Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading

Champions League Value Bets: Value In the Gunners At Marseille

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
Results have not been good so far with the last round of matches being a virtual wipe out. Most of the bets have been 4.57 so the ratings are clearly finding more value in the underdog so far. The trouble is that the underdog is yet to properly bite. Continue reading

Fink Tank Value Picks 2011/2012

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. We tested their English Premier League ratings in the 2010/2011 season were very pleased with the results, returning over 50 points level stakes profit. 

How we tested it: 

For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank/ Dectech and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds.

Fink Tank/ Dectech provide their predictions in the form of estimated probabilities for the home win, draw and away win. You can then compare this to the available odds to assess whether a particular game offers value.

Here’s how the probabilities are displayed by Dectech/ Fink Tank

For example if the game is Blackburn vs Wolves, Fink Tank might give Blackburn a 51.4% chance. This means that according to the ratings, Blackburn should win 51.4 times out of a hundred.

Finding value

The next step is to find out if those ratings offer value. The ratings might give Man U a 68.3% chance of an away win against Blackpool, but are the bookies taking this into account with the odds they are offering?

Here’s how:

Step 1) First we need to compare like for like. This means we need to see what the ratings percentages are equivalent to in bookie odds.  To work this out, divide 100 by the predicted percentage. So for the Man U game, divide 100 by 68.3. This gives decimal odds of 1.46.

Step 2) Check for value. Now use an odds comparison site such as www.oddsportal.com. If the bookmakers are offering odds above 1.46 on Man U to win, it means there is value in the bet, but if they’re offering odds below 1.46 it means they are being too tight with the odds.

The difference between the predicted probability and the available odds gives you a measure of the % value available.

Here’s a typical table that we worked with:

Ratings Performance in 2010/2011.

We took this value betting approach last season to test the ratings. This meant we’d bet on the team if their predicted chance was greater than the chance implied by the bookie odds. E.g. Dectech gave Bolton 53% chance, the bookies only gave them a 45% chance. It doesn’t mean you’re going to win, just that you are more likely to win that the odds imply.

A point is equivalent to a mythical £1 on every bet.

Here’s the home & away comparison.

BetsProfitROI
All bets31052.3716.89%
Homes15326.617.00%
Aways15227.618.00%

The ratings performed superbly last season when taking this value betting approach. As good as these results appear, it certainly wasn’t a smooth ride with the profits coming in fits and starts, usually as big winners were landed. Notable highlights included West Brom to beat Arsenal away at 17.50, Newcastle to beat Arsenal away at 13.04, Wigan to beat Spurs away at 12.59 and Wolves to beat Liverpool away at 10.00. These four bets alone account for the bulk of the profits made over the season! This is worth bearing in mind before we read too much into last season’s results.

You can check our testing posts from last season with this link. 

 

2011/2012 Season. 

This season we’ll be posting the full list of value picks exclusively on our members’ betting forum, but we will continue to post up a couple of games each week here.

A word of warning though in that the ratings may be a little off in the first few games of the season if they are based on last year’s stats, so we suggest caution in the first few weeks.

As an example, here are 3 of the top value bets from the first weekend of betting in the Premier League this season.

Fink Tank

  • Newcastle Utd – Arsenal:  Newcastle @ 4.33 Corals = 23.84% Value.
  • Fulham – Aston Villa: Fulham @ 2.2 Various bookies = 4.5% Value.
  • QPR – Bolton: Bolton @ 3.47 Pinnacle Sports = 37% value

To get the full list of qualifiers each week, sign up to the Smart Betting Club today. 

Final Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

Update:

It was a storming weekend for the Fink tank ratings, picking up Villa, Spurs and Fulham to win away. The season’s total now stands at 52 points with an ROI of 17%. Not bad at all!

 

This weeks:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The ratings have thrown up some big value in certain games this weekend, but they are probably best taken with a pinch of salt with a very different United team likely to run out against Blackpool.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

 

Final Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

Update:

It was a storming weekend for the Fink tank ratings, picking up Villa, Spurs and Fulham to win away. The season’s total now stands at 52 points with an ROI of 17%. Not bad at all!

 

This weeks:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The ratings have thrown up some big value in certain games this weekend, but they are probably best taken with a pinch of salt with a very different United team likely to run out against Blackpool.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

 

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Not a bad week last week with Everton & Newcastle nice value picks. Stoke beating Arsenal was the icing on the cake. Season’s total stands at new equity high of 40.22, with an ROI of 14%. Not bad at all.

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

 

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Not a bad week last week with Everton & Newcastle nice value picks. Stoke beating Arsenal was the icing on the cake. Season’s total stands at new equity high of 40.22, with an ROI of 14%. Not bad at all.

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

 

Fink Tank Football Ratings & Value Bets

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Clubcould help you.

Fink Tank Football Ratings & Value Bets

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Clubcould help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Clubcould help you.