Its Easter Weekend and as usual a feast of football to get stuck into with for once a full Premier League betting card on offer.
Firstly a reflection on the last 2 bets which went against us, with both the games featuring Arsenal – Liverpool and Newcastle – Man Utd failing to witness 3 or more goals as hoped. It was especially galling in the scoreless draw at St James Park as there were no less than 30 shots between the sides.
This weekend you may look at my bets and think they lack imagination as it’s on a string of home teams to win but it is just the way the dice have fallen in terms of value. I must admit there isn’t a whole load of strong looking angles so just the 1 Main bet and 3 Shortlist bets to take in.
Of those home bets, Chelsea look to offer strong value to overcome a 1.75 Asian Handicap when they host a very poor West Ham team, who just don’t have the defensive personnel or wherewithal to keep out Carlo Ancelotti’s men. In half of their home games this season, Chelsea have won by 2 goals or more and the Hammers have been shipping goals of late with the only notable result the away team have picked up of note this season – the 0-0 draw at Spurs. That day only a herculean effort by Hammers custodian Robert Green earnt his side a barely deserved point. I can’t see him repeating these efforts against a resurgent Didier Drogba and Florent Malouda – maybe even Torres will score!
Drilling down into my Shortlist bets, I fancy both Man Utd and Liverpool to overcome -1 Handicaps at home to Everton and Birmingham respectively. The United bet is similar to the one advised successfully against Fulham a fortnight ago and they have an outstanding home record, especially at home to the Toffees who roll over and have their tummy tickled whenever they go to Old Trafford. Everton have been in good recent form winning 6 of their last 9 games but then they have mostly been against bottom half sides – matches they would generally expect to win.
Local rivals Liverpool have also been impressive at home in general despite well known blips under Roy Hodgson earlier in the season. Birmingham will surely go for a point and one concern is if they are able to put the home team’s youthful backline under aerial and physical pressure and snatch a goal. I do expect the Reds to have too much though and a comfortable win by at least a goal makes the AH line at 1.82 look value.
Finally onto the enigma that is Sunderland who just a few months ago would have been a heck of a lot shorter than 2.15 to beat Wigan at home. This to me looks to be a reaction to short-term form and I do subscribe to the notion that form is temporary, class is permanent. With three points at home to Wigan effectively securing the Black Cats Premier League status for another season, I fancy this as value.
1 pt Chelsea (-1.75 Asian Handicap) V West Ham. 1.83 Canbet/Pinnacle/SBObet
1 pt Man Utd (-1 Asian Handicap) V Everton. 1.84 10bet/188bet/12bet
1 pt Liverpool (-1 Asian Handicap) V Birmingham. 1.82 Ladbrokes
1 pt Sunderland to beat Wigan. 2.15 William Hill