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Mike’s Football Bets – Seasonal Wrap

Posted on by Mike

A bit late this but better late than never…

Well that’s it for another season in the English Premier League, in what has been one of the most competitive leagues I can remember for a long-time. Man Utd ended up champions by 9 points despite having one of the worst away records of any title winning team and only 10 pts separated Fulham in 8th and Blackpool down in 19th. There are a lot of very similar sides strength wise sitting in mid-table and the gap between the top 4/5 and the rest appears to have been reigned in somewhat as well.

As per my own stats, I managed to make a profit of 4.96 pts from the 117.5 pts staked at a Return on Investment of 4.23%, which is I must admit was below my expectations for the season. I do wonder though that after such a tough season like we have just seen I shouldn’t be too hard on myself, especially as a number of my peers in the top division have also struggled. Sometimes we are at the behest of some very fine margins between profit and loss – for example had Wolves gone down or had there been a third goal in the game between Liverpool and Spurs last week, the final figures would be a lot more positive.

Seasonal Record

Below you can find the breakdown of performance dating back to the 2009/10 season, when I began advising bets in October 2009. The ROC refers to Return on Capital, which is the percentage growth of profit in relation to my advised betting bank of 25 pts.


The full spreadsheet of results can be downloaded here.

I do hope to return again next season and continue to build upon the promise of the first 2 seasons advising bets in the EPL, thanks for all your support in 2010/11!

If you have any questions, do drop me a line on either the members forum or via mike@smartbettingclub.com.


Mikes Football Bets 20th May

Posted on by Mike

Last week summed up how difficult it can be at this time of the year and as such I am drawing a line under all Main and Shortlist bets for the season.

Instead my focus is on the Ante-post portfolio, which could either way this weekend depending on so many different outcomes. What we do need is Stoke to finish in the top ten and if possible Wolves and Wigan to go down!

I have just one extra bet for the Ante-post and that is on Newcastle to beat West Brom at 2.11. This is for those of you who backed my early season bet on the Baggies to be the top newcomer for 0.5 pt at 9/4. The two teams face each other at St James Park so a 0.5 pt bet on the home team should they win, will ensure a profit whatever the outcome. Naturally only take this bet if you took the West Brom top newcomer one earlier this season.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Antepost Bet
0.5 pt Newcastle to beat West Brom. 2.11 Canbet/SBOBet

 

Mikes Football Bets 14th May

Posted on by Mike

A little later with my bets for this weekend as I have been on a mini-break, which has given me lots of time to mull over all the best options for the penultimate football weekend of the season.

Once again I am keeping my powder relatively dry with 3 shortlist bets and just the 1 main bet in the match between Liverpool and Spurs where I expect goals. The away team have to attack and Liverpool have been irresistible in recent months so the 1.91 on over 2.5 goals looks worthy of a 1pt stake.

The other 3 shortlist bets may well have qualified as main bets in a normal part of the season but with question marks over motivation for some teams and the often bizarre results we can get in May, its wise to keep things tight here.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Main Bets
1 pt Liverpool V Spurs. Over 2.5 goals. 1.91 Stan James

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland (+0 Asian Handicap) V Man City. 2.06 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea (-1.75 Asian Handicap) V Newcastle. 1.91 Stan James
1 pt Birmingham (-0.25 Asian Handicap) V Fulham. 1.96 Pinnacle

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

Posted on by Dan

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Not a bad week last week with Everton & Newcastle nice value picks. Stoke beating Arsenal was the icing on the cake. Season’s total stands at new equity high of 40.22, with an ROI of 14%. Not bad at all.

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

 

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

Posted on by Dan

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Not a bad week last week with Everton & Newcastle nice value picks. Stoke beating Arsenal was the icing on the cake. Season’s total stands at new equity high of 40.22, with an ROI of 14%. Not bad at all.

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

 

Mikes Football Bets 5th May

Posted on by Mike

This weekend’s fixtures look incredibly tricky with so many different angles to consider, whether it be teams happy to play out a draw or sides with nothing to play for against those fighting relegation. Second guessing a lot of these games is tough as often form, statistics and worst of all – logic goes out the window. With this in mind I am just settling on a few shortlist bets as I have concerns over each for various different reasons. They each to my mind represent value but knowing the motivations and concerns for each team makes it very hard to lump on with big stakes!

