Last week summed up how difficult it can be at this time of the year and as such I am drawing a line under all Main and Shortlist bets for the season.

Instead my focus is on the Ante-post portfolio, which could either way this weekend depending on so many different outcomes. What we do need is Stoke to finish in the top ten and if possible Wolves and Wigan to go down!

I have just one extra bet for the Ante-post and that is on Newcastle to beat West Brom at 2.11. This is for those of you who backed my early season bet on the Baggies to be the top newcomer for 0.5 pt at 9/4. The two teams face each other at St James Park so a 0.5 pt bet on the home team should they win, will ensure a profit whatever the outcome. Naturally only take this bet if you took the West Brom top newcomer one earlier this season.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Antepost Bet
0.5 pt Newcastle to beat West Brom. 2.11 Canbet/SBOBet

A little later with my bets for this weekend as I have been on a mini-break, which has given me lots of time to mull over all the best options for the penultimate football weekend of the season.

Once again I am keeping my powder relatively dry with 3 shortlist bets and just the 1 main bet in the match between Liverpool and Spurs where I expect goals. The away team have to attack and Liverpool have been irresistible in recent months so the 1.91 on over 2.5 goals looks worthy of a 1pt stake.

The other 3 shortlist bets may well have qualified as main bets in a normal part of the season but with question marks over motivation for some teams and the often bizarre results we can get in May, its wise to keep things tight here.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Main Bets
1 pt Liverpool V Spurs. Over 2.5 goals. 1.91 Stan James

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland (+0 Asian Handicap) V Man City. 2.06 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea (-1.75 Asian Handicap) V Newcastle. 1.91 Stan James
1 pt Birmingham (-0.25 Asian Handicap) V Fulham. 1.96 Pinnacle

This weekend’s fixtures look incredibly tricky with so many different angles to consider, whether it be teams happy to play out a draw or sides with nothing to play for against those fighting relegation. Second guessing a lot of these games is tough as often form, statistics and worst of all – logic goes out the window. With this in mind I am just settling on a few shortlist bets as I have concerns over each for various different reasons. They each to my mind represent value but knowing the motivations and concerns for each team makes it very hard to lump on with big stakes!

Aside from these bets, it will be fascinating to see how the Ante-post line up goes because as it stands we are showing 4.13 pts profit from the 9 pts staked in this section at the moment. A number of bets are touch and go however, such as the 0.5 pt on West Brom to be top newcomer advised at 9/4. Those of you who prefer to lock in profit, may well want to take some of the 6/5 on Newcastle to be top newcomer with VCbet. It will be between the two of them for this honour, although after much consideration I will be holding firm and not trading this just in for now.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Main Bets
None

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Fulham (+0.25 Asian Handicap) V Liverpool. 1.78 Ladbrokes
1 pt Everton (+0 Asian Handicap) V Man City. 2.09 12Bet
1 pt Wolves V West Brom. Over 2.5 goals. 1.88 12Bet

Only a brief message today, but I have found 5 bets, which I feel offer value for this weekend’s action.

Bolton are the first main bet and although a bit Jekyll and Hyde lately, I feel are under-valued away at a Blackburn side in free-fall who are ridiculously short at 2.10 to win. My Liverpool bet is similar to the winning one last Saturday against Birmingham and with Newcastle safe, this to me looks an easy home win for the revitalised Merseysiders. I don’t rate Alan Pardew one bit and Liverpool’s home form is extremely solid, with Suarez really catching the eye. The final main bet is pretty straightforward and looking for at least 3, if not 4 goals in the Blackpool – Stoke City game. The Tangerines are going to have to go for a win here and the goals stats for both teams at home and on the road suggest the 2.06 from Ladbrokes is very generous.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+0.5 Asian Handicap) V Blackburn. 1.92 188bet/12bet
1 pt Blackpool V Stoke City. Over 2.75 goals. 2.06 Ladbrokes
1 pt Liverpool (-1 Asian Handicap) V Newcastle. 1.90 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland (0 Asian Handicap) V Fulham. 1.87 Pinnacle
1 pt West Brom V Aston Villa. Over 2.5 goals. 1.88 Pinnacle

Its Easter Weekend and as usual a feast of football to get stuck into with for once a full Premier League betting card on offer.

Firstly a reflection on the last 2 bets which went against us, with both the games featuring Arsenal – Liverpool and Newcastle – Man Utd failing to witness 3 or more goals as hoped. It was especially galling in the scoreless draw at St James Park as there were no less than 30 shots between the sides.

This weekend you may look at my bets and think they lack imagination as it’s on a string of home teams to win but it is just the way the dice have fallen in terms of value. I must admit there isn’t a whole load of strong looking angles so just the 1 Main bet and 3 Shortlist bets to take in.

Of those home bets, Chelsea look to offer strong value to overcome a 1.75 Asian Handicap when they host a very poor West Ham team, who just don’t have the defensive personnel or wherewithal to keep out Carlo Ancelotti’s men. In half of their home games this season, Chelsea have won by 2 goals or more and the Hammers have been shipping goals of late with the only notable result the away team have picked up of note this season – the 0-0 draw at Spurs. That day only a herculean effort by Hammers custodian Robert Green earnt his side a barely deserved point.  I can’t see him repeating these efforts against a resurgent Didier Drogba and Florent Malouda – maybe even Torres will score!

