free football tips

The Niche Bets That Turned £1000 into £1714.50 In Just Over 2 Months

Posted on by Mike

One of the best ways to get one over on the bookmaker, is to take them on in events they know precious little about, or simply don’t have the time to research properly.

We call this ‘niche betting’, whereby you develop more expertise in a very specific area of betting – and in doing so, are able to spot when the bookies prices are wrong.

One such proven niche betting expert is a chap who goes by the name of Skeeve, who despite hailing from Eastern Europe – is now a renowned expert on non-league football in England.

It may sound bizarre that someone so far away can be clued up on the fact Braintree are missing a key midfielder or that Chelmsford’s on-loan star is suspended due a sending off in the Hampshire Senior Cup, but it’s true. Continue reading →

Are Man United more dangerous after a shock defeat?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

Manchester United didn’t just lose against Man City, they were demolished. They suffered their worst home defeat last weekend since the formation of the Premier League, and in the process drifted out to 2/1 second-favourites to be lifting the trophy in May.

A popular theory is that this makes United more dangerous to their opponents in their next game because they are looking to avenge their loss.

But is this true?

We have examined the data across Europe’s Big 5 leagues to find out if there are any trends that might point to an instant return to form for United this weekend against Everton. Continue reading →

How to spot when teams are over-performing

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover.  Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading →

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Clubcould help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Clubcould help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

Here are the latest value bets according to the latest Fink Tank Ratings. You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory. Click on the image below for the weekend’s qualifiers

Qualifying bets for the fink tank rating test

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

Here are the latest value bets according to the latest Fink Tank Ratings. You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory. Click on the image below for the weekend’s qualifiers

Qualifying bets for the fink tank rating test

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

Mike’s Football Bets 3rd February

Posted on by Mike

I want to get my bets in early this weekend as I am concerned that my best value bets often seem to diminish in price over time, which is a pattern I have spotted of late.

Value wise, the overs market in the game between the Hammers and the Brummies looks to be fantastic.  Consider that in the past 2 seasons, West Hams home games have gone overs 60% and Birmingham’s away games 63%, you would think the odds would reflect that. Not so as you can get 2.12 from Pinnacle which equates the chance of 3 or more goals as 47.16%, when the stats say differently. Logically as well West Ham have a leaky defence and Birmingham nowhere near as solid as last year either.

Man City are also under-rated against West Brom, who are another side struggling at the back and I can’t see them coping with the movement from Silva, Tevez and Dzeko. I expect an easy home win here and the 1.79 from 12Bet on City to overcome the -1 Asian Handicap jumps out.

As Harry Redknapp love to say, Spurs are down to the ‘bare bones’ and it’s no surprise to see them struggle creatively midweek with the likes of Bale, Modric and Pienaar all out. This season both Spurs at home and Bolton away have gone under 2.5 goals in 67% of games and with Bolton’s strikers also far from prolific recently, I think the odds of 2.05 on less than 3 goals is too big.

One team that doesn’t struggle to score is Arsenal and they have gone overs 58% of the time away from home, whereas Newcastle have a 67% record at St James Park. This makes sense as with 50,000 Geordies willing you on, they have to attack teams and I expect Arsenal to find plenty of space to exploit. The 1.90 on over 2.5 goals is my final main bet.

Elsewhere, 2 shortlist bets and I am taking Villa to continue their recent improvement against a Fulham side that will go for the draw so the -0.25 handicap offers some appeal here. Chelsea should also have far too much against a better looking Liverpool team, who will be really tested at the back against Torres, Drogba, Anelka et al. On there day these 3 will eat the likes of Kygriakos for breakfast and I fancy a home win here. Not great value in the odds so just a shortlist bet.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Birmingham. 2.12 Pinnacle
1 pt Man City -1 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 1.79 12Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Arsenal. 1.90 Pinnacle
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Spurs V Bolton. 2.05 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Aston Villa -0.25 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 1.77 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap V Liverpool. 1.78 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike