Losing Runs

Want to win at betting? Learn about losing first

Posted on by Peter Ling

One of the best podcasts I have heard in a long-time dropped on Thursday with an exceptional discussion featuring analyst Joseph Buchdahl on the reality of betting for anyone that has aspirations of winning.

Joseph was the latest guest on the Pro Bet Podcast hosted by Mark Holder and Andrew Lowrie (2 former SBC podcast guests no less) and one of the topics he constantly referred to was how key it is to understand losing runs and how to handle them.

Its critical because no matter how good you are as a bettor, simple maths and probability dictate you will have losing runs at some point in your betting journey.

It is therefore how you handle, understand and prepare for them that often makes the difference between carving out a profit long-term or not.

Many punters ignore this at their cost – perhaps because they don’t want to think about losing and what it might be like when a bad run hits.

Yet take it from me – understanding this concept and the things that Joseph talks about in this episode is 100% crucial to long-term success.

MY ‘CONTROVERSIAL’ ARTICLE ON LOSING RUNS

This podcast episode also made me reflect on an article I wrote nearly 2 years ago on understanding losing sequences and the probability that underpins them. An article that is still hugely relevant today but one that seemed to be controversial at the time judging by some of the feedback received.

After publishing it, I had emails telling me “Why would anyone follow that tipster” but of course, those people entirely missed the point.

It’s not about the tipster in question (who has a 20 year profitable record no less) and all about the mathematics that underpin value betting.

This is because even the most hardened professionals have stories on losing runs that can make your eyes water.

If you meet someone who doesn’t, likely they are lying about the fact they are a professional!

No tipster or bettor will ever escape them and it’s only by embracing and understanding sequences and probability (some actual very simple concepts) that will you know what to do when the time comes.

So here is that article again. I hope you enjoy it and if you do – make sure you listen to Joseph Buchdahl’s interview!

THE RECOMMENDED TIPSTER WITH 26 LOSERS IN A ROW

Be honest with yourself. How likely are you to stick with a tipster, no matter how good their reputation, if they put up 26 losing bets in a row?

Chances are that most people, especially if paying for tips would throw in the towel long before they placed the 27th bet.

Yet, that is exactly the situation that unfolded with the SBC Hall of Fame service – the Daily Bargain in October 2020 when the first 26 bets of the month all lost.

(A Hall of Fame service is simply one of those we fully advocate to SBC members after several years of monitoring, thousands of results and deep analysis of the tipster in question)

As Steve who oversees the Daily Bargain puts up 1 bet a day, that was 26 days of consecutive losers, which will no doubt have seen some posing questions such as why have we at SBC recommended this service in the first place?

It must be some kind of mistake or perhaps even a scam as surely no subscription charging tipster could ever put up 26 losers in a row, could they?

Well, yes they can and in today’s article I am going to explain why as part of a very important discussion on mathematical sequences.

WHY UNDERSTANDING SEQUENCES IS VITAL WHEN BETTING

Many losing bettors are fooled by their lack of understanding of sequences in relation to the odds and strike-rate of the tipster they follow.

A run of 26 losers in a row, whilst sounding unlikely, is in fact entirely reasonable to expect given the strike-rate of the Daily Bargain.

The historical strike-rate for this service over 2500 bets since 2012 has sat at about 15%. Just under 1 in 7 bets win.

When we run this past the wonderful ‘Don’t Go Broke’ article I regularly reference from the Daily Bargain website itself, a tipster with a 15% strike-rate is rated to have as follows:

  • A 75% chance of 25 losers in sequence
  • A 50% chance of 30 losers in sequence
  • A 25% chance of 36 losers in sequence

So as unlikely as it sounds a run of 26 losers in sequence is reasonably likely to happen over a large enough sample size.

THE TURNAROUND…

The above is important as it gets to the heart of a flawed viewpoint that many punters wrongly believe – that if you pay for tips, you should win more often.

The reality is that you will continue to win just as often as the strike-rate of the tipster dictates. If the tipster wins 15% of the time, you will still win 15% of the time long-term.

Over the course of a short-term period, you will always see fluctuations in that – just as we saw in the first 26 bets of October 2020 for the Daily Bargain when it hit a 0% strike-rate.

