Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.
The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading
Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.
The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading
The bookies have England as hot favourites to beat Bulgaria away tonight, but according to Castrol’s ratings, there’s more value in backing Bulgaria.
Last summer we used the Castrol ratings to find value bets in the World cup and had a happy time of it. The final total was +10.49 points from 32 points staked. Click here to check out this tracking experiment.
So for the remainder of the Euro2012 qualifiers, we’ll be tracking where the value lies according to Castrol’s ratings and picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.
First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations:
Bulgaria vs England: England 52% chance.
Scotland vs Czech Republic: Scotland 34% chance.
Wales vs Montenegro: Wales 33% chance.
Northern Ireland vs Serbia: Northern Ireland 16% chance.
Ireland vs Slovakia (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well): Ireland 55% chance. Continue reading
The bookies have England as hot favourites to beat Bulgaria away tonight, but according to Castrol’s ratings, there’s more value in backing Bulgaria.
Last summer we used the Castrol ratings to find value bets in the World cup and had a happy time of it. The final total was +10.49 points from 32 points staked. Click here to check out this tracking experiment.
So for the remainder of the Euro2012 qualifiers, we’ll be tracking where the value lies according to Castrol’s ratings and picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.
First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations:
Bulgaria vs England: England 52% chance.
Scotland vs Czech Republic: Scotland 34% chance.
Wales vs Montenegro: Wales 33% chance.
Northern Ireland vs Serbia: Northern Ireland 16% chance.
Ireland vs Slovakia (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well): Ireland 55% chance. Continue reading
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. We tested their English Premier League ratings in the 2010/2011 season were very pleased with the results, returning over 50 points level stakes profit.
How we tested it:
For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank/ Dectech and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds.
Fink Tank/ Dectech provide their predictions in the form of estimated probabilities for the home win, draw and away win. You can then compare this to the available odds to assess whether a particular game offers value.
Here’s how the probabilities are displayed by Dectech/ Fink Tank
For example if the game is Blackburn vs Wolves, Fink Tank might give Blackburn a 51.4% chance. This means that according to the ratings, Blackburn should win 51.4 times out of a hundred.
Finding value
The next step is to find out if those ratings offer value. The ratings might give Man U a 68.3% chance of an away win against Blackpool, but are the bookies taking this into account with the odds they are offering?
Here’s how:
Step 1) First we need to compare like for like. This means we need to see what the ratings percentages are equivalent to in bookie odds. To work this out, divide 100 by the predicted percentage. So for the Man U game, divide 100 by 68.3. This gives decimal odds of 1.46.
Step 2) Check for value. Now use an odds comparison site such as www.oddsportal.com. If the bookmakers are offering odds above 1.46 on Man U to win, it means there is value in the bet, but if they’re offering odds below 1.46 it means they are being too tight with the odds.
The difference between the predicted probability and the available odds gives you a measure of the % value available.
Here’s a typical table that we worked with:
Ratings Performance in 2010/2011.
We took this value betting approach last season to test the ratings. This meant we’d bet on the team if their predicted chance was greater than the chance implied by the bookie odds. E.g. Dectech gave Bolton 53% chance, the bookies only gave them a 45% chance. It doesn’t mean you’re going to win, just that you are more likely to win that the odds imply.
A point is equivalent to a mythical £1 on every bet.
Here’s the home & away comparison.
| Bets | Profit | ROI | |
| All bets | 310 | 52.37 | 16.89% |
| Homes | 153 | 26.6 | 17.00% |
| Aways | 152 | 27.6 | 18.00% |
The ratings performed superbly last season when taking this value betting approach. As good as these results appear, it certainly wasn’t a smooth ride with the profits coming in fits and starts, usually as big winners were landed. Notable highlights included West Brom to beat Arsenal away at 17.50, Newcastle to beat Arsenal away at 13.04, Wigan to beat Spurs away at 12.59 and Wolves to beat Liverpool away at 10.00. These four bets alone account for the bulk of the profits made over the season! This is worth bearing in mind before we read too much into last season’s results.
You can check our testing posts from last season with this link.
2011/2012 Season.
This season we’ll be posting the full list of value picks exclusively on our members’ betting forum, but we will continue to post up a couple of games each week here.
A word of warning though in that the ratings may be a little off in the first few games of the season if they are based on last year’s stats, so we suggest caution in the first few weeks.
As an example, here are 3 of the top value bets from the first weekend of betting in the Premier League this season.
Fink Tank
To get the full list of qualifiers each week, sign up to the Smart Betting Club today.
Today we released SBC’s Essential Guide to Football Betting stacked with free systems, tipster and analysis for the 2011/2012 football season.
We couldn’t fit all this content in a single edition, so as a special bonus we have made available one of the sections for all to read.
Editor in chief Greg Gordon asked a selection of the football experts that we monitor to provide some ideas on dark horses, sleepers and teams to avoid in this coming football season….
Dark Horses, Sleepers and Teams To Avoid
Having covered The Premiership, We set our caucus of top tipsters the onerous task of unearthing value bets hidden with the morass of Europe’s football markets.
Here is our rundown of the best long-term wagers on offer, those teams to oppose and teams we should side with.
England
Like Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman, Greg Gordon of Scottish Football Bets, and Phil Brown of Betting Laying Club have taken a shine to Brighton.
Phil Says: “I feel Brighton under the guidance of Gus Poyet will give the Championship a real go this season at 20/1 and expect their big signing Mackail-Smith to score plenty of goals.” Continue reading
You can find some background on this test here.
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.
Update:
It was a storming weekend for the Fink tank ratings, picking up Villa, Spurs and Fulham to win away. The season’s total now stands at 52 points with an ROI of 17%. Not bad at all!
This weeks:
Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The ratings have thrown up some big value in certain games this weekend, but they are probably best taken with a pinch of salt with a very different United team likely to run out against Blackpool.
For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.
You can find some background on this test here.
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.
Update:
It was a storming weekend for the Fink tank ratings, picking up Villa, Spurs and Fulham to win away. The season’s total now stands at 52 points with an ROI of 17%. Not bad at all!
This weeks:
Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The ratings have thrown up some big value in certain games this weekend, but they are probably best taken with a pinch of salt with a very different United team likely to run out against Blackpool.
For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.
You can find some background on this test here.
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.
This week’s bets:
Not a bad week last week with Everton & Newcastle nice value picks. Stoke beating Arsenal was the icing on the cake. Season’s total stands at new equity high of 40.22, with an ROI of 14%. Not bad at all.
Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.
For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.
You can find some background on this test here.
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.
This week’s bets:
Not a bad week last week with Everton & Newcastle nice value picks. Stoke beating Arsenal was the icing on the cake. Season’s total stands at new equity high of 40.22, with an ROI of 14%. Not bad at all.
Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.
For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.