Football Betting

The Niche Bets That Turned £1000 into £1714.50 In Just Over 2 Months

Posted on by Mike

One of the best ways to get one over on the bookmaker, is to take them on in events they know precious little about, or simply don’t have the time to research properly.

We call this ‘niche betting’, whereby you develop more expertise in a very specific area of betting – and in doing so, are able to spot when the bookies prices are wrong.

One such proven niche betting expert is a chap who goes by the name of Skeeve, who despite hailing from Eastern Europe – is now a renowned expert on non-league football in England.

It may sound bizarre that someone so far away can be clued up on the fact Braintree are missing a key midfielder or that Chelmsford’s on-loan star is suspended due a sending off in the Hampshire Senior Cup, but it’s true. Continue reading →

Will The Premier League Goal Fest Continue?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse the current Premier League goal glut

Football pundits are falling over themselves to explain how the recent goal fest proves that the Premiership is the best league in the world. With eight goals in the recent London derby and seven goals at the Manchester derby, football fans have certainly been getting their money’s worth.

While many now point to this as being the start of a golden season, the reality is that this season is more likely to be simply…..average. Let us show you why.

The first 10 weeks…

In the 99 games seen so far in the Premier League, there has been an average of 2.97 Goals Per Game (GPG). This is comfortably above the 2.59 GPG average for this point in the season, but still below the record average of 3.00 GPG for the first 10 weeks in 2009/10. Continue reading →

Are Man United more dangerous after a shock defeat?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

Manchester United didn’t just lose against Man City, they were demolished. They suffered their worst home defeat last weekend since the formation of the Premier League, and in the process drifted out to 2/1 second-favourites to be lifting the trophy in May.

A popular theory is that this makes United more dangerous to their opponents in their next game because they are looking to avenge their loss.

But is this true?

We have examined the data across Europe’s Big 5 leagues to find out if there are any trends that might point to an instant return to form for United this weekend against Everton. Continue reading →

Football Bulletin: Why Goals Might Be Scarce In The Capital This Weekend

Posted on by Mike

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

This weekend, we highlight two London based games where goals might be in short supply and neither match likely to feature prominently on Match of The Day. We also have some interesting stats on the Manchester Derby as well as suggested bet trends in Italy, France and Spain.

English Premier League

Arsenal vs. Stoke Under 2.5 match goals @ 2.11 SBO Bet.

Much has been written about Arsenal’s poor form this season, but they have won three out of four at home so far. Unlike their away games, they’ve also kept things very tight at the Emirates conceding just three goals and scoring just six. Furthermore, 11 of the last 20 Arsenal home games have had under 2.5 goals, while stoke have been -2.5 in 12/20. Arsenal are also ranked first for going under 2.5 goals against top half teams when at home. Continue reading →

How to spot when teams are over-performing

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover.  Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading →

Will boring Villa scupper Man City's hot streak?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Will boring Villa scupper Man City’s hot streak?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Football Bulletin: Expect A Tevez-Less City To Block Out Villa

Posted on by Mike

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

This weekend, we start off with Man City, where despite the loss of Carlos Tevez, the stats suggest a fruitless time for their opponents Aston Villa.

English Premier League

Man City vs. Villa: Man City Win to Nil. 2.50 Blue Square/888.

Man City’s home form has been superb. They are unbeaten in twelve of the last thirteen games, winning ‘to nil’ in each of their last five. City have also managed to keep clean sheets in all of their last seven home games against top half teams. Villa on the other hand are yet to win away this season and have lost in 10/15 trips to top three finishers since 2006/2007. Aston Villa have the lowest number of shots on goal this season away with just 22 in total and only 8 of these have been on target. Continue reading →

Why high flying promoted & relegated teams are headed for a fall.

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Newly promoted Southampton are two points clear at the top of the Championship after 10 games, whilst fellow new boys Brighton and relegated West Ham are also in the top five. Further down the English football ladder both Preston and Crawley have got off to excellent starts and sit in the top three in League One and League Two respectively, whilst Braintree Town lie near the top of the Conference.

Elsewhere in Europe, four of the top five teams in the Spanish Segunda (their second division) are either promoted or relegated teams, whilst Brescia who dropped out of Serie A last year, occupy third in Serie B, and Eintracht Frankfurt and St Pauli have responded to their relegations to Bundesliga 2 with excellent starts.

How likely was this?

To anticipate these teams’ progress we have analysed other fast starting promoted and relegated teams across the three lower leagues in England, the Conference, and in Segunda, Serie B, Ligue 2, and Bundesliga 2 since 2003/04. When assessing fast starting teams we have looked at teams that have averaged at least two points per game for either the first six of first 10 games. Continue reading →

Why high flying promoted & relegated teams are headed for a fall.

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Newly promoted Southampton are two points clear at the top of the Championship after 10 games, whilst fellow new boys Brighton and relegated West Ham are also in the top five. Further down the English football ladder both Preston and Crawley have got off to excellent starts and sit in the top three in League One and League Two respectively, whilst Braintree Town lie near the top of the Conference.

Elsewhere in Europe, four of the top five teams in the Spanish Segunda (their second division) are either promoted or relegated teams, whilst Brescia who dropped out of Serie A last year, occupy third in Serie B, and Eintracht Frankfurt and St Pauli have responded to their relegations to Bundesliga 2 with excellent starts.

How likely was this?

To anticipate these teams’ progress we have analysed other fast starting promoted and relegated teams across the three lower leagues in England, the Conference, and in Segunda, Serie B, Ligue 2, and Bundesliga 2 since 2003/04. When assessing fast starting teams we have looked at teams that have averaged at least two points per game for either the first six of first 10 games. Continue reading →