Yet, what I haven’t yet discussed in this article is what happened between the 29th October and the 2nd November 2020 as you might have guessed by now…things changed!

Each of the 5 bets advised during this period by the Daily Bargain all won to make back the losses incurred in the first 26 bets of October and add plenty of profit on top.

To simple 1 point stakes, a deficit of -26 points had risen to a profit of +17.67 points.

A swing of 43.67 points in your favour.

What a turnaround and reward for those following during the fallow days of October for their patience. The losing run had been easily absorbed.

Taken as a whole, over the course of the 31 bets between the 1st October and 2nd November, this saw 31 bets advised, with 5 bets winning.

Which equates to…you guessed it a 16.12% strike-rate of success.

Just a smidgen above what the service has achieved long-term since 2012.

It is also worth pointing out here that during those 26 bets in October without a winner, 6 of them placed, finishing 2nd or 3rd at odds of 20/1, 10/1, 7/1, 7/1, 13/2, 11/2. So, it is not as if they all ran badly – sometimes it’s just a series of near misses that go against you, during a bad run. You must remain patient for the rewards to come your way.

 

THE SAME MATHS APPLY WHETHER PAYING FOR TIPS OR NOT

The truth is that even if paying for a quality tipster service like the Daily Bargain, there is no getting away from the maths that underpin betting.

So don’t be fooled into the notion that if paying for tips, they will lose less.

They will lose the same amount as their long-term strike-rate dictates. In the Daily Bargain’s case – 15% of the time, they will win. 85% of the time they will lose.

What will change is the profits you make based on the odds you place the bets at.

Because as long as taking a value price, such as the Daily Bargain advocates, then over the course of time, you will end up in profit.

Yet these profits never come in a straight line. You might get 26 losers in a row; you might get 5 winners in a row. You will have losing months and sometimes they unfold over several months.

The sequences will change. At times they will frustrate you and at others they will delight you. You simply have to be patient and not fall into the trap that gets so many punters who don’t understand the simple mathematics behind sequences.

The trick is not to micro-manage and live out your results day-to-day, week-to-week or even month-to-month.

If you do so, you might fall into the trap of quitting too soon. Like any punters that stopped following the Daily Bargain after the 26th loser in October 2020.

THE IMPORTANCE OF A BETTING BANK

To help you cope with sequences, you also need a betting bank to cover yourself when bad runs hit.

This is why we recommend a 100 points bank for the Daily Bargain, because even if you joined on the 1st October, you would have only lost 26% of your bank at that point.

Come the 2nd November, you would have been up 17.67 points or 17.67% of your bank.

The betting bank is there to help keep your staking in check when a bad run hits, because all bettors, no matter how experienced do feel the pain of losing to some degree.

Over time and once you have ridden this storm a few times, it gets easier to handle, but if new to betting in this way and if you struggle to keep focus when in a losing spree, a betting bank is absolutely crucial.

Don’t forget either that each individual bet you place is almost always totally disconnected from the last bet you placed (assuming placed on different games/races)

So just because your last bet won or lost, it makes it no likelier that your next bet will do the same.

The horse running in the 3.10 at Kempton you have just backed has no idea that the horse you backed yesterday in the 2.20 at Wolverhampton lost.

It’s a completely different race with different horses, jockeys and conditions entirely. So try not to think about runs of ‘good form’ or ‘bad form’ and instead focus on the bigger picture.

That alongside a greater understanding of the betting strike-rate can make a world of difference to your betting.

And as ever you also need patience. Patience in abundance at times, but for those of you able to apply this to your betting – the rewards are there with the right tipsters.

 

DISCOVER MORE ON TOP TIPSTERS & HOW TO WIN WITH SBC

If you are interested in learning more about both the top tipsters we recommend AND what it takes to win long-term as a bettor, then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

Not only do we guide you as to the best tipsters to follow like the Daily Bargain, via our Hall of Fame ratings and regular Tipster Profit Reports.

But we also do our best to explain, educate and inform on how to setup like a professional and handle the psychological swings of betting.

For every tipster we review and recommend we give ratings and scores on things like risk and profitability as well as guidance on the size betting bank you need if following.

