Rugby World Cup Handicaps: Can the underdogs keep it up?

Posted on September 16, 2011 by Dan

In a previous post on the Rugby World Cup, we highlighted the following stat:

According to the Racing Post, in the last World Cup, there were 20 pool matches featuring handicaps of 30 points or more. Eight favourites covered the handicap while 12 fell short.

Or put another way, 12/20 underdogs beat their handicap. So far the 30+ handicaps are 6/7 in favour of the underdog, let’s see how the latest games fare.

Last game:

Samoa vs Namibia: Namibia +30.5 @ 2.19 12bet. Samoa by more than 30.5 -1.00

Upcoming Games:

Personally I feel we’ve had our luck with these handicaps and we may be giving the profits made as the bookies and major teams sharpen up.

Still, we’ll be tracking the performance of the 30 point handicaps for the rest of the tournament. Here are the upcoming games:

New Zealand vs Japan: Japan +54.50: 2.08 Pinnacle Sports.
England vs Georgia: Georgia +37.50: 1.91 Ladbrokes.
France vs Canada: Canada +31.50: 1.93 Pinnacle

There’s only one mid week handicap that qualifies, the bookies are waiting for team news before pricing up the weekend games.

Enjoy…

Rugby World Cup Betting: Underdogs beat the odds.

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Dan

In a previous post on the Rugby World Cup, we highlighted the following stat:

According to the Racing Post, in the last World Cup, there were 20 pool matches featuring handicaps of 30 points or more. Eight favourites covered the handicap while 12 fell short.

We highlighted all the 30 point handicaps, here’s how they performed:

New Zealand vs Tonga: Tonga +62.5 @ 1.94 Pinnacle Sports. Result….New Zealand by just 31. +0.94
Scotland vs Romania: Romania +35.5 @1.93 Pinnacle Sports. Scotland by 10. +0.93
Fiji vs Namibia: Namibia +30.5 @1.99 Pinnacle Sports. Fiji by 24. +0.95 Continue reading →

Champions League Value Bets: Can Anyone Beat Barca?

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Dan

In last year’s Champions League final, Barcelona gave Manchester United a lesson in how to play football. As good as United were, Barca were just untouchable.

As the 2011/2012 builds momentum, there is a lot of talk about how United have learned from that game at Wembley. But can they do it this time or are the Catalans just too strong?

Likely winner & value bets

To help us determine this, the guys at Dectech have calculated the % chance each team has of winning the Champions League this year. This will adjust as the season progresses, but right now, here are their predictions for the main teams and UK interests. We’ve also added the best bookie odds and whether these offer value.
Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Owen Gunning For Ascot

Posted on September 12, 2011 by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

This week Scott picks apart the action from Saturday and the horses to watch in the future including how Brown Panther who finished a strong 2^nd in the St Leger should be one to watch if stepped up further in trip Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Bunting Appeals In St Leger

Posted on September 9, 2011 by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

This week Scott picks apart the runners and riders in Saturdays St Leger, where he is looking beyond the 6/4 favourite Sea Moon and siding with Frankie Dettori’s mount Blue Bunting. He also unveils the horse to watch mentioned in Mondays column, which runs at Chester on the weekend and if drawn well, is expected to do the business. Continue reading →

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings Round Up

Posted on September 8, 2011 by Dan

For the last 10 days, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

See Monday’s post here:

Update:

Tuesday’s value bets were not as successful as the previous weekends to put it mildly with a lack of under dog victories hurting the record. We covered the draw well enough though and the damage could have been a lot worse if the ratings hadn’t picked out the value here as well.

Still, things could be a lot worse with the record from the current campaign as follows:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Our bets:

Not much luck with the highlighted bets so far with the wrong handicap choice hurting us again. This time we should have gone with the Double Chance instead of the Draw No bet.

Latvia vs Greece: Latvia Draw No Bet @ 3.75 Bet 365. Draw. Stake Returned.
Malta vs Georgia: Malta Draw No Bet @ 3.65 Expekt. Draw Stake Returned.
Denmark vs Norway: Norway Draw No Bet @ 3.00 William Hill. Home Win, Loss.

The next Euro 2012 games are in October, so next up for the Castrol ratings/ Fink Tank test will be Champions League fixtures next week.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club.

Grab This Tasty Special Offer For The Rugby World Cup

Posted on September 8, 2011 by Dan

The rugby world cup kicks off tomorrow with the hosts and tournament favourites, New Zealand taking on the friendly islands of Tonga (Population 100,000) in the opening game.

Picking the winner essentially comes down to whether you think New Zealand have the bottle to do it this time. Currently trading at 1.67 ish, the All Blacks are certainly the red hot favourites, but they don’t have a track record of converting ability into success. Since winning the world cup in 1987, they have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in subsequent tournaments.

It would be nice to see New Zealand have something to celebrate this year after the devastation caused by the Christchurch earthquake, but ultimately only the All Blacks themselves know if the All Blacks can do it this time.

Paddy Power Treble The Odds:

If you do want to have a punt on the Rugby World Cup, Paddy Power (08000 565 265) have a very special offer for new customers Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Just Out Of Breath!

Posted on September 6, 2011 by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

This week Scott picks apart the action from Saturday’s Sprint Cup at Haydock including how his 7/1 each way shot fared in a photo finish. He also highlights some of the weekend’s other horses of note, including a juvenile requiring further and one to watch if upped in trip next time out. Continue reading →

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol's ratings

Posted on September 5, 2011 by Dan

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading →

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol’s ratings