Fink tank

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading →

Champions League Value Bets: Value In the Gunners At Marseille

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
Results have not been good so far with the last round of matches being a virtual wipe out. Most of the bets have been 4.57 so the ratings are clearly finding more value in the underdog so far. The trouble is that the underdog is yet to properly bite. Continue reading →

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Ireland to Edge Armenia

Posted on by Dan

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

42 bets
42 points staked
-3.76 points
-8.95% ROI.

Something of a wipeout last week for the ratings if taking a value betting approach and following them blindly. Highlights were the value found in Wales and the draw in the Italy vs Serbia game. They did at least indicate that there was no value in backing England against Montenegro. Our suggested bets which use a little more discretion and handicaps to even out the game didn’t fare much better. A lot of the games went against the favourites, but there wasn’t much joy for the underdog last weekend. Continue reading →

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Why Liechtenstein offer value against the Scots

Posted on by Dan

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Today’s matches: 

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations by the Castrol ratings:

Montenegro vs England: England 57% chance (No value).
Liechtenstein vs Scotland: Scotland 65% chance (No value).
Wales vs Switzerland: Wales 32% chance (Value).
Nothern Ireland vs Estonia: Nortern Ireland 47% chance (No value).
Andorra vs Ireland (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 88% chance. (No Value). Continue reading →

Champions League Value Bets: Is there value in an under strength Man U?

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Bayern Munich vs Man City: Man City 21.90% Chance. Value with City.
  • Man U v Basel: Man U 89.60% chance. Small value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Olympiakos: Arsenal 72% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Valencia v Chelsea: Chelsea 38.75% chance. No value with Chelsea. Continue reading →

Champions League Value Bets: Can Anyone Beat Barca?

Posted on by Dan

In last year’s Champions League final, Barcelona gave Manchester United a lesson in how to play football. As good as United were, Barca were just untouchable.

As the 2011/2012 builds momentum, there is a lot of talk about how United have learned from that game at Wembley. But can they do it this time or are the Catalans just too strong?

Likely winner & value bets

To help us determine this, the guys at Dectech have calculated the % chance each team has of winning the Champions League this year. This will adjust as the season progresses, but right now, here are their predictions for the main teams and UK interests. We’ve also added the best bookie odds and whether these offer value.
Continue reading →

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings Round Up

Posted on by Dan

For the last 10 days, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

See Monday’s post here:

Update: 

Tuesday’s value bets were not as successful as the previous weekends to put it mildly with a lack of under dog victories hurting the record. We covered the draw well enough though and the damage could have been a lot worse if the ratings hadn’t picked out the value here as well.

Still, things could be a lot worse with the record from the current campaign as follows:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Our bets: 

Not much luck with the highlighted bets so far with the wrong handicap choice hurting us again. This time we should have gone with the Double Chance instead of the Draw No bet.

Latvia vs Greece: Latvia Draw No Bet @ 3.75 Bet 365. Draw. Stake Returned. 
Malta vs Georgia: Malta Draw No Bet @ 3.65 Expekt. Draw Stake Returned. 
Denmark vs Norway: Norway Draw No Bet @ 3.00 William Hill. Home Win, Loss. 

The next Euro 2012 games are in October, so next up for the Castrol ratings/ Fink Tank test will be Champions League fixtures next week.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club. 

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol's ratings

Posted on by Dan

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading →

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol’s ratings

Posted on by Dan

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading →

England favourites to beat Bulgaria…But there's no value in it.

Posted on by Dan

The bookies have England as hot favourites to beat Bulgaria away tonight, but according to Castrol’s ratings, there’s more value in backing Bulgaria.

Last summer we used the Castrol ratings to find value bets in the World cup and had a happy time of it. The final total was +10.49 points from 32 points staked. Click here to check out this tracking experiment.

So for the remainder of the Euro2012 qualifiers, we’ll be tracking where the value lies according to Castrol’s ratings and picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations:

Bulgaria vs England: England 52% chance.
Scotland vs Czech Republic: Scotland 34% chance.
Wales vs Montenegro:  Wales 33% chance.
Northern Ireland vs Serbia: Northern Ireland 16% chance.
Ireland vs Slovakia (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 55% chance. Continue reading →