You can also read the Pro Gambler Blueprint guide (65 page PDF) and our special 54-page Betting Psychology Guide, entitled ‘How to get the Betting X-Factor‘ as an SBC member.

Furthermore, you can also save on quality tipsters such as the Daily Bargain thanks to the discounts we offer SBC members. For example, you can enjoy an extra month free of charge to the Daily Bargain as an SBC member if subscribing to them.

Best of all you can sign-up today and enjoy a full money back guarantee if not satisfied by what we offer. Membership is available from as little as £29.99 per quarter.

​Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access

The recommended tipster with 26 losers in a row – understanding sequences & the maths that underpin value betting

Posted on by Peter Ling

Be honest with yourself. How likely are you to stick with a tipster, no matter how good their reputation, if they put up 26 losing bets in a row?

Chances are that most people, especially if paying for tips would throw in the towel long before they placed the 27th bet.

Yet, that is exactly the situation that unfolded with the SBC Hall of Fame service, the Daily Bargain in October when the first 26 bets of the month all lost.

(A Hall of Fame service is simply one of those we fully advocate to SBC members after several years of monitoring, thousands of results and deep analysis of the tipster in question)

As Steve who oversees the Daily Bargain puts up 1 bet a day, that was 26 days of consecutive losers, which will no doubt have seen some posing questions such as why have we at SBC recommended this service in the first place?

It must be some kind of mistake or perhaps even a scam as surely no subscription charging tipster could ever put up 26 losers in a row, could they?

Well, yes they can and in today’s article I am going to explain why as part of a very important discussion on mathematical sequences I would encourage you all to read.

Why Understanding Sequences Is Vital When Betting

Many losing bettors are fooled by their lack of understanding of sequences in relation to the odds and strike-rate of the tipster they follow.

A run of 26 losers in a row, whilst sounding unlikely, is in fact entirely reasonable to expect given the strike-rate of the Daily Bargain.

The historical strike-rate for this service over 2500 bets since 2012 has sat at 14.89%. Just under 1 in 7 bets win.

When we run this past the wonderful ‘Don’t Go Broke’ article I regularly reference from the Daily Bargain website itself, a tipster with a 15% strike-rate is rated to have as follows:

  • A 75% chance of 25 losers in sequence
  • A 50% chance of 30 losers in sequence
  • A 25% chance of 36 losers in sequence

So as unlikely as it sounds a run of 26 losers in sequence is reasonably likely to happen over a large enough sample size.

The Turnaround…

The above is important as it gets to the heart of a flawed viewpoint that many new punters wrongly believe – that if you pay for tips, you should win more often.

The reality is that you will continue to win just as often as the strike-rate of the tipster dictates. If the tipster wins 15% of the time, you will still win 15% of the time long-term.

Over the course of a short-term period, you will always see fluctuations in that – just as we saw in the first 26 bets of October for the Daily Bargain when it hit a 0% strike-rate.

Yet, what I haven’t yet discussed in this article is what happened between the 29th October and the 2nd November as you might have guessed by now…things changed!

Each of the 5 bets advised during this period by the Daily Bargain all won to make back the losses incurred in the first 26 bets of October and add plenty of profit on top.

To simple 1 point stakes, a deficit of -26 points had risen to a profit of +17.67 points.

A swing of 43.67 points in your favour.

What a turnaround and reward for those following during the fallow days of October for their patience. The losing run had been easily absorbed.

Taking as a whole, over the course of the 31 bets between the 1st October and 2nd November, this saw 31 bets advised, with 5 bets winning.

Which equates to…you guessed it a 16.12% strike-rate of success.

Just a smidgen above what the service has achieved long-term since 2012.

It is also worth pointing out here that during those 26 bets in October without a winner, 6 of them placed, finishing 2nd or 3rd at odds of 20/1, 10/1, 7/1, 7/1, 13/2, 11/2. So, it is not as if they all ran badly – sometimes it’s just a series of near misses that go against you, during a bad run. You must remain patient for the rewards to come your way.

I should also make clear that in the 10 days since the 2nd November and this article being written, the Daily Bargain has also enjoyed three more big winners at 8/1, 12/1 and 9/2 so the rewards for being patient in October are now being reaped big time.

