Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:
Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:
1. Uruguay vs Holland: 0.5 pt Uruguay +0.75 handicap & 0.5 pt Holland to score over 1.5 goals. +0.265
2. Spain vs Germany: Spain to qualify @ 1.89. +0.89
Castrol was absolutely spot on with the Spain game. The ratings picked out that Spain had the better players which out ranked Germany’s recent form. This match was a real test for the ratings and it came up trumps.
Running total: +11.23 points from 30 points staked.
The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.
Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties
Third/ Fourth Place Play Off.
1. Uruguay vs Germany
Uruguay: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 3.4
Germany: 62% Chance -> Value odds: 1.61-> Best odds 1.4
The Germans should win this, but the betting markets are underestimating the Uruguayans a touch with the best odds on Uruguay implying a 29% chance vs the 38% predicted by Castrol. I think it would be prudent to hedge bets again and back Uruguay with the +0.75 handicap at 1.94 with various bookies for 0.5 points and cover the Germany dominance with a bet on Germany to score over 1.75 goals (over 1.5 and over 2.0 goals) at 2.01 for 0.5 pt which is the dominant over/ under team goal line at Pinnacle sports.
1. Holland vs Spain
Holland: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32-> Best odds 2.60
Spain: 57% Chance -> Value odds: 1.75 -> Best odds 1.57
Spain to win says Castrol, but they make it a much closer match than the bookies odds at the moment. Not a huge amount of juice in the 2.60 price though with those odds implying a 38.5% chance vs Castrol’s 43% chance.
The Double chance on Holland (the +0.5 handicap) pays 1.80 with 12 bet and the Draw No Bet is 2.63 with Bet Chronicle.
Holland to Win at 2.60 with Centre bet is the value bet for the final, but I’m not betting on this personally. Quite tempted by Holland to score over o.5 and 1 goals (over 0.75 goals) with Pinnacle though.