Month: October 2011

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Ireland to Edge Armenia

Posted on by Dan

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

42 bets
42 points staked
-3.76 points
-8.95% ROI.

Something of a wipeout last week for the ratings if taking a value betting approach and following them blindly. Highlights were the value found in Wales and the draw in the Italy vs Serbia game. They did at least indicate that there was no value in backing England against Montenegro. Our suggested bets which use a little more discretion and handicaps to even out the game didn’t fare much better. A lot of the games went against the favourites, but there wasn’t much joy for the underdog last weekend. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Dettori Defies Draw

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

This week, Scott casts his eye over what was a bumper weekend for the bookies, with plenty of big priced winners, leaving many a punter left scratching their head. None more so than, in the Cesarewitch where Frankie Dettori defied the high draw to inspire the Jamie Osbourne trained Never Can Tell to a 25/1 shock victory.

The Cesarewitch was won by Never Can Tell under an inspired ride by the inimitable Frankie Dettori. Defying the draw of stall 36, Dettori ploughed a lone furrow in the middle of the track. Never Can Tell looked the winner from some way out and so it proved. Prior to the race trainer Jamie Osborne had been bullish telling a colleague “I think Never Can Tell is overpriced. He will stay the trip and is in great shape at home. We will negate the draw by attempting to get near the front and bowl along. With Frankie in the plate I think we have every chance of being placed”. A great raid for all connections. Continue reading →

Why high flying promoted & relegated teams are headed for a fall.

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Newly promoted Southampton are two points clear at the top of the Championship after 10 games, whilst fellow new boys Brighton and relegated West Ham are also in the top five. Further down the English football ladder both Preston and Crawley have got off to excellent starts and sit in the top three in League One and League Two respectively, whilst Braintree Town lie near the top of the Conference.

Elsewhere in Europe, four of the top five teams in the Spanish Segunda (their second division) are either promoted or relegated teams, whilst Brescia who dropped out of Serie A last year, occupy third in Serie B, and Eintracht Frankfurt and St Pauli have responded to their relegations to Bundesliga 2 with excellent starts.

How likely was this?

To anticipate these teams’ progress we have analysed other fast starting promoted and relegated teams across the three lower leagues in England, the Conference, and in Segunda, Serie B, Ligue 2, and Bundesliga 2 since 2003/04. When assessing fast starting teams we have looked at teams that have averaged at least two points per game for either the first six of first 10 games. Continue reading →

Why high flying promoted & relegated teams are headed for a fall.

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Newly promoted Southampton are two points clear at the top of the Championship after 10 games, whilst fellow new boys Brighton and relegated West Ham are also in the top five. Further down the English football ladder both Preston and Crawley have got off to excellent starts and sit in the top three in League One and League Two respectively, whilst Braintree Town lie near the top of the Conference.

Elsewhere in Europe, four of the top five teams in the Spanish Segunda (their second division) are either promoted or relegated teams, whilst Brescia who dropped out of Serie A last year, occupy third in Serie B, and Eintracht Frankfurt and St Pauli have responded to their relegations to Bundesliga 2 with excellent starts.

How likely was this?

To anticipate these teams’ progress we have analysed other fast starting promoted and relegated teams across the three lower leagues in England, the Conference, and in Segunda, Serie B, Ligue 2, and Bundesliga 2 since 2003/04. When assessing fast starting teams we have looked at teams that have averaged at least two points per game for either the first six of first 10 games. Continue reading →

Football Bulletin Special: The Strange Case of The Rooney Clan And the Red Carded Scouser

Posted on by Mike

In this special article, SBC Editor Greg Gordon unpacks the current betting scandal surrounding the Wayne Rooney Clan and suggests that there are a number of high profile Scousers badly in need of some professional betting advice and perhaps even an SBC membership…

At various times in his career, Motherwell midfielder Steve Jennings will doubtless have been warned about the perils of drawing attention to himself through the company he keeps.

He will surely learn the wisdom of that advice over the next few days as his error of judgement becomes a major international news story, thanks to the involvement of Wayne Rooney’s father and uncle, in what can only be described as one of the most cack-handed betting scams in history. Continue reading →

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Why Liechtenstein offer value against the Scots

Posted on by Dan

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Today’s matches: 

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations by the Castrol ratings:

Montenegro vs England: England 57% chance (No value).
Liechtenstein vs Scotland: Scotland 65% chance (No value).
Wales vs Switzerland: Wales 32% chance (Value).
Nothern Ireland vs Estonia: Nortern Ireland 47% chance (No value).
Andorra vs Ireland (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 88% chance. (No Value). Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Rebellious Choice At HQ

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

This week it’s all eyes on Headquarters as Newmarket plays host to some top notch group racing action, where Scott has highlighted plenty of value. Strong fancies include Bronterre, one of his recent horses to follow in the Dewhurst at 7/2, whilst in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes he likes the look of the low-key Rebellious Guest  at a double figure price. Continue reading →

The Inaugural SBC Racing Tipster Awards & Latest Mag

Posted on by Mike

If you think it’s been a bit quiet on the SBC Blog front this week, you would be right as the team here at SBC have been beavering away on our very latest Horse Racing Magazine – released Thursday.

This is no ordinary Horse Racing Magazine though, as it’s an extra special bumper issue, complete with our very first Racing Tipster Awards.

The Inaugural SBC Racing Tipster Awards

To help our members know who the very best tipsters are to follow, our inaugural awards are ideally placed to inform them where to place their money.

These awards are based on long-term performance only (no flash in the pan types here!) and when used in conjunction with our exclusive ratings criteria, we tell you just who the top performers are in the following categories:

Continue reading →

The Inaugural SBC Racing Tipster Awards & Latest Mag

Posted on by Mike

If you think it’s been a bit quiet on the SBC Blog front this week, you would be right as the team here at SBC have been beavering away on our very latest Horse Racing Magazine – released Thursday.

This is no ordinary Horse Racing Magazine though, as it’s an extra special bumper issue, complete with our very first Racing Tipster Awards.

The Inaugural SBC Racing Tipster Awards

To help our members know who the very best tipsters are to follow, our inaugural awards are ideally placed to inform them where to place their money.

These awards are based on long-term performance only (no flash in the pan types here!) and when used in conjunction with our exclusive ratings criteria, we tell you just who the top performers are in the following categories:

Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Dream Victory In Arc

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

This week, Scott unpacks all the action from Paris on Sunday, where the German 3 year old Danedream showed a fine turn of pace to take l’Arc de Triomphe in glorious sunshine. It was also a great weekend for those of you following his horses to follow list, which highlighted a 17/2 winner, Pastoral Player, who romped home at Ascot on Saturday.  Check out Scott’s latest list and the two new inclusions from the weekend to watch out for.

German filly Danedream continued the tremendous run of form of three-year old’s this season by winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Danedream had been granted a generous draw from box two and used her advantage well, winning in a course record time. She had five comfortable lengths to spare at the line over outsider Shareta, with Snow Fairy and So You Think third and fourth. It was a shock result as despite winning the Italian Oaks her form suggested she had to improve significantly to take the Arc. Displaying a super-charged burst of acceleration, Danedream won the race in authoritative fashion to provide a massive boost for German racing. Continue reading →