Its Easter Weekend and as usual a feast of football to get stuck into with for once a full Premier League betting card on offer.

Firstly a reflection on the last 2 bets which went against us, with both the games featuring Arsenal – Liverpool and Newcastle – Man Utd failing to witness 3 or more goals as hoped. It was especially galling in the scoreless draw at St James Park as there were no less than 30 shots between the sides.

This weekend you may look at my bets and think they lack imagination as it’s on a string of home teams to win but it is just the way the dice have fallen in terms of value. I must admit there isn’t a whole load of strong looking angles so just the 1 Main bet and 3 Shortlist bets to take in.

Of those home bets, Chelsea look to offer strong value to overcome a 1.75 Asian Handicap when they host a very poor West Ham team, who just don’t have the defensive personnel or wherewithal to keep out Carlo Ancelotti’s men. In half of their home games this season, Chelsea have won by 2 goals or more and the Hammers have been shipping goals of late with the only notable result the away team have picked up of note this season – the 0-0 draw at Spurs. That day only a herculean effort by Hammers custodian Robert Green earnt his side a barely deserved point.  I can’t see him repeating these efforts against a resurgent Didier Drogba and Florent Malouda – maybe even Torres will score!

Drilling down into my Shortlist bets, I fancy both Man Utd and Liverpool to overcome -1 Handicaps at home to Everton and Birmingham respectively. The United bet is similar to the one advised successfully against Fulham a fortnight ago and they have an outstanding home record, especially at home to the Toffees who roll over and have their tummy tickled whenever they go to Old Trafford. Everton have been in good recent form winning 6 of their last 9 games but then they have mostly been against bottom half sides – matches they would generally expect to win.

Local rivals Liverpool have also been impressive at home in general despite well known blips under Roy Hodgson earlier in the season. Birmingham will surely go for a point and one concern is if they are able to put the home team’s youthful backline under aerial and physical pressure and snatch a goal. I do expect the Reds to have too much though and a comfortable win by at least a goal makes the AH line at 1.82 look value.

Finally onto the enigma that is Sunderland who just a few months ago would have been a heck of a lot shorter than 2.15 to beat Wigan at home. This to me looks to be a reaction to short-term form and I do subscribe to the notion that form is temporary, class is permanent. With three points at home to Wigan effectively securing the Black Cats Premier League status for another season, I fancy this as value.

Main Bets
1 pt Chelsea (-1.75 Asian Handicap) V West Ham. 1.83 Canbet/Pinnacle/SBObet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man Utd (-1 Asian Handicap) V Everton. 1.84 10bet/188bet/12bet
1 pt Liverpool (-1 Asian Handicap) V Birmingham. 1.82 Ladbrokes
1 pt Sunderland to beat Wigan. 2.15 William Hill

It seems a long while since we had any midweek Premier League action of note to get stuck into and the footballing gods are shining on us in the next couple of days with a few tasty fixtures to get amongst.

First of all there is the must win game down at White Hart Lane where Spurs host fierce rivals Arsenal in what should be a cracking contest for the neutral. Both teams need 3 pts for differing reasons, so it should be fairly attacking game, especially considering the current North London based goalkeeping black hole. Both sides have about 8 goalies on their books, yet they would struggle to make one decent composite between them!

Betting wise in this game, despite the stats indicating that the under 2.5 goals in this game looks value, I have passed upon it bearing in mind the likely gung-ho nature here. You can get 2.20 with 188bet pre kick-off but my advice is to look to the in-play markets instead for good trading options.

