daily bargain

4 Tipsters Profitable On The Betting Exchange

Posted on by Alex Lyons

If you’ve recently been struggling with bookmaker restrictions and limitations then my latest article and video for SBC may help a great deal.

I recently recorded a video on the subject which you can watch here.

In this article I feature 4 Tipsters that are profitable on the Betting Exchange.

This means, no restrictions, no closures and viable long term options.

Betting on Betfair or other betting exchanges such as Smarkets, Matchbook and Betdaq can be seen as the holy grail for some sports bettors. If you can find a profitable strategy at the exchange you will not have to subject yourself to the various issues you will face when winning at the bootmakers.

Such issues as account closures or bet restrictions are commonplace for winning bettors at bookmakers. If winning at the exchange however, you will not face these problems and your experience will be very different.

Unfortunately it is not an easy thing to do and people normally find it much easier to beat the bookmakers. This is mainly due to the fact that the smartest bettors bet at the exchange so you have to beat these guys if you want to make a profit.

Luckily for us, SBC have been proofing tipsters that are profitable on the exchange for many years now. This means we have long term records for these services and we can clearly see there is potential to make money on the exchange by following some of these services.

In this article I’ve highlighted 4 services that all have long term profitable records on the exchanges.

Hopefully this will provide some valuable insight to those of you that are struggling with winning at the bookies and are looking for a viable alternative.

Ben Coley

Service highlights

Ben is perhaps one of the biggest names in golf betting and tips for the betting website Sporting Life. He was reviewed by SBC in SBC Betting Magazine 119 and while the results assessment in that piece was based on bookmaker results, an odds comparison exercise was done showing that better odds could regularly be achieved at Betfair Exchange.

Pete who conducted the review mentions this in the ‘Odds Movement & Exchange Strategy’ section.

“The issue of odds movement is one that Ben freely admits to in our interview that follows. It is therefore important to be aware of this before committing to back his tips as you will find occasions when the odds on his selections have moved beyond what you should reasonably take.”

He went on to provide a previous example of this which clearly shows the better odds at Betfair. These selections were tipped for the Portugal Masters in September 2020.

Note – Coetzee won with Laurie Canter 2nd to make it a very profitable tournament!

3pts e.w. George Coetzee at 18/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Best odds 24 hours later: 15/1 (bookmaker) and 18.5 (Betfair)

1.5pts e.w. Jason Scrivener at 30/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Best odds 24 hours later: 30/1 (bookmaker) and 44 (Betfair)

1.5pts e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Best odds 24 hours later: 25/1 (bookmaker) and 29 (Betfair)

1pt e.w. Laurie Canter at 70/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Best odds 24 hours later: 66/1 (bookmaker) and 75 (Betfair)

1pt e.w. Jake McLeod at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Best odds 24 hours later: 100/1 (bookmaker) and 130 (Betfair)

The caveat here being you will not get the place concessions on the exchange like you would at a bookmaker. Bookies often will pay anywhere from 7 to 11 places rather than the standard 5 places at 1/4 odds.

We’re able to get round this by splitting our place bet between the top 5 and top 10 markets on Betfair.

If taking this course of action, here is how the returns would vary if staking £100 with either the bookmaker at 18/1 or on Betfair as per the above.

  • Coetzee wins: £1080 Bookmaker profit & £1042.23 Betfair profit
  • Coetzee top 5 finish: £130 Bookmaker profit & £85.73 Betfair profit
  • Coetzee top 7: £130 Bookmaker profit & £27.47 Betfair loss
  • Coetzee top 10: £130 Bookmaker loss & £27.47 Betfair loss

So here you can see slightly less money was made at Betfair but if some of the other selections had won, you would have made more. Plus, a small sacrifice of profit is well worth it when considering you won’t be losing accounts at the exchange.

Ben’s all time record as proofed by SBC stands at +1187.4 pts @ 26.5% ROI. So you can see even if you lose a small chunk of profit it’s very much worth betting at the exchange. Our findings regularly show you can get much better odds there so there’s potential to even increase this ROI.

The Poacher

Service highlights

  • SBC Premium service
  • Specialises in Spanish football markets
  • All tips are advised at the exchange
  • Market conditions have to be right – odds/liquidity
  • All time record +46.88 pts @ 4.03% ROI
  • Discounts for SBC members

The Poacher is a football tipster that actually tips all of his bets at Betfair Exchange. This means there is no bookmaker comparison to do, no involvement with the bookie at all and the betting record that has been proofed by SBC is 100% based on exchange prices.

