Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Argentina vs Germany. Germany Draw No Bet @ 2.37 Bet Chronicle. +1.37.
2. Paraguay vs Spain: Paraguay +1 @ 2.03. Refund.

Excellent value calls on Germany and Paraguay inferred by the Castrol ratings.

Running total: +10.07 points from 28 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Uruguay vs Holland 

Uruguay: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86-> Best odds 3.9 Pinnacle Sports
Holland: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54-> Best odds 1.31 Bet Chronicle.

Holland should win this according to Castrol, but according to the ratings, the bookies are over estimating the Dutch and underestimating the Uruguayans. Although there’s value in it, I don’t fancy Uruguay to qualify. The +0.75 handicap pays 2.06. which is more likely over 90 minutes. I’m going to put half a point on that and cover a Holland walkover by backing Holland to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.03 with Pinnacle Sports for the other half point.

2. Spain vs Germany

Spain: 60% Chance -> Value odds: 1.67-> Best odds 1.89 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 40% Chance -> Value odds: 2.5-> Best odds 2.04 188 bet.

I was quite surprised when I saw the ratings for this match, although four out of the top rated players are Spanish. The value bet is on Spain at 1.89 with Bet Chronicle. This will certainly be a good test for the ratings. The Germans have the better form, but according to the ratings, the Spanish have the better players. Should be a fascinating match.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Holland vs Slovakia: Holland -1: Refund
2. Brazil vs Chile: Brazil -1. -1.
3. Paraguay vs Japan: Japan to qualify @ 2.65. -1, but great value bet.
4. Spain vs Portugal. No bet
5. Holland vs Brazil. Holland +0.5 1.98 SBObet +0.98. Excellent value call by Castrol ratings.
6. Uruguay vs Ghana: Uruguay to qualify @ 1.53. +0.53. Although a winning bet, Ghana clearly deserved to win this and I feel the ratings were way out here.

Running total: +8.7 points from 26 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for Saturday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Argentina vs Germany

Argentina : 52% Chance -> Value odds: 1.92-> Best odds 1.74 188 bet
Germany: 48% Chance -> Value odds: 2.08-> Best odds 2.25 Stan James

Argentina to shade it according to Castrol, but it could be a closer match than the odds compilers are pricing up. Germany’s best odds of 2.25 imply a 44% chance vs the 48% chance predicted by Castrol. Is that enough of an edge?

Germany +0.5 is 1.82 with SBObet and Germany Draw no bet is 2.37 with Bet Chronicle. The Draw No Bet seems to offer the best odds so that will go down as the value bet.

2. Paraguay vs Spain

Paraguay: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03-> Best odds 5.30 Bet Chronicle
Spain: 76% Chance -> Value odds: 1.31-> Best odds 1.21 Blue Sq.

No value in Spain at 1.21 according to Castrol ratings. The Paraguay +1 handicap is 2.03 seems more likely than Paraguay qualifying so that’s the value bet here.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

No joy yesterday. In retrospect I should have changed the tracking experiment and made it a no bet day. There really wasn’t much value in those odds and the bookies had things pretty tight. Still, the Holland -1 was a dodgy penalty in the 94th minute away from coming good.

Thankfully today we have one clear cut value bet, at least according to the ratings.

The Castrol ratings for Monday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Paraguay vs Japan

Paraguay: 53% Chance -> Value odds: 1.89-> Best odds 1.55
Japan: 47% Chance -> Value odds: 2.13-> Best odds 2.65 Bet Chronicle.

Japan have 47% chance of qualifying according to Castrol vs the best bookie odds of 2.65 which implies a 37% chance. Who’s right? We’ll find out in a few hours. Japan +0.5 is 1.92 while seems reasonable, but the value bet is Japan to qualify @ 2.65.

2. Spain vs Portugal

Spain: 63% Chance -> Value odds: 1.59 > Best odds 1.48
Portugal: 37% Chance -> Value odds: 2.70 -> Best odds 2.84

Spain should win this, but the value lies with Portugal according to Castrol. Portugal are given a 37% chance which still isn’t great with 2.84 representing a 35% probability. Value, but not enough for me, so I’ll skip this one for the tracking experiment. For the record, Spain are 2.11 for the win, Portugal 4.40 for the win over 90. Portugal +0.5 is 1.91 with 12 bet.