The Same Maths Apply Whether Paying For Tips or Not

The truth is that even if paying for a quality tipster service like the Daily Bargain, there is no getting away from the maths that underpin betting.

So don’t be fooled into the notion that if paying for tips, they will lose less.

They will lose the same amount as their long-term strike-rate dictates. In the Daily Bargain’s case – 15% of the time, they will win. 85% of the time they will lose.

What will change is the profits you make based on the odds you place the bets at.

Because as long as taking a value price, such as the Daily Bargain advocates, then over the course of time, you will end up in profit.

Yet these profits never come in a straight line. You might get 26 losers in a row; you might get 5 winners in a row.

The sequences will change. At times they will frustrate you and at others they will delight you. You simply have to be patient and not fall into the trap that gets so many punters who don’t understand the simple mathematics behind sequences.

The trick is not to micro-manage and live out your results day-to-day or week-to-week.

If you do so, you might fall into the trap of quitting too soon. Like any punters that stopped following the Daily Bargain after the 26th loser in October…

The Importance Of A Betting Bank

To help you cope with sequences, you also need a betting bank to cover yourself when bad runs hit.

This is why we recommend a 100 points bank for the Daily Bargain, because even if you joined on the 1st October, you would have only lost 26% of your bank at that point.

Come the 2nd November, you would have been up 17.67 points or 17.67% of your bank.

The betting bank is there to help keep your staking in check when a bad run hits, because all bettors, no matter how experienced do feel the pain of losing to some degree.

Over time and once you have ridden this storm a few times, it gets easier to handle, but if new to betting in this way and if you struggle to keep focus when in a losing spree, a betting bank is absolutely crucial.

Don’t forget either that each individual bet you place is almost always totally disconnected from the last bet you placed (assuming placed on different games/races)

So just because your last bet won or lost, it makes it no likelier that your next bet will do the same.

The horse running in the 3.10 at Kempton you have just backed has no idea that the horse you backed yesterday in the 2.20 at Wolverhampton lost.

It’s a completely different race with different horses, jockeys and conditions entirely. So try not to think about runs of ‘good form’ or ‘bad form’ and instead focus on the bigger picture.

That alongside a greater understanding of the betting strike-rate can make a world of difference to your betting.

And as ever you also need patience. Patience in abundance at times, but for those of you able to apply this to your betting – the rewards are there with the right tipsters.

Discover More On Top Tipsters & How To Win With SBC

If you are interested in learning more about both the top tipsters we recommend AND what it takes to win long-term as a bettor, then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

Not only do we guide you as to the best tipsters to follow like the Daily Bargain, via our Hall of Fame ratings and regular Tipster Profit Reports.

But we also do our best to explain, educate and inform on how to setup like a professional and handle the psychological swings of betting.

For every tipster we review and recommend we give ratings and scores on things like risk and profitability as well as guidance on the size betting bank you need if following.

You can also read the Pro Gambler Blueprint guide (65 page PDF) and our special 54-page Betting Psychology Guide, entitled ‘How to get the Betting X-Factor‘ as an SBC member.

Furthermore, you can also save on quality tipsters such as the Daily Bargain thanks to the discounts we offer SBC members. For example, you can enjoy an extra month free of charge to the Daily Bargain as an SBC member if subscribing to them.

Best of all you can sign-up today and enjoy a full money back guarantee if not satisfied by what we offer. Membership is available from as little as £29.99 per quarter.

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

If you have any questions on this article or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via pete@smartbettingclub.com. I respond to all emails as quickly as I can!

SBC Insight: Understanding your strike-rate & the losing runs that go with it – Essential punting advice

Posted on by Peter Ling

Without doubt one of the biggest barriers to making your betting a success is learning how to deal with the psychological challenges that it can bring – especially when it comes to the dreaded losing run.

We have all been on them – those runs where you can’t see where your next winner is coming from.

The type that see you constantly topping up your bookmaker account and the feeling you are hemorrhaging money.

It’s why 2 punters who start following the same tipster can often end up with very different results. Often because during a losing run, one of them quits in reaction to a short-term run of form.

There is no shame in this – after all the emotion of betting can be very hard to handle, especially when you are expecting to make a profit and yet you keep losing.

Yet there is a way to get through them – simply by having a better understanding of some fundamentals that underpin value betting such as your strike-rate.