That betting record shows an all time record of +46.88 pts @ 4.03% ROI. This is going back to 2019 so it’s a steady long term profitable record, beating one of the sharpest places to bet around.

As it’s a football service the ROIs are smaller than some other sports but you’ll often find a lot more liquidity in football markets meaning you can get a lot more money down. The strike-rate is higher too so it is suitable for those of you with bigger betting banks that want reliable returns and lower variance.

The Poacher specialises in the Spanish football markets, mainly La Liga and the 2nd division.

CD Systems Daily Bargain

Service highlights

  • https://www.cdsystems.uk.com/
  • All time record +484.92 pts @ 31.02% ROI
  • Tips at bookies but exchange bets are possible as explored in SBC 118
  • Profitable at Betfair SP
  • Discounts for SBC members

The 3rd tipster I’ve featured is a horse racing tipster called CD Systems – Daily Bargain. SBC reviewed this service in magazine 118 and the results proofed were based on bookmaker bets and the Betfair starting price.

The bookmaker bets have shown an all time profit of +484.92 pts @ 31.02% ROI.

The Betfair SP record showed an all time profit of +147.27 pts @ 6.01%

Both these records are going back to 2012.

You can see there’s a big difference in profits here but betting at BFSP since 2012 has still shown a profit. This is very interesting and suggests Steve Jones who runs the service has an edge over the market.

This is because BFSP is seen as ‘true value’ in horse racing meaning you’d expect to break even if betting at that price over the long term.

In SBC 118 Steve mentions this point in his interview with Pete.

“Betfair SP is perhaps the closest thing we have to true chance, albeit retrospectively. Given that the aim of the game is to make bets at better than true chance, my job is to unearth bets that can be placed at prices bigger than perceived true chance.

Clearly, the most basic rule of betting is that we cannot possibly win in the long term if we don’t consistently make bets at greater than true chance odds.

On that basis, I don’t feel that producing performance stats in comparison to true-chance prices is beneficial. No professional would dream of making bets at true chance and any variation between Betfair SP (a 100% market) and true chance would only be either temporary, coincidental or the result of some outside factor (such as an influential tipster or a trader manipulating the market).”

In a nutshell – Steve is not a fan of Betfair SP betting and it is easy to understand why. Beyond setting the minimum price you can take; it doesn’t allow you to know what price you obtain until after the event – something that goes against the whole theory of value betting.

But as Steve went on to explain, there is certainly value (and sometimes huge value) in betting on his selections in the pre-race and in-play market…

“Having said all of the above, I do have plenty a number of members who successfully use the Betfair exchange in conjunction with my bets.

Their techniques involve placing unmatched money at a range of prices, upwards of the recommended minimum price and going out further than the biggest bookmakers’ prices, then selecting the ‘in-play’ option, as there are a significant number of big prices matched in-running.

All the highest matched Betfair Exchange prices can all be viewed historically on the Timeform Results site.”

A really interesting angle here then when mentioning placing bets using the ‘in-play’ option at Betfair. Often in-play prices can fluctuate wildly and winners can hit much much bigger prices in-play than their SP.

You can see how to do this in the below example…

At the very least we would advocate checking the Betfair pre-race market and requesting your bets be taken at the value odds put forward each day by Steve. It might make more sense to also request larger prices in case the bet drifts in price significantly.

As ever, the more time and effort you can put into following the Daily Bargain, the more you can make out of it. If able to take 10% better prices than Betfair SP, you can expect your ROI in turn to rise to 15.24% and if taking 15% better prices than Betfair SP, it would go up to 19.87% ROI.

This backs up when Steve also told us that “The bigger the gap between my minimum advised price (which is my idea of true chance – in other words, what SP should be) and the price you are able to secure, the better for your long-term profit.“

PGA Profit

Service highlights

  • SBC Premium service
  • Tips PGA Tour only
  • +498.38 pts on the exchange since November 2020
  • Provides bookmaker and exchange prices
  • Featured in SBC 121
  • SBC discounts available

The final tipster featured is an SBC Premium service and another golf tipster in PGA Profit. It’s actually a service that I use myself at Betfair Exchange and I’ve already made huge returns from it…more on that in a minute.

For this service we’re lucky to have a big chunk of the results that have been proofed by SBC based on exchange bets. Since November 2020, the service’s record at Betfair is +498.38 pts. To put this in context, bookmaker profits from the same period stand at +524.83 points. So slightly less, but as mentioned before you should be more than prepared to take a hit on profits to be able to find a profitable strategy at the exchange.

And from a personal point of view, when I’ve used this service I’ve been able to regularly get better odds than what has been quoted in the tips. So if I had been using this service for the same period of time I may well have beaten the recorded points profits of +498.38.

