter Reports, including the full back catalogue are available to all Gold SBC members the instant you join our service. They have proven to be very popular amongst our members so why not sign-up now and take advantage of our risk-free money back guarantee.

Sign-up For Instant Smart Betting Club Membership Right Now!

Today for a bit of a walk down memory lane, I have rounded up our 9 most popular blog articles and emails from the last 12 months.

Whether its advice on betting win only or each way, our interview with a bookie insider or how to squeeze better value out of your football bets, there should be something for you. So without further ado, here is the top 9…

1. Why The Bookie Is Not Your Friend!
Bookmakers love to pretend to be on your side, although the reality is often quite different…Here is why plus how Ray Winstone’s Bet365 tips bagged just 1 win in 25!

2. Infiltrating The Bookies With Our ‘Insider Mole’
Read some exclusive excerpts from our interview with a bookmaker insider who spills the beans on how we can beat the ‘enemy’.

3. Eight Expert Football Betting Tips
8 essential tips on how to make a profit football betting from some of the top tipping experts out there.

4. Each-Way Or Win Only… Whats The Best Way To Bet?
Help solving the eternal problem of whether its better to place your bets win only or each way. Includes one example tipster who improved their profits by 72% after choosing the right method.

5. Two Very Different Ways To Make Your Betting Pay
How to compare tipsters the easy way, even if they tip bets at completely different odds, strike-rate or quantity.

6. Your 5-Step Betting Profits ‘Personal Trainer’ Plan for 2014
Our get ‘betting-fit’ guide for the start of the New Year and 5 top tips on how to topple the bookmaker in 2014.

7. Football Betting Stats: Why This Season Has Been So Strange
Exactly why were the first few months of the 2013/14 season so out of sync? Plus possibly the worlds worst system revealed!

8. Why This Free Tipster Demands Your Attention!
It’s a myth that when it comes to finding winning betting tips you need to spend a fortune. Here is one easy way to find top free tipsters.

9. How To Get 11% Better Odds Football Betting
A simple strategy that can help you get significantly better odds on your football bets in a couple of under-used betting markets.

According to the flyer posted through my letterbox by my local David Lloyd Gym this week, research indicates that most people give up on their New Year Resolutions after just 9 days.

So if you had vowed to improve your betting in 2014, there is a good chance you might be on the verge of quitting, given that today is the 10th of January.

If that includes you then to follow-up my article last week on getting ‘betting fit’  in 2014, I have 5 more essential tips to share on making this your best ever punting year yet!

1) Be Realistic!

If I am honest, it’s highly unlikely you will go from nothing to making fortunes gambling in the space of a few months.

There are people making fantastic sums of money betting (Over 1 in 5 SBC members admit to making over £10,000 betting in 2013 according to a recent survey we ran) Yet they have often built up to that standard over a period of time.

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