The Poacher – Betting Exchange Football Tips
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Featuring exclusive advice from bookmaker industry expert, The Poacher, who since January 2019 has showcased his edge by making a 36.31 point profit from 765 bets at 4.62% ROI
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Listen To The SBC Podcast Interview With ‘The Poacher’.
Learn more about The Poacher in this new podcast interview with the Smart Betting Club as published in January 2021.
As part of a deep dive into his work as a profitable bettor, we discuss his background in betting, the process behind how he finds value on Betfair and his work running ‘The Poacher’ service since 2019.
If you enjoy this and are keen to hear more – simply search ‘Smart Betting Club’ wherever you get your podcasts!
Introducing The Poacher
The Poacher is a truly unique football service in that it is overseen by a former bookmaking industry employee who uses his expertise to help identify profitable betting opportunities.
Having worked for many different bookmaker firms for over 20 years, he recently left the industry in order to commit more time to his own betting.
His approach also appeals because all of his advised bets can be placed and followed on betting exchanges like Betfair, making it ideal for those of you restricted or limited by bookmakers.
With a 2 year free proofing period showcasing a fine profit over his first 753 bets, on the 15th January 2021, The Poacher introduced a subscription fee for those of you wishing to gain exclusive access to his specialist football betting tips.
The Poacher’s Tipping Record
To prove his ability as a football tipster, The Poacher supplied all of his football tips free of charge to Smart Betting Club members between January 2019 and the 14th January 2021.
Such a strong profit was made over the 753 free tips advised during this period, that from the 15th January 2021, a fee for access to his tips was introduced.
Overall, since January 2019, The Poacher made 36.3 points @ 4.6% ROI from 765 bets as per the table below:
For those of you wishing to explore these results further, you can access a Google Sheets spreadsheet via this link. This results spreadsheet will be updated on a regular basis (usually bi-monthly) with the latest figures.
The Poacher Betting Bank Growth
We recommend 3 different points betting bank sizes for you to choose from if following The Poacher.
Simply divide your starting financial betting bank by the points betting bank you feel most comfortable with and use that as your stake.
For example, if you begin with a £2000 financial betting bank and wish to take the higher-risk approach of a 30 point betting bank, your stake per point would be £2000 / 60 = £66.66.
Below you can see how a notional £2000 would have grown over the lifetime of the service:
A Sensible & Realistic Approach To Football Betting
Football remains one of the most popular markets to bet upon, yet equally one of the most difficult at times to turn a profit from. The amount of money traded on football ensures that many markets are very efficient and therefore finding true, value bets requires real skill and aptitude.
This is why football tipsters often operate to what in comparison to other sports such as horse racing and golf might seem ‘low Return on Investment (ROI) figures’ of usually between 2 and 4%.
Yet the reality is that such ROI figures represent a realistic return and when you add into the equation the fact that bookmakers are very unlikely to limit or close your accounts betting on major football competitions, its easy to see the appeal.
You can stake more and therefore win consistently without the fear that one big winner (as can be the case with horse racing) might see your accounts closed.
For all of the bets advised by The Poacher you will be able to match the odds quoted on exchanges such as Betfair, Smarkets, Matchbook and Betdaq. Those of you with bookmaker accounts might also found occasions when you can also take them with these firms.
SBC Football and services like The Poacher are therefore here to offer a sensible, long-term approach to building football betting profits for those with the patience, disciple and staking to make it pay.
These services are not ‘get-rich-quick’ schemes but if following in each and every bet as advised, the long-term edge is there to be witnessed.
More About The Poacher
To help showcase more on The Poacher and his expertise, he answered the following questions on his background, areas of specialism, bet type, placement and what you can expect to make following his advice:
Introduction: Can you talk a bit about your background in betting and pedigree as a football tipster?
At the time of writing (January 2021) I have been advising selections for SBC members for two years now after commencing back in January 2019. I was connected with SBC by a mutual friend, with whom I discussed football with on a regular basis and that’s basically how it all started.
I have bet on football for many years where much of my focus has been on Spain, where I have developed an understanding of how the teams play and and angles to profit from in these leagues. I also have a very good grasp of Ligue 1 in France and also perform well with my Champions League and Europa League bets. In the 2nd half of 2020, I also added in selective bets on International Football and the Premier Division in Ireland, which have both proven profitable so far.
Betting Specialism: Can you explain more about these leagues and competitions you target and why you have an edge in them?
