In a previous post on the Rugby World Cup, we highlighted the following stat:
According to the Racing Post, in the last World Cup, there were 20 pool matches featuring handicaps of 30 points or more. Eight favourites covered the handicap while 12 fell short.
Or put another way, 12/20 underdogs beat their handicap. Therefore we decided to keep track of the big handicap games for the 2011 World Cup. A 30.50 or greater handicap means that the underdog get a 31 point head start for the game. If they lose by less than this, the bet is a winner.
English fans expected a cricket score against Georgia, instead they got a tight physical game with Georgia losing by just 31, beating the 38 point handicap.
The story so far:
The 30+ handicaps are beating the odds with 8/10 underdogs beating the handicap. let’s see how the latest games fare.
- New Zealand vs Japan: Japan +54.50: 2.08 Pinnacle Sports. NZ by more than 55 points. -1.00
- England vs Georgia: Georgia +37.50: 1.91 Ladbrokes. England by less than 38 points +0.91
- France vs Canada: Canada +31.50: 1.93 Pinnacle. France by less than 32 points +0.93
Personally I feel we’ve had our luck with these handicaps and we may be giving the profits made as the bookies and major teams sharpen up.
Still, we’ll be tracking the performance of the 30 point handicaps for the rest of the tournament. Here are the upcoming games:
Annoyingly, bookies have not priced up the weekend’s handicaps properly yet. For brevity I’ll list all the likely games here and fill in the odds when the bookies price up.
- South Africa vs Namibia: Namibia +59.50 points @ 2.07 Bet Chronicle.
- Australia vs USA: USA +59.50 points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes
- England vs Romania: Romania +43.50 @ 1.93 Pinnacle
- Ireland vs Russia: Russia+
Of these, the USA and Romania look more likely to beat the handicap, but we shall see.