Before we get to today’s matches, here’s the scores on the doors so far:

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Final Group Games:

1. Portugal vs Brazil: Brazil @ 2.30 Various -1.00
2. North Korea vs Ivory Coast: Ivory Coast -1 @ 1.73 +0.73
3. Switzerland vs Honduras: Honduras/ Draw Double Chance @ 2.60 Unibet. +1.60
4. Chile vs Spain: Chile +1 @ 2.14 SBObet. Refund.

4th round:

1. Uruguay vs South Korea. Uruguay @ 1.44. +0.44
2. US vs Ghana: US @ 1.84 -1
3. England vs Germany: England @ 1.92 -1
4. Argentina vs Mexico: Mexico +1 @ 1.93 -1

Running total: 9.2 points from 20 points staked.

Not a great weekend for the ratings, but still up in the week of tracking. England’s rating was a fair bit out, though the bookies were also not prepared for it either, with the best odds of German going through being just 2.00, implying a 50% chance at best. US/ Ghana went down to the wire and Argentina/ Mexico was worth a value shout, though in retrospect the odds for the +1 handicap were rather tight given the Argie’s free scoring tendancies of late.

That’s the update, now lets continue the tracking experiment.

The Castrol ratings for Monday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Holland vs Slovakia

Holland: 86% Chance -> Value odds: 1.16 -> Best odds 1.20 Centrebet.
Slovakia: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.14-> Best odds 5.50 bet Chronicle

There’s value in betting on Holland to Qualify according to Castrol, but there’s not much juice in those odds. The 90 minute win pays 1.48 with Pinnacle, while the 90 minute -1 handicap is 1.87 with SBO bet. Technically Holland to qualify at 1.20 should be the value bet, but the -1 handicap seems more attractive given the domination expected.Fine margins though and it looks as though the bookies are largely in line with Castrol here. In reality this would probably be a no bet situation.

1. Brazil vs Chile

Brazil: 78% Chance -> Value odds: 1.28 -> Best odds 1.22 Centrebet.
Chile: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.54 -> Best odds 5.00 Boyle Sports.

Again, fine margins with bookies largely in line with Castrol here. Going by Castrol’s rating’s there may even be value in laying Brazil to qualify on betfair at 1.26 lay price. Small value though.

The Chile +1 handicap over 90 minutes @ 1.99 with 188 seems the closest to a value bet, but I’d want a bigger line than that against Brazil if I was betting with my own money. I’ve tracked the castrol ratings by betting on the side of the value though so to be consistent, I won’t skip this one, though don’t expect much. Chile +1 @ 1.99 188bet.

…..According to Castrol ratings.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

The Castrol ratings were in fine form during the group stages, now its time to see if the ratings can continue to spot the value in the knockout stages.

I’ll update the results from the last group stage matches and today’s US vs Ghana & Uruguay vs Korea games when I get chance.

The Castrol ratings for Sunday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1. England vs Germany

England: 54% Chance -> Value odds: 1.85 -> Best odds 1.92 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 46% Chance -> Value odds: 2.17-> Best odds 2.00 Victor Chandler/ Ladbrokes.

The odds are ‘to qualify’ which includes overtime and penalties. According to the ratings, England could just shade it, with the bookies agreeing, while still leaving the door open for a value bet on England at 1.92. Personally I’m not even going to consider betting on this match. There will be enough shouting at the telly as it is. However, for the tracking experiment, it’s England to qualify at 1.92.

2. Argentina vs Mexico

Argentina: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54 -> Best odds 1.25 Paddy Power
Mexico: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86 -> 4.50 Ladbrokes.

The match brings up an interesting value situation according to Castrol’s ratings. Argentina should go through, that much is clear, but going by the ratings, the bookies are over estimating Argentina’s potential domination slightly.

Favourites do have a very good record in the knockout stage though so rather than going for the shock Mexico victory (even though there’s value in it), it might be better to even things up with the handicap bet over 90 minutes. BetInternet go 1.93 on Mexico with the +1 handicap which might be the best way to play the match. This means you get your money back if Argentina win by just 1 goal.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment

Behind in posting today as the blog admin access was playing silly buggers

Value and % chance according to Castrol:

Uruguay V South Korea
UR: 71% – value 1.40
SK: 29% – value 3.45

Using the to qualify bet (including extra time and pens) it suggests a smidgen of value in Uruguay @ 1.44 Paddys.

In the other game we have USA against Ghana with the ratings pointing towards a clear USA bet.

USA: 60% – value 1.67
Ghana 40% – value 2.5

You can pick up the USA to qualify at 1.84 with Bet Chronicle