England have a 54% chance of beating Germany

…..According to Castrol ratings.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

The Castrol ratings were in fine form during the group stages, now its time to see if the ratings can continue to spot the value in the knockout stages.

I’ll update the results from the last group stage matches and today’s US vs Ghana & Uruguay vs Korea games when I get chance.

The Castrol ratings for Sunday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1. England vs Germany

England: 54% Chance -> Value odds: 1.85 -> Best odds 1.92 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 46% Chance -> Value odds: 2.17-> Best odds 2.00 Victor Chandler/ Ladbrokes.

The odds are ‘to qualify’ which includes overtime and penalties. According to the ratings, England could just shade it, with the bookies agreeing, while still leaving the door open for a value bet on England at 1.92. Personally I’m not even going to consider betting on this match. There will be enough shouting at the telly as it is. However, for the tracking experiment, it’s England to qualify at 1.92.

2. Argentina vs Mexico

Argentina: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54 -> Best odds 1.25 Paddy Power
Mexico: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86 -> 4.50 Ladbrokes.

The match brings up an interesting value situation according to Castrol’s ratings. Argentina should go through, that much is clear, but going by the ratings, the bookies are over estimating Argentina’s potential domination slightly.

Favourites do have a very good record in the knockout stage though so rather than going for the shock Mexico victory (even though there’s value in it), it might be better to even things up with the handicap bet over 90 minutes. BetInternet go 1.93 on Mexico with the +1 handicap which might be the best way to play the match. This means you get your money back if Argentina win by just 1 goal.