Just for transparency, here is my personal betting record when using the service. I’m only 62 bets in but clearly have joined at the right time having hit 4 winners since I started following.

Here’s an example of a couple of PGA Profit’s tips which show exchange prices advised alongside bookmaker prices.

You can see that PGA Profit will tip the price in the top 5 finisher market at Betfair Exchange so the exchange points profit is based on this strategy. It’s also the strategy I’ve been following myself.

To Sum Up…

In my opinion any viable profitable strategy at the exchange is gold. If you find one, hold onto it, cherish it and put your time and resources into making the most out of it. You should be well rewarded if you do.

Hopefully this article has provided a first step into the world of betting profitably at the exchange. If you can dedicate some bankroll to any of these strategies then it is certainly worth giving it a go. It may allow you to grow your bankroll like you never have before.

As always, if you have any questions I’m happy to answer them at alex@smartbettingclub.com

Tipster Video Diary – Follow Alex’s journey using 4 SBC recommended betting services

Posted on by Peter Ling

Building a successful betting portfolio is not always straightforward and at SBC we try to give people the knowledge to succeed in this game.

That’s why we’re asking SBC team member and part-time bettor, Alex to document his betting journey using tipsters in a video series to show you exactly how it is done.

The first video is now live on our YouTube channel.

In it he details the 4 services he is using, all SBC recommended, in an attempt to turn a profit from betting this year. He goes through how each service works and the specific strategies he will be using for each.

If you want to know any of the following…

  • The strategies used for some of the best SBC recommend services
  • Bankroll management for building a successful portfolio
  • Real-world potential profits on offer

Then you’ll definitely want to watch this video diary.

This is the first video in the series which will be tracking exactly what Alex is doing and the results that come from each service. These are some of the most highly recommended services by us at SBC so it’s very likely that there will be some good profits along the way (in fact he has already recorded some healthy figures testing these services out).

Alex is going to show the precise strategy he uses to build a successful betting portfolio.

Watch the first video here

Best Regards
Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club
Owner and Founder

The recommended tipster with 26 losers in a row – understanding sequences & the maths that underpin value betting

Posted on by Peter Ling

Be honest with yourself. How likely are you to stick with a tipster, no matter how good their reputation, if they put up 26 losing bets in a row?

Chances are that most people, especially if paying for tips would throw in the towel long before they placed the 27th bet.

Yet, that is exactly the situation that unfolded with the SBC Hall of Fame service, the Daily Bargain in October when the first 26 bets of the month all lost.

(A Hall of Fame service is simply one of those we fully advocate to SBC members after several years of monitoring, thousands of results and deep analysis of the tipster in question)

As Steve who oversees the Daily Bargain puts up 1 bet a day, that was 26 days of consecutive losers, which will no doubt have seen some posing questions such as why have we at SBC recommended this service in the first place?

It must be some kind of mistake or perhaps even a scam as surely no subscription charging tipster could ever put up 26 losers in a row, could they?

Well, yes they can and in today’s article I am going to explain why as part of a very important discussion on mathematical sequences I would encourage you all to read.

Why Understanding Sequences Is Vital When Betting

Many losing bettors are fooled by their lack of understanding of sequences in relation to the odds and strike-rate of the tipster they follow.

A run of 26 losers in a row, whilst sounding unlikely, is in fact entirely reasonable to expect given the strike-rate of the Daily Bargain.

The historical strike-rate for this service over 2500 bets since 2012 has sat at 14.89%. Just under 1 in 7 bets win.

When we run this past the wonderful ‘Don’t Go Broke’ article I regularly reference from the Daily Bargain website itself, a tipster with a 15% strike-rate is rated to have as follows:

  • A 75% chance of 25 losers in sequence
  • A 50% chance of 30 losers in sequence
  • A 25% chance of 36 losers in sequence

So as unlikely as it sounds a run of 26 losers in sequence is reasonably likely to happen over a large enough sample size.

The Turnaround…

The above is important as it gets to the heart of a flawed viewpoint that many new punters wrongly believe – that if you pay for tips, you should win more often.

The reality is that you will continue to win just as often as the strike-rate of the tipster dictates. If the tipster wins 15% of the time, you will still win 15% of the time long-term.

Over the course of a short-term period, you will always see fluctuations in that – just as we saw in the first 26 bets of October for the Daily Bargain when it hit a 0% strike-rate.

Yet, what I haven’t yet discussed in this article is what happened between the 29th October and the 2nd November as you might have guessed by now…things changed!

Each of the 5 bets advised during this period by the Daily Bargain all won to make back the losses incurred in the first 26 bets of October and add plenty of profit on top.