Drilling down into my Shortlist bets, I fancy both Man Utd and Liverpool to overcome -1 Handicaps at home to Everton and Birmingham respectively. The United bet is similar to the one advised successfully against Fulham a fortnight ago and they have an outstanding home record, especially at home to the Toffees who roll over and have their tummy tickled whenever they go to Old Trafford. Everton have been in good recent form winning 6 of their last 9 games but then they have mostly been against bottom half sides – matches they would generally expect to win.

Local rivals Liverpool have also been impressive at home in general despite well known blips under Roy Hodgson earlier in the season. Birmingham will surely go for a point and one concern is if they are able to put the home team’s youthful backline under aerial and physical pressure and snatch a goal. I do expect the Reds to have too much though and a comfortable win by at least a goal makes the AH line at 1.82 look value.

Finally onto the enigma that is Sunderland who just a few months ago would have been a heck of a lot shorter than 2.15 to beat Wigan at home. This to me looks to be a reaction to short-term form and I do subscribe to the notion that form is temporary, class is permanent. With three points at home to Wigan effectively securing the Black Cats Premier League status for another season, I fancy this as value.

Main Bets
1 pt Chelsea (-1.75 Asian Handicap) V West Ham. 1.83 Canbet/Pinnacle/SBObet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man Utd (-1 Asian Handicap) V Everton. 1.84 10bet/188bet/12bet
1 pt Liverpool (-1 Asian Handicap) V Birmingham. 1.82 Ladbrokes
1 pt Sunderland to beat Wigan. 2.15 William Hill

It seems a long while since we had any midweek Premier League action of note to get stuck into and the footballing gods are shining on us in the next couple of days with a few tasty fixtures to get amongst.

First of all there is the must win game down at White Hart Lane where Spurs host fierce rivals Arsenal in what should be a cracking contest for the neutral. Both teams need 3 pts for differing reasons, so it should be fairly attacking game, especially considering the current North London based goalkeeping black hole. Both sides have about 8 goalies on their books, yet they would struggle to make one decent composite between them!

Betting wise in this game, despite the stats indicating that the under 2.5 goals in this game looks value, I have passed upon it bearing in mind the likely gung-ho nature here. You can get 2.20 with 188bet pre kick-off but my advice is to look to the in-play markets instead for good trading options.

I have picked out one strong value bet, but this time in the over 2.5 goals market in the game featuring Newcastle and Man Utd, where the away team will be chomping at the bit to get the FA Cup Semi defeat out of their system. United have their talisman Rooney back, who will have fond memories of this ground having stuck a brace past the Geordies last time up at St James Park. 188Bet are offering odds of 1.93 on over 2.5 goals, which equates to a 51.81% chance of occurring according to them. The stats tell a different picture with Newcastle’s home games having seen 59 goals in 15 games and United on the road seeing 51 goals in their 15 matches. That makes 30 games in total, in which both sides have kept just 6 clean sheets between them and with Steve Harper and Rio Ferdinand doubtful, each team may will be missing a key part of their back 5. I make the percentage chance of 3 goals or more about a 60%+ chance so some stonking value here to get stuck into.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Man Utd. 1.93 188bet

We enjoyed a bumper return last weekend with all 3 Main bets winning to really boost the seasonal figures as we enter the last month or so of action. There are only 6 games to choose from in the Premier League this weekend with the FA Cup Semi-Finals at Wembley and there isn’t a huge amount of value out there as far as I can see. I have just one Main and one Shortlist bet for this weekend as so many of the teams playing are inconsistent, injury-prone or just priced up pretty well by the bookmakers.

My one main bet is down at the Emirates this Sunday where Arsenal host Liverpool in game likely to be over-shadowed by the Bolton – Stoke City fixture the same day (not a statement I often expect to write). I think the bookies have under-estimated the chances of goals here and the 1.95 on over 2.5 goals looks to be a shade too big judging by the evidence (Even the next best odds of 1.91 still look far too big). We all know that Arsenal haven’t been firing of late but they have still seen 42 goals in their 15 home games and gone past the overs mark 56% of the time. We also have similar stats for Liverpool and looking at the relatively soft defence for both sides I think we should see goals. Whether its Lehmann or Almunia in nets for the Gunners, Suarez, Carroll et al will test them a lot more than Blackpool did, whilst Liverpool at the back have injuries and are missing a number of key defenders. Kenny Dalglish has not been able to settle on a winning away formula for his new charges and defeats away at WBA and West Ham lately reflect that.

My only shortlist bet is again in the over 2.5 goals market and features a favoured team of mine for this bet – West Ham who are far from convincing defensively as they have proven in recent weeks. The bookies are slowly cottoning on but still odds of 1.86 on over 2.5 goals in their home game against Villa looks too high for me. Both these teams have seen over 3 goals on average per game home and away respectively and I make the chance of this bet greater than then 53.7% chance that odds of 1.86 implies.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Arsenal V Liverpool. 1.95 Betsson. Next best 1.91 Pinnacle/Canbet/188bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Aston Villa. 1.86 Pinnacle/12Bet