Learning About Losing Runs

To help you understand more on this topic, I want to share with you below a tremendous article as published by Steve Jones of the CD Systems service. It serves to educate you on strike-rates and how they can guide you as per losing runs and what to expect.

For example, a tipster service with a 49% strike-rate has a 50/50 chance of hitting 10 losers on the bounce over a 650 bet period.

Most services hitting such a strike-rate will likely advise bets between say 11/10 and 11/8, so how likely are you to stay the course if you backed 10 losers in sequence at odds of 11/8?

Many people during such a sequence would throw in the towel, yet this is not always the wisest move.

This article is one I return to again and again, especially during the dark days of betting when I can’t see where my next winner is coming. Because no-one is immune to bad runs, yet how we handle and react to them is vitally important.

And despite what you might think – just because you pay for tips, it doesn’t mean they will lose less. The fundamentals of probability remain the same, yet if these tips are based on a ‘value betting strategy’ with an edge, long-term it will reap dividends.

My thanks to Steve for giving me permission to share this article and I hope you enjoy it. You can read more about Steve and his services at the CD Systems website.

For further insight – Steve also recommends spending 20 minutes or so at https://justflipacoin.com and recording the sequences generated by random even-money spins. The results will surprise many and would need to be fully understood by anyone seriously intending to embark on a lengthy series of short-priced bets.

Don’t Go Broke! Understanding Losing Runs

Reproduced with permission – see the original at http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/dont_go_broke!.htm

One of the quickest ways to disaster is to be ignorant about losing sequences. They can occur without warning at any time, and they can quickly devastate a betting bank if it is of insufficient size to absorb them.

First of all, how do you know what the length of these losing sequences is likely to be? Well actually, that is fairly easy to predict, provided you have an accurate idea of your strike rate.

Sequences are directly related to strike rate, and you can mathematically determine the likelihood of specific sequences appearing, provided you know what percentage of the bets in a series are going to win. You can then use this criteria to set up your betting bank.

My view is that the size of your opening bank should equal the longest losing sequence you could encounter during an extended series of bets, multiplied by your maximum stake.

To illustrate, I have produced the table below, which you can use to determine your staking strategy. Let’s say, for example, you estimate that your strike rate over a series of 600 bets will be around 40%.

Please note at this stage that there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ strike rates – they are all purely relative to the price range you decide to target – please refer to my article How Many Winners? in conjunction with this procedure (opens in a new window).

Use Your Strike-Rate To Determine Losing Runs

As can be seen from the table below, with a 40% strike rate you can expect to have a losing sequence of 10 somewhere in the series (there is a 75% chance of that happening). However, there is a 50% chance of your hitting a losing sequence of 12 and a 25% chance of a run of 14 losers. That sequence of 14 is less than likely to occur, but it will still happen, on average, once in every four series.

On the other side of the coin, you have a 75% chance of hitting at least one winning run of 6 during the series. A sequence of 7 is a 50:50 possibility and a successful run of 8 has a 25% chance of occurring. Those figures can be seen in the 60% row (take your strike rate away from 100 and look in the row for the difference in order to anticipate winning sequences).

Finally, with a less than 1% chance, you are likely to confront a losing sequence of 20 no more often than once in every hundred series. However, that is the figure you should use in constructing your betting bank. If you are to operate professionally that is what you must do.

Using the formula I mentioned earlier, you would multiply the longest losing sequence you could encounter during the series (in the above example that would be 20) by your maximum stake. If that is, say, 5 points, then your starting bank should be 100 points.

Losing Runs Happen To Everyone

Please don’t make the common mistake of thinking these sequences won’t happen to you. They are mathematically determined by your strike rate and will happen as often as they are entitled to, whether you like it or not. Nobody can avoid them, but the difference between a professional and an amateur is that the professional is fully prepared for them. When they do occur it certainly doesn’t mean that you are ‘out of form’ or doing anything wrong.

It is also recommended that you set aside a reserve bank which can be used to temporarily top up the main bank in extreme circumstances. For example, a downturn which is over and above any which had originally been catered for (perhaps the original strike rate calculation was based on insufficient data and needs amending).

Once you have accurately anticipated your strike rate, you will be able to use the table below to optimise your bank structure.