Aside from these bets, it will be fascinating to see how the Ante-post line up goes because as it stands we are showing 4.13 pts profit from the 9 pts staked in this section at the moment. A number of bets are touch and go however, such as the 0.5 pt on West Brom to be top newcomer advised at 9/4. Those of you who prefer to lock in profit, may well want to take some of the 6/5 on Newcastle to be top newcomer with VCbet. It will be between the two of them for this honour, although after much consideration I will be holding firm and not trading this just in for now.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Main Bets
None

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Fulham (+0.25 Asian Handicap) V Liverpool. 1.78 Ladbrokes
1 pt Everton (+0 Asian Handicap) V Man City. 2.09 12Bet
1 pt Wolves V West Brom. Over 2.5 goals. 1.88 12Bet

Mikes Football Bets 29th April

Posted on by Mike

Only a brief message today, but I have found 5 bets, which I feel offer value for this weekend’s action.

Bolton are the first main bet and although a bit Jekyll and Hyde lately, I feel are under-valued away at a Blackburn side in free-fall who are ridiculously short at 2.10 to win. My Liverpool bet is similar to the winning one last Saturday against Birmingham and with Newcastle safe, this to me looks an easy home win for the revitalised Merseysiders. I don’t rate Alan Pardew one bit and Liverpool’s home form is extremely solid, with Suarez really catching the eye. The final main bet is pretty straightforward and looking for at least 3, if not 4 goals in the Blackpool – Stoke City game. The Tangerines are going to have to go for a win here and the goals stats for both teams at home and on the road suggest the 2.06 from Ladbrokes is very generous.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+0.5 Asian Handicap) V Blackburn. 1.92 188bet/12bet
1 pt Blackpool V Stoke City. Over 2.75 goals. 2.06 Ladbrokes
1 pt Liverpool (-1 Asian Handicap) V Newcastle. 1.90 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland (0 Asian Handicap) V Fulham. 1.87 Pinnacle
1 pt West Brom V Aston Villa. Over 2.5 goals. 1.88 Pinnacle

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Clubcould help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Clubcould help you.

Mikes Football Bets 22nd April

Posted on by Mike

Its Easter Weekend and as usual a feast of football to get stuck into with for once a full Premier League betting card on offer.

Firstly a reflection on the last 2 bets which went against us, with both the games featuring Arsenal – Liverpool and Newcastle – Man Utd failing to witness 3 or more goals as hoped. It was especially galling in the scoreless draw at St James Park as there were no less than 30 shots between the sides.

This weekend you may look at my bets and think they lack imagination as it’s on a string of home teams to win but it is just the way the dice have fallen in terms of value. I must admit there isn’t a whole load of strong looking angles so just the 1 Main bet and 3 Shortlist bets to take in.

Of those home bets, Chelsea look to offer strong value to overcome a 1.75 Asian Handicap when they host a very poor West Ham team, who just don’t have the defensive personnel or wherewithal to keep out Carlo Ancelotti’s men. In half of their home games this season, Chelsea have won by 2 goals or more and the Hammers have been shipping goals of late with the only notable result the away team have picked up of note this season – the 0-0 draw at Spurs. That day only a herculean effort by Hammers custodian Robert Green earnt his side a barely deserved point.  I can’t see him repeating these efforts against a resurgent Didier Drogba and Florent Malouda – maybe even Torres will score!

Drilling down into my Shortlist bets, I fancy both Man Utd and Liverpool to overcome -1 Handicaps at home to Everton and Birmingham respectively. The United bet is similar to the one advised successfully against Fulham a fortnight ago and they have an outstanding home record, especially at home to the Toffees who roll over and have their tummy tickled whenever they go to Old Trafford. Everton have been in good recent form winning 6 of their last 9 games but then they have mostly been against bottom half sides – matches they would generally expect to win.

Local rivals Liverpool have also been impressive at home in general despite well known blips under Roy Hodgson earlier in the season. Birmingham will surely go for a point and one concern is if they are able to put the home team’s youthful backline under aerial and physical pressure and snatch a goal. I do expect the Reds to have too much though and a comfortable win by at least a goal makes the AH line at 1.82 look value.

Finally onto the enigma that is Sunderland who just a few months ago would have been a heck of a lot shorter than 2.15 to beat Wigan at home. This to me looks to be a reaction to short-term form and I do subscribe to the notion that form is temporary, class is permanent. With three points at home to Wigan effectively securing the Black Cats Premier League status for another season, I fancy this as value.

Main Bets
1 pt Chelsea (-1.75 Asian Handicap) V West Ham. 1.83 Canbet/Pinnacle/SBObet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man Utd (-1 Asian Handicap) V Everton. 1.84 10bet/188bet/12bet
1 pt Liverpool (-1 Asian Handicap) V Birmingham. 1.82 Ladbrokes
1 pt Sunderland to beat Wigan. 2.15 William Hill