I have picked out one strong value bet, but this time in the over 2.5 goals market in the game featuring Newcastle and Man Utd, where the away team will be chomping at the bit to get the FA Cup Semi defeat out of their system. United have their talisman Rooney back, who will have fond memories of this ground having stuck a brace past the Geordies last time up at St James Park. 188Bet are offering odds of 1.93 on over 2.5 goals, which equates to a 51.81% chance of occurring according to them. The stats tell a different picture with Newcastle’s home games having seen 59 goals in 15 games and United on the road seeing 51 goals in their 15 matches. That makes 30 games in total, in which both sides have kept just 6 clean sheets between them and with Steve Harper and Rio Ferdinand doubtful, each team may will be missing a key part of their back 5. I make the percentage chance of 3 goals or more about a 60%+ chance so some stonking value here to get stuck into.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Man Utd. 1.93 188bet

We enjoyed a bumper return last weekend with all 3 Main bets winning to really boost the seasonal figures as we enter the last month or so of action. There are only 6 games to choose from in the Premier League this weekend with the FA Cup Semi-Finals at Wembley and there isn’t a huge amount of value out there as far as I can see. I have just one Main and one Shortlist bet for this weekend as so many of the teams playing are inconsistent, injury-prone or just priced up pretty well by the bookmakers.

My one main bet is down at the Emirates this Sunday where Arsenal host Liverpool in game likely to be over-shadowed by the Bolton – Stoke City fixture the same day (not a statement I often expect to write). I think the bookies have under-estimated the chances of goals here and the 1.95 on over 2.5 goals looks to be a shade too big judging by the evidence (Even the next best odds of 1.91 still look far too big). We all know that Arsenal haven’t been firing of late but they have still seen 42 goals in their 15 home games and gone past the overs mark 56% of the time. We also have similar stats for Liverpool and looking at the relatively soft defence for both sides I think we should see goals. Whether its Lehmann or Almunia in nets for the Gunners, Suarez, Carroll et al will test them a lot more than Blackpool did, whilst Liverpool at the back have injuries and are missing a number of key defenders. Kenny Dalglish has not been able to settle on a winning away formula for his new charges and defeats away at WBA and West Ham lately reflect that.

My only shortlist bet is again in the over 2.5 goals market and features a favoured team of mine for this bet – West Ham who are far from convincing defensively as they have proven in recent weeks. The bookies are slowly cottoning on but still odds of 1.86 on over 2.5 goals in their home game against Villa looks too high for me. Both these teams have seen over 3 goals on average per game home and away respectively and I make the chance of this bet greater than then 53.7% chance that odds of 1.86 implies.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Arsenal V Liverpool. 1.95 Betsson. Next best 1.91 Pinnacle/Canbet/188bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Aston Villa. 1.86 Pinnacle/12Bet

It’s entering that time of the season for separating the men from the boys and we are starting to see some of the usual suspects show their true colours. Man Utd always seem to peak around this time and never know when they are beat when it matters (remember Macheda vs. Villa), in total contrast to the likes of Arsenal who always wilt at the slightest inkling of pressure.

That’s just one reason why I am backing a Rooney-less Man Utd this weekend to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap at home against Fulham. Utd quite simply are awesome at home in the league and in the last 2 seasons have played 33, won 29, drawn 2 and lost just once at Old Trafford. Fulham in contrast have lost 17 out of their last 33 away games, including to all of the top 4 and 8 out of the top 10 this season. In terms of margin of victory, Utd have won by 2 or more goals in 19 out of those 29 victories and mostly against bottom half sides (such as Fulham). Team wise – United have the usually rock solid Vidic and Ferdinand partnership back and Continue reading →

Finally back with Premier League action after the inescapably dull International friendlies in midweek, where for once I find myself agreeing with Sir Alex that they should be scrapped all together. If I was a bookie I would love these games as they are so hard to call and uncompetitive yet high profile – perfect for helping build that bookmaker pension fund.

Thankfully though, there seems to be a whole host of good value bets on offer this weekend, starting down at Upton Park where I think the 1.92 about 3 or more goals looks to worth an interest. West Ham’s home games for the past 2 seasons have gone overs roughly 62% of the time, whilst United away have seen overs in 73% this season (47% last). I am far from convinced about the Hammers defence and I fear they will struggle to cope with the attacking thrust down the flanks with Antonio Valencia back fit to join Nani out wide. Odds of 1.92 suggest the chance of overs is 52%, whereas I make it closer to 60%.