Provided the average price of your winners is sufficient for your strike rate, as explained in How Many Winners?, and your bank is set up in such a way as to absorb sequences, then you will never have a problem. You will be well on your way to securing a successful future in a professional manner.


Anticipation of Sequences – Table

Please note: The table below is based on a series of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.

 

Strike Rate

(%)

Anticipation of Sequences
Expected

(75% chance)

50:50

(50% chance)

Unlikely

(25% chance)

V. Unlikely

(<1% chance)

383105132235
46986106185
5597390153
6526478130
7465768113
8425161101
938475691
1035435182
1133404775
1230374469
1329344164
1427323860
1525303656
1624293453
1723273250
1822263047
1921252945
2020242842
2119232640
2218222539
2317212437
2417202335
2516192234
2615192133
2715182131
2814172030
2914171929
3013161928
3113161827
3212151726
3312151725
3412141624
3511141624
3611131523
3711131522
3810131521
3910121421
4010121420
419121320
429111319
439111319
449111218
458111218
468101217
478101117
488101116
498101116
50791115
51791015
52791015
53791014
54781014
5568914
5668913
5768913
5868913
5968912
6067812
6157812
6257811
6357811
6457811
6557711
6656710
6756710
6856710
6946710
704679
714669
724669
734569
744568
754568
764568
773568
783558
793557
803557
813457
823457
833457
843456
853446
863446
872446
882446
892445
902345

 

I hope you enjoyed this article – if you have any feedback on it, please do share your thoughts with me via email – pete@smartbettingclub.com

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

 

 

1 winner from 41 bets – Why you should follow this tipster

Posted on by Peter Ling

A Bookies Nightmare – that’s the theme of our latest Tipster Profit Report focusing exclusively on several very profitable Horse Racing Tipsters that continue to ride a wave of success.

Yet to balance it out today, and with this recent article on Value Betting firmly in my thoughts, I also wanted to outline a couple of reality checks on life following a racing tipster.

Not a reality check in the form of a worry these top rated experts don’t know their stuff. Because they do – the profits they make are real.

But a reality check in terms of what to expect when following a racing tipster

And the very strong reality that even the best betting experts suffer a losing run.

Because experience tells me that when a punter understands this – it becomes so much easier to follow tipsters and to avoid the one thing that catches most unwary punters out – quitting a tipster at exactly the wrong time.

Handling Losses A Rite of Passage For Any Tipster

One of the biggest warning signs I look for when observing a tipster is if they have never had a losing run of some kind.

In my experience, even the very best experts have losing months.

So if I see a racing tipster in business for 30 months, yet every single month has been profitable – well it sets alarm bells that all is not what it seems.

I wonder “Are these results legitimate?” and often when you dig deeper, they aren’t.

Simply because to go 30 months without making a loss in at least a few of them is unrealistic and unprobable.

It’s important to recognise that just because you pay to follow a tipster – this does not mean that they will not suffer occasional losing runs.

They will and its important to understand this.

Let me show you more with a couple of high-profile examples…

 

1 Winner In 37 Tips From This ‘Expert’

Firstly, lets use focus on ‘Tipster X’ – which is a very long-running racing service with a major edge.

This tipster has made 3669 points profit @ 12.4% ROI over more than 15,000 bets since 2014.

He knows how to make a profit betting and its been a ‘Hall of Fame’ rated service for several years now.

In our Racing Tipster Profit Report, we reported back on his latest progress since our last update, which saw 138 points profit made @ 26.89% ROI from 138 bets between May and August 2019.

A very nice profit indeed.

Yet, that isn’t the full story as within those 138 bets, there was plenty of ups and downs along the way.

Including a run from the 20th July of 38 bets and just 1 winner, during which this tipster lost 66.88 points.

That is a strike-rate of just 2.6%.

Fancy paying a tipster for that!?

Because had you joined on the 20th July or at some point during those 38 bets, you would have every right to question what took place.

Why was this top-rated tipster giving nothing but losers? After all, SBC rate him in their Hall of Fame and you have spent money to join him!

The reality is that this run of 38 losers was just randomness at play and as long as sticking firm, the rewards would flow as indeed they did.