To simple 1 point stakes, a deficit of -26 points had risen to a profit of +17.67 points.

A swing of 43.67 points in your favour.

What a turnaround and reward for those following during the fallow days of October for their patience. The losing run had been easily absorbed.

Taking as a whole, over the course of the 31 bets between the 1st October and 2nd November, this saw 31 bets advised, with 5 bets winning.

Which equates to…you guessed it a 16.12% strike-rate of success.

Just a smidgen above what the service has achieved long-term since 2012.

It is also worth pointing out here that during those 26 bets in October without a winner, 6 of them placed, finishing 2nd or 3rd at odds of 20/1, 10/1, 7/1, 7/1, 13/2, 11/2. So, it is not as if they all ran badly – sometimes it’s just a series of near misses that go against you, during a bad run. You must remain patient for the rewards to come your way.

I should also make clear that in the 10 days since the 2nd November and this article being written, the Daily Bargain has also enjoyed three more big winners at 8/1, 12/1 and 9/2 so the rewards for being patient in October are now being reaped big time.

The Same Maths Apply Whether Paying For Tips or Not

The truth is that even if paying for a quality tipster service like the Daily Bargain, there is no getting away from the maths that underpin betting.

So don’t be fooled into the notion that if paying for tips, they will lose less.

They will lose the same amount as their long-term strike-rate dictates. In the Daily Bargain’s case – 15% of the time, they will win. 85% of the time they will lose.

What will change is the profits you make based on the odds you place the bets at.

Because as long as taking a value price, such as the Daily Bargain advocates, then over the course of time, you will end up in profit.

Yet these profits never come in a straight line. You might get 26 losers in a row; you might get 5 winners in a row.

The sequences will change. At times they will frustrate you and at others they will delight you. You simply have to be patient and not fall into the trap that gets so many punters who don’t understand the simple mathematics behind sequences.

The trick is not to micro-manage and live out your results day-to-day or week-to-week.

If you do so, you might fall into the trap of quitting too soon. Like any punters that stopped following the Daily Bargain after the 26th loser in October…

The Importance Of A Betting Bank

To help you cope with sequences, you also need a betting bank to cover yourself when bad runs hit.

This is why we recommend a 100 points bank for the Daily Bargain, because even if you joined on the 1st October, you would have only lost 26% of your bank at that point.

Come the 2nd November, you would have been up 17.67 points or 17.67% of your bank.

The betting bank is there to help keep your staking in check when a bad run hits, because all bettors, no matter how experienced do feel the pain of losing to some degree.

Over time and once you have ridden this storm a few times, it gets easier to handle, but if new to betting in this way and if you struggle to keep focus when in a losing spree, a betting bank is absolutely crucial.

Don’t forget either that each individual bet you place is almost always totally disconnected from the last bet you placed (assuming placed on different games/races)

So just because your last bet won or lost, it makes it no likelier that your next bet will do the same.

The horse running in the 3.10 at Kempton you have just backed has no idea that the horse you backed yesterday in the 2.20 at Wolverhampton lost.

It’s a completely different race with different horses, jockeys and conditions entirely. So try not to think about runs of ‘good form’ or ‘bad form’ and instead focus on the bigger picture.

That alongside a greater understanding of the betting strike-rate can make a world of difference to your betting.

And as ever you also need patience. Patience in abundance at times, but for those of you able to apply this to your betting – the rewards are there with the right tipsters.

Discover More On Top Tipsters & How To Win With SBC

If you are interested in learning more about both the top tipsters we recommend AND what it takes to win long-term as a bettor, then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

Not only do we guide you as to the best tipsters to follow like the Daily Bargain, via our Hall of Fame ratings and regular Tipster Profit Reports.

But we also do our best to explain, educate and inform on how to setup like a professional and handle the psychological swings of betting.

For every tipster we review and recommend we give ratings and scores on things like risk and profitability as well as guidance on the size betting bank you need if following.

You can also read the Pro Gambler Blueprint guide (65 page PDF) and our special 54-page Betting Psychology Guide, entitled ‘How to get the Betting X-Factor‘ as an SBC member.

Furthermore, you can also save on quality tipsters such as the Daily Bargain thanks to the discounts we offer SBC members. For example, you can enjoy an extra month free of charge to the Daily Bargain as an SBC member if subscribing to them.

Best of all you can sign-up today and enjoy a full money back guarantee if not satisfied by what we offer. Membership is available from as little as £29.99 per quarter.

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

If you have any questions on this article or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via pete@smartbettingclub.com. I respond to all emails as quickly as I can!