We enjoyed a bumper return last weekend with all 3 Main bets winning to really boost the seasonal figures as we enter the last month or so of action. There are only 6 games to choose from in the Premier League this weekend with the FA Cup Semi-Finals at Wembley and there isn’t a huge amount of value out there as far as I can see. I have just one Main and one Shortlist bet for this weekend as so many of the teams playing are inconsistent, injury-prone or just priced up pretty well by the bookmakers.
My one main bet is down at the Emirates this Sunday where Arsenal host Liverpool in game likely to be over-shadowed by the Bolton – Stoke City fixture the same day (not a statement I often expect to write). I think the bookies have under-estimated the chances of goals here and the 1.95 on over 2.5 goals looks to be a shade too big judging by the evidence (Even the next best odds of 1.91 still look far too big). We all know that Arsenal haven’t been firing of late but they have still seen 42 goals in their 15 home games and gone past the overs mark 56% of the time. We also have similar stats for Liverpool and looking at the relatively soft defence for both sides I think we should see goals. Whether its Lehmann or Almunia in nets for the Gunners, Suarez, Carroll et al will test them a lot more than Blackpool did, whilst Liverpool at the back have injuries and are missing a number of key defenders. Kenny Dalglish has not been able to settle on a winning away formula for his new charges and defeats away at WBA and West Ham lately reflect that.
My only shortlist bet is again in the over 2.5 goals market and features a favoured team of mine for this bet – West Ham who are far from convincing defensively as they have proven in recent weeks. The bookies are slowly cottoning on but still odds of 1.86 on over 2.5 goals in their home game against Villa looks too high for me. Both these teams have seen over 3 goals on average per game home and away respectively and I make the chance of this bet greater than then 53.7% chance that odds of 1.86 implies.
Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Arsenal V Liverpool. 1.95 Betsson. Next best 1.91 Pinnacle/Canbet/188bet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Aston Villa. 1.86 Pinnacle/12Bet