Of the very next 83 bets advised since this run of losers, the service has made a 143.77 point profit.

Making back the 66.68 points lost and adding another 77.09 points profit on top!

This short-term run of losers was over and in some style and had you quit at the wrong time then you would be kicking yourself right now!

1 Winner in 41 From This 2nd ‘Expert’

To highlight how often this kind of thing happens, another highly rated expert we recommend – lets call him Tipster Y also had a similar bad run of form in August 2019.

During one period, he advised 41 bets and found just 1 winner, losing 22.24 points.

That is a strike-rate of just 2.5%.

Imagine paying for that kind of tipping advice!

Yet, despite this loss, over the 4 month period we covered between May and September, he actually made a total profit of 17.61 points @ 16% ROI from 199 bets.

And when you look back to the first 4 months of the year (Jan to April) he also made 41.04 points @ 53.78% ROI from 138 bets.

So the year is very nicely in profit despite this run of 1 winner from 41 at one point in time.

In total, 2019 sits up 58.65 points profit @ 31.36% ROI from 337 bets

Which once again goes to illustrate the need for patience, even with the best experts.

Have A High Odds / Low Strike-Rate Mentality

One thing both Tipster X and Tipster Y have is a focus on bigger price selections.

During their losing runs, the approximate average odds of a tip put forward by Tipster X was 11/1 and Tipster Y 17/2.

When you are backing at higher odds like this, your strike-rate will always be lower and there will be times when it gets really low as we saw with 1 in 38 and 1 in 41 above.

This is something I will be exploring in more detail in a forthcoming article on strike-rates and what to expect, but for now do be aware that the higher the strike-rate, the greater the likelihood of a losing run.

Whatever You Do – Don’t Quit At The Wrong Time!

I wanted to pen this article today not to scare you from using tipsters, but to just help provide some context on the reality of what to expect at times.

Betting professionally is never PROFIT, PROFIT, PROFIT – there will always be challenging times, yet with both the examples of Tipster X and Y above, you can be reassured that they know how to help you win as they have between them over 20 years of doing exactly that.

What I do want to encourage is the simple notion of having a longer-term and more patient mindset and to disabuse the idea that simply because you pay for tips, you will no longer have a bad run.

I do at times come across some punters unaware of this fact and they are likely the type who will have quit Tipster X or Tipster Y at some point during the losing runs I outlined above.

Which of course is exactly the worst thing you can do as significant profits were just around the corner.

Discover More With SBC

If you enjoyed this article and want to know more about the Smart Betting Club’s work reviewing and rating tipsters, you can read more on this at our Tipster Review Process section.

As that outlines, whether it be a horse racing, football, baseball, golf or tennis tipster under the review microscope – we leave no stone unturned in our quest to examine what is on offer and we focus very much on long-term profits.

Not just what a tipster made just last week or in August, but several years and often thousands of thousands of past bets.

Giving re-assurance that when we say a tipster is good, it really is.

If you like what you read – then you can join the Smart Betting Club at our lowest ever prices for 2019 and all with a money-back guarantee to boot.

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Founder

How To Cope When Your Bets Lose | Handling Losing Runs

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In my email last week, I touched upon the pain of losing bets, a topic that seems to have spoken to many of you judged by my mailbox over the last 7 days.

Most betting sites or tipsters won’t tackle this subject (for obvious reasons) yet it seems plenty of you are looking for answers on this subject.

Whether it be learning how to stay on track during a losing run, dealing with how losing bets can affect your mood or simply a desire to help you cope better during times of betting adversity – I hope my email today can help provide some assistance.

When it comes to handing losing, it is all part of what I term the ‘battle of the betting mind’

And it is this ‘battle’ that I have seen make the difference between success and failure for many a punter.

Yes, you might be following a profitable tipster, but if I gave 25 random people access to the same tipster and the same setup, I would likely get 25 different sets of results.