I believe my edge is in knowing how particular teams play under certain conditions. I also look for patterns from teams, both good and bad that over a short term I can use to my advantage. I pay particular attention to goals especially at what stage in a game they are being scored. Teams that regularly score late goals tend to be reliable and I like to focus on these these as well.
I think the most important question to ask when looking at a market is “Why?”
For example a team that are on a poor run but yet are still priced up short is one example where I would wonder ‘Why is this the case?’. Have they had a particularly tough set of fixtures, lots of injuries or are the layers wrong in their price?
It is also vital to be able to spot a team about to come into form as you can regularly get good value on those teams for a while before the market actually catches up on them. Almeria in the Spanish Segunda are a great example of this, they started the season poorly and were struggling for a bit, yet I could see they were improving on the pitch but their results didn’t reflect this. I got on them at the right time and had four or five nice wins backing Almeria before the prices corrected.
I really enjoy looking at a game where the market says goals will be low but can come up with plenty of reasons against this. Some teams score regularly away but maybe not at home and sometimes this isn’t highlighted. Since I now focus on a few leagues only, it allows me to apply these factors better than if I had a much wider remit.
Bet Type: What about the type of bets and markets you focus on and why. What can members look to expect to receive from you?
I now focus solely on single bets that you can take on Betfair or any other exchange. These are in the match odds markets, over/under goals, Goal Line and Asian Handicap markets. When I started out I used to advise occasional doubles but I am now happier using the Asian lines more and more. I know a few top tipsters show a good edge on doubles but I just found as I am restricted with most bookies, so Betfair gives me more scope and its obviously easier to get my bets on. All my results include a 2% commission deduction on profitable bets so my expertise
Bet Placement: What bookmaker or exchange accounts do you need to follow your tips in with?
I now advise all my bets using the odds available on Betfair, so assuming you have an account with them you will easily be able to follow me in on all my bets. I find the exchanges best as I advise in high liquidity markets where getting on should not be a problem and the odds are generally competitive.
Realistic aims: What kind of profit and ROI figure can someone realistically expect if following your bets?
Again, at the time of writing, I have now shown a profit of over 30 points at 4% ROI on nearly 750 bets. I had a really poor period after football resumed in May 2019, post covid-19 and dropped 15 points over two months. In hindsight I should have staked lower and perhaps waited for teams to settle in to football without crowds but this was a unique, challenging situation. Even despite this losing run, both 2019 and 2020 have made a good profit and similar ROI figure of 4%.
Over the 2 years my service was free in 2019 and 2020, it evolved and by now using goal lines and Asian Handicaps more it should reduce variance over the long term. While it is inevitable we will get losing runs I aim to keep them at a more manageable level to what we saw in the past.
Anyone following me in will need to take a long term approach to get the most out of it. I know we hear this regularly but it is very important.
My aim for 2021 will be to get closer to a 5% ROI . I think a full season of Irish bets and with a wider use of Asian Lines / Handicaps I can get close to this.
I would say the positives of following my service would be that a 40 – 50pt betting bank is sufficient. All of my bets are easy to place as once you have a Betfair account you are good to go. You won’t have to worry about restrictions and I provide a full preview for each bet I advise so you can see exactly why I am backing each selection.
Service Nuts & Bolts
Here is how the service works:
Bet Notifications Via Email: As a subscriber to The Poacher you will get all bets notified by email. All bets are supplied several hours ahead of a game starting to ensure you have enough time to get on.
Bet Timing: Most emails are sent late morning or early afternoon. Again, always several hours before a game starts.
Bet Type: Bets are all single bets on football markets with enough liquidity on Betfair to ensure all members can place them.
Number of Bets: The service averages around 30 to 40 bets in a current average month. Sometimes more, sometimes less – it all depends on the quantity of value betting opportunities and the fixture list.
Staking: Stakes range from 0.5 point up to 1.5 point as a maximum bet. The majority of bets are for 1 point level stakes.
Betting Banks: We advocate the following points betting bank sizes:
Higher risk: 30 points betting bank
Moderate (advised): 40 points betting bank
Safe: 50 points betting bank
Simply choose the points betting bank size that suit your risk preferences.
How Quickly Can You Get Started? We aim to process all orders received within 1 working day, although usually we are able to process this much quicker than that.
30 Day Money Back Guarantee
You can also join The Poacher with the peace of mind of knowing that you have a 30-day anytime Money Back Guarantee.
This states that if at any point during your first 30 days with the service, you would like a refund, then simply request this via email to email@example.com and we will cancel your membership and send your subscription fee back to you – no questions asked.
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