Wigan have a reputation for 2 things – eating pies and low scoring games but yet they are 11^th in the table for goals scored and conceded this season and in their home games against the top 4 have let in 14 and scored only 2 (no idea where they stand in the pie consumption league table!). They face Spurs who themselves have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of games away this year and I make the chances of over 2.5 goals around 55%, whereas the bookies have priced this up at 2.10 – a percentage chance of just 47.6%.

There is evidence to suggest that Stuart Holden was the most effective midfielder in the Premier League this season and Bolton are certainly going to miss him after his horror injury against Man Utd last time out. I have fancied the trotters all season long in a number of bets but I think they will have their work cut out without Holden away at Birmingham who I am backing with an 0 Asian Handicap at 1.83. Bolton have actually only won 2 away games all season, whereas Birmingham have lost only 4 in total at home. I make the home win % chance considerably higher than the away win % chance, so with a draw returning our money and decent odds, some value here.

The bookies have cottoned on to the fact that Blackpool’s games will always feature lots of goals under Holloway and as such there is next to no value in the over markets these days. Games involving the Tangerines have seen 105 goals this season, compared to just the 66 involving Fulham, who they travel to face this weekend. We should see a very contrasting game here with Fulham’s rigid 4-4-2 up against Blackpools 4-3-3 deriative and I fancy the away team with a +1 Asian Handicap at 2.04. Fulham have won just 3 out of 11 games at home by more than 1 goal, whereas Blackpool despite their gung-ho approach have lost just 3 out of 13 by more than 1 goal against non top 5 sides.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92 Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves.  1.96 Pinnacle/12bet

*All odds correct at time of release on blog yesterday.

Finally back with Premier League action after the inescapably dull International friendlies in midweek, where for once I find myself agreeing with Sir Alex that they should be scrapped all together. If I was a bookie I would love these games as they are so hard to call and uncompetitive yet high profile – perfect for helping build that bookmaker pension fund.

Thankfully though, there seems to be a whole host of good value bets on offer this weekend, starting down at Upton Park where I think the 1.92 about 3 or more goals looks to worth an interest. West Ham’s home games for the past 2 seasons have gone overs roughly 62% of the time, whilst United away have seen overs in 73% this season (47% last). I am far from convinced about the Hammers defence and I fear they will struggle to cope with the attacking thrust down the flanks with Antonio Valencia back fit to join Nani out wide. Odds of 1.92 suggest the chance of overs is 52%, whereas I make it closer to 60%.

Wigan have a reputation for 2 things – eating pies and low scoring games but yet they are 11^th in the table for goals scored and conceded this season and in their home games against the top 4 have let in 14 and scored only 2 (no idea where they stand in the pie consumption league table!). They face Spurs who themselves have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of games away this year and I make the chances of over 2.5 goals around 55%, whereas the bookies have priced this up at 2.10 – a percentage chance of just 47.6%.

There is evidence to suggest that Stuart Holden was the most effective midfielder in the Premier League this season and Bolton are certainly going to miss him after his horror injury against Man Utd last time out. I have fancied the trotters all season long in a number of bets but I think they will have their work cut out without Holden away at Birmingham who I am backing with an 0 Asian Handicap at 1.83. Bolton have actually only won 2 away games all season, whereas Birmingham have lost only 4 in total at home. I make the home win % chance considerably higher than the away win % chance, so with a draw returning our money and decent odds, some value here.

The bookies have cottoned on to the fact that Blackpool’s games will always feature lots of goals under Holloway and as such there is next to no value in the over markets these days. Games involving the Tangerines have seen 105 goals this season, compared to just the 66 involving Fulham, who they travel to face this weekend. We should see a very contrasting game here with Fulham’s rigid 4-4-2 up against Blackpools 4-3-3 deriative and I fancy the away team with a +1 Asian Handicap at 2.04. Fulham have won just 3 out of 11 games at home by more than 1 goal, whereas Blackpool despite their gung-ho approach have lost just 3 out of 13 by more than 1 goal against non top 5 sides.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92 Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves.  1.96 Pinnacle/12bet

*All odds correct at time of release on blog yesterday.