The profit and loss for each of the 25 will vary depending on whether they followed the tipster properly in terms of placing every bet, staking consistently, taking the right odds with the right bookmaker and of course how they handle losing bets…

“In 2016, I made GBP 38,000 on horse racing “…

“Although I’ve changed some of the tipsters I follow, there’s a core group whom I rely on. In 2016, I managed to make GBP 38,000 on horse racing.”    
As written by ‘K’ – An SBC member for several years

Click here to read more from ‘K’ on his SBC experience

How To Handle Losing Bets – 5 Tips

Fully aware of the challenges many punters face during this ‘battle of the betting mind’, I commissioned a special 54-page Betting Psychology Report, entitled ‘How to get the Betting X-Factor‘ to tackle it in greater detail.

Authored by betting psychology expert, Jeff Smith, his report serves to unravel what lies behind successful sports betting and ultimately help you adopt the mindset of a professional gambler.

Because after all, finding a good tipster is the easiest part (many of our Hall of Fame tipsters tick all the right boxes) but adopting the right mindset requires expert guidance.

For example, one section is dedicated to how ‘thinking in probabilities’ can really help us cope with losing bets and puts forward 5 tips to improve our betting mind.

I have summarised them as follows:

  1. Always believe that anything can happen: Never bet your house on something because you believe something is guaranteed – Who would have thought that New England Patriots would win the Superbowl when 28-3 down!
  2. Understand that you don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money: You take a position on something uncertain like the result of football match, but you can’t control the outcome.
  3. Keep in mind that there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. Even a coin flipped 10 times could come up heads every time!
  4. Remember an edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing over another. Just because you backed a horse at 6/1 when it should be 4/1 doesn’t mean it will win! It’s still a 4/1 shot. It will win 1 in every 4 races on average.
  5. Finally, accept that every moment in betting is unique. You’re never ‘due a winner’ and just because you nailed your football bets last weekend doesn’t mean you do it again this weekend. If you backed Man Utd to win last week, it will have no bearing on whether your next bet on Man Utd will win. They are 2 completely separate events.

Mindset of a Pro Gambler

4 Step Success Formula

Inside the report, Jeff also puts forward his own simple 4-step success formula when betting, which he outlines as follows:

Strategy

Broken down into each part it makes perfect sense.

Get the winning strategy, stake correctly, stick to your budget and as long as YOU can handle the ups and downs of betting, then you will enjoy positive results.

Here is how the Smart Betting Club is setup to help you do exactly this:

  1. Strategy: We track 55+ of the best tipsters and constantly review new ones to put forward the best experts for you to follow. Finding the right tipster is the easy part!
  2. Money Management: Not only do we reveal the best tipsters, we also show you how to follow them correctly with our betting bank recommendations. Discover how much you can safely stake on each tipster to maximise profits and minimise risk.
  3. Capital: We all have different betting budgets, but we can help you whatever your starting point – whether it be following free tipsters (such as the 4 supplied to you as an SBC member) or those that charge a little more. The key point is that any tipster you do follow offers value for money.
  4. You: The final ingredient is how you pull it all together and win the battle of the betting mind. Reports like the Betting X-Factor by Jeff or our Pro Gambler Blueprint will help you on this front.

 

“Becoming A Better Punter”

“The Smart Betting Club helps you to become a better punter and simply make more money betting. My members have the numbers to prove it. 
Samuel – Bettin.gs

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Win Your Betting Battle!

Our goal here at SBC is a simple one – to help you make money betting, which is why it’s so important to me to help as many of you as possible when it comes to this topic.

I don’t want to shy away from the difficult challenges like losing bets as the chances are – you will lose more bets than you win over your betting lifetime.

If you are keen to understand more than do check out Jeff’s Betting Factor report – here are some of the other insights he also reveals within it:

  • How to achieve continuous marginal gains in sports betting.
  • Key questions to ask yourself as you bet
  • How to build your betting investment plan.
  • Money management – stake size and psychology.
  • The power of beliefs.
  • How to remove limiting beliefs.
  • How to think in terms of probability.
  • How to develop yourself for betting success.

Access to Jeff’s Betting X Factor Magazine is available the instant you become a Smart Betting Club member

What’s more, you can currently save £35 on the cost of subscription so don’t delay, sign-up here right now and let us help you get started betting better right away!

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

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“90-Day 100% Satisfaction Money Back Guarantee”……

“I believe so strongly in SBC’s ability to help your betting, you can subscribe with a 100% cast-iron 90-day money back guarantee”.
SBC Editor – Peter Ling     Subscribe Now

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