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Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Why Liechtenstein offer value against the Scots

Posted on by Dan

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

26 bets
26 points staked
+4.24 points
+16.31% ROI.

Today’s matches: 

First here’s the % chances given to the UK’s home nations by the Castrol ratings:

Montenegro vs England: England 57% chance (No value).
Liechtenstein vs Scotland: Scotland 65% chance (No value).
Wales vs Switzerland: Wales 32% chance (Value).
Nothern Ireland vs Estonia: Nortern Ireland 47% chance (No value).
Andorra vs Ireland (Not UK of course, but lots of interest here as well):  Ireland 88% chance. (No Value). Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Rebellious Choice At HQ

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

This week it’s all eyes on Headquarters as Newmarket plays host to some top notch group racing action, where Scott has highlighted plenty of value. Strong fancies include Bronterre, one of his recent horses to follow in the Dewhurst at 7/2, whilst in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes he likes the look of the low-key Rebellious Guest  at a double figure price. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Dream Victory In Arc

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

This week, Scott unpacks all the action from Paris on Sunday, where the German 3 year old Danedream showed a fine turn of pace to take l’Arc de Triomphe in glorious sunshine. It was also a great weekend for those of you following his horses to follow list, which highlighted a 17/2 winner, Pastoral Player, who romped home at Ascot on Saturday.  Check out Scott’s latest list and the two new inclusions from the weekend to watch out for.

German filly Danedream continued the tremendous run of form of three-year old’s this season by winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Danedream had been granted a generous draw from box two and used her advantage well, winning in a course record time. She had five comfortable lengths to spare at the line over outsider Shareta, with Snow Fairy and So You Think third and fourth. It was a shock result as despite winning the Italian Oaks her form suggested she had to improve significantly to take the Arc. Displaying a super-charged burst of acceleration, Danedream won the race in authoritative fashion to provide a massive boost for German racing. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Follow Fallon In The Arc

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

This week Scott pores over the main contenders for l’Arc de Triomphe, which is expected to be run in rare October sunshine, making the ground a major factor for weighing up the best bets. Scott has some firm views on why three year olds are the ones to watch in Paris and he has an each way bet to nothing for you to follow in. Continue reading →

Champions League Value Bets: Is there value in an under strength Man U?

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Bayern Munich vs Man City: Man City 21.90% Chance. Value with City.
  • Man U v Basel: Man U 89.60% chance. Small value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Olympiakos: Arsenal 72% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Valencia v Chelsea: Chelsea 38.75% chance. No value with Chelsea. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Princely Reward at 40/1

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

On Friday, Scott labelled this weekend’s feature race – the Cambridgeshire as a ‘fiendishly difficult puzzle’ and so it proved with an unexpected 40/1 winner, which was so unfancied, he wasn’t even backed by his professional gambling owners!

Scott unpacks both that race and also some of the other highlights of the weekend past, with the previously highlighted ‘Lexington Bay’ obliging at 12/1 at Haydock and an 11 strong list of horses to follow, based upon his own recent race watching analysis. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Questioning Is The Answer

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

This week Scott is off to racing HQ where he casts his keen eye over all the main runners and riders in the punting minefield that is the Cambridgeshire. Scott sees value with one of John Gosden’s runners, who in racing without an expected 10lb penalty is expected to go very close at a double figure price. Continue reading →

Rugby World Cup Betting: Will England put on a cricket score?

Posted on by Dan

In a previous post on the Rugby World Cup, we highlighted the following stat:

According to the Racing Post, in the last World Cup, there were 20 pool matches featuring handicaps of 30 points or more. Eight favourites covered the handicap while 12 fell short. 

Or put another way, 12/20 underdogs beat their handicap. Therefore we decided to keep track of the big handicap games for the 2011 World Cup. A 30.50 or greater handicap means that the underdog get a 31 point head start for the game. If they lose by less than this, the bet is a winner. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Deacon To Give Punters The Blues

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

This week Scott discusses Saturday’s main feature race – the Ayr Gold Cup, where he likes the look of Pastoral Player, who finished strongly and would be one to watch in similar soft conditions. Deacon Blues was another highlight of the weekend in Dubai and looks set to justify favouritism in the Qipco British Champion Sprint Stakes at Ascot next month.

Scott’s main tip of the weekend – Colonel Mak finished a credible 4th for each way backers at 16/1, whilst his other strong mention, Caspar Netscher obliged at 15/8. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Return Of The Mak

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

This week Scott picks goes North of the border and pulls apart all the main contenders for the Ayr Gold Cup, with his preference for the 14/1 shot – Colonel Mak.

This weekend witnesses a blitz of valuable races with the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes and Group 3 World Trophy taking place at Newbury while a £200,000 pot is up for grabs in the Tattersalls Millions Median Auction Trophy at Newmarket. Continue reading →