Value Betting Explained – How ‘Shrewd’ Gamblers Win

With the growing popularity of our Fink Tank Football System, over recent weeks I have been fielding a few questions on just how it (and many other tipsters and systems) actually make money betting.

So I thought today would provide a great opportunity to explain the concept of ‘value betting’ a little bit more and just how shrewd punters get one over the bookies regularly by using it.

As a great example of the type of question punters are asking, below is an email I received last week:

” Hi, I am a little confused as to your system and perhaps you could please clarify a point.

In your example of Arsenal v Norwich you refer to an away win by Norwich at odds of 8.0, and to back it with Totesport having the best odds.

Why would I back Norwich to win the match, when with virtual certainty Norwich will lose the match against Arsenal ?”

Well, this is a very logical question for many when starting off betting and it all revolves around the concept of ‘value betting’

In short, value betting basically means the bet you are placing is available at odds you consider to be too big.

For example, you might have priced up Norwich as an 6/1 bet, yet the bookies are offering 7/1. The theory goes that if you continually back 6/1 bets at 7/1, over the course of time this will make you a good profit.

Happy Hammers Under-Rated This Weekend?

Let me explain this a bit more with the help of an example bet as picked out by the Fink Tank System for this weekend-  Swansea at home to West Ham.

The Fink Tank has priced this game up effectively as:

  • Swansea. Odds of 2.15/1
  • West Ham. Odds of 3.8/1
  • Draw. Odds of 3.66/1

(You can find out how to do this by downloading our Fink Tank Guide here)

If comparing these odds to the best odds available as I write this on Thursday afternoon, the bookies are giving me:

  • Swansea. Odds of 1.75/1 (-18.8% compared to our odds)
  • West Ham. Odds of 5.5/1 (+44.7% compared to our odds)
  • Draw. Odds of 4.08/1 (+11.4% compared to our odds)

This quick analysis shows me that if following the Fink Tank, they suggest there is 44.7% value on the odds of West Ham to win and 11.4% on the odds of the draw.

Value, Value, Value!

Although Swansea are clear favourites in this game and will more than likely win, over the balance of time they will draw and lose a few times. Just like Norwich will eventually win away at Arsenal (If you don’t believe me, think of some recent shocks such as West Brom to beat Man Utd).

If our odds are right and this game was played 100 times, whenever West Ham win we will make 44.7% more that the bookie and when they draw our advantage would be 11.4%.

Here lies the concept of value betting in that we are not trying to back a winner in each bet…we are simply trying to ensure that when our bet does win, it’s at a value price.

Naturally this assumes your estimation is more accurate than the bookmakers which is easier said than done.

It’s not all about backing teams at big prices as even at short priced odds you can find some great value bets, especially via the Fink Tank. Here are some examples of value bets this weekend according to the Fink Tank System:

  • Newcastle’s odds of 2.65 away at Sunderland suggest 14.7% value
  • Charlton’s odds of 3.00 home to Wigan suggest 15.2% value
  • Southend’s odds of 3.25 away at Newport suggest 43% value

It’s not just football where this concept of value betting applies but you can use it for Horse Racing, Golf, Tennis, Cricket…any sport that you can bet upon.

Many of the top tipsters we recommend at the Smart Betting Club use this value betting concept and apply their own knowledge to beat the bookies this way. After all, if you know more than them on a certain sport, over time you will make money.

If you are looking to find more ‘value betting’ tipsters then do consider a Smart Betting Club membership, where we advocate 23 different Hall of Fame services proven to make you a betting profit this way.

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P.s. Yesterday saw the debut of our first SBC ‘Practical Punter’ column, which details the real-life experiences of one member who has been following tipsters profitable for several years.

In the column, not only does he provide access to the tipsters behind this success but all aspects of his approach to betting. Access is exclusive to full Smart Betting Club members only. Sign-up today and gain instant access.