Castrol Ratings for the Semi Final

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Argentina vs Germany. Germany Draw No Bet @ 2.37 Bet Chronicle. +1.37.
2. Paraguay vs Spain: Paraguay +1 @ 2.03. Refund.

Excellent value calls on Germany and Paraguay inferred by the Castrol ratings.

Running total: +10.07 points from 28 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Uruguay vs Holland 

Uruguay: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86-> Best odds 3.9 Pinnacle Sports
Holland: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54-> Best odds 1.31 Bet Chronicle.

Holland should win this according to Castrol, but according to the ratings, the bookies are over estimating the Dutch and underestimating the Uruguayans. Although there’s value in it, I don’t fancy Uruguay to qualify. The +0.75 handicap pays 2.06. which is more likely over 90 minutes. I’m going to put half a point on that and cover a Holland walkover by backing Holland to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.03 with Pinnacle Sports for the other half point.

2. Spain vs Germany

Spain: 60% Chance -> Value odds: 1.67-> Best odds 1.89 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 40% Chance -> Value odds: 2.5-> Best odds 2.04 188 bet.

I was quite surprised when I saw the ratings for this match, although four out of the top rated players are Spanish. The value bet is on Spain at 1.89 with Bet Chronicle. This will certainly be a good test for the ratings. The Germans have the better form, but according to the ratings, the Spanish have the better players. Should be a fascinating match.