My latest podcast with professional racing punter, Lee Key has caused quite a stir if judged by some of the emails, tweets and DM’s received about it over the past few days.
Including a few from some of you wishing to know more about some of the topics raised in our interview – answers to which I have in todays email.
Alongside the increased usage of affordability checks by many firms, one of the chief concerns raised by Lee was regarding the proposed ‘Single Customer View’ (SCV) concept and its impact on UK bettors.
For those of you not familiar with it, SCV would allow each bookmaker to view your betting activity and deposits with all other licensed bookmakers.
Its introduction is in theory designed to help counteract ‘problem gambling’, yet the very real and live concern is that it will just be abused by the bookmakers as a way to further profile gamblers – including those of us winning or with the goal of winning.
Bookmakers deny this of course – but we know through painful experience that they can’t be trusted and that their greed coupled with the current regulatory environment has allowed them to create many of the issues now facing the industry.
As punters many things divide us, but what often unites us is a complete mistrust towards bookmakers, especially the big name firms who for too long have had it all their own way.
You will notice they are not complaining about the introduction of SCV – perhaps because they know exactly how useful accessing a punters complete information across ALL firms will be.
FIGHTING BACK
The reality of the situation is that as punters we need to fight back and to raise awareness of this and associated issues with the people in positions of power and influence.
They need to know that bookmakers already have and use lots of tools in their possession to profile winning bettors, so why not apply this to losing ones too?
This New York Times article suggests Skybet know a scary amount about each of us that bet with them already.
We also need to raise the concept of a Minimum Bet Law (MBL) again because as another pro punter and ex-Paddy Power head of trading, Anthony Kaminskas raised in his recent Star Sports interviews, it might well make them a lot more money if they introduced even a £500 MBL law and got rid of Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) pricing on horse racing and other concessions.
After all most punters worth their salt can make money without the need for BOG to give their winners a boost. Often it only really helps perennial losers long-term as the winners have it quickly removed or their accounts closed.
The reality is that a MBL will only work if ALL firms are compelled to offer it at the same time, so it requires legislation and regulation. It works in Australia after all – so why not here?
Caan explores further the issues with affordability limits, SCV and the roles of Government, the Gambling Commission and major bookmakers in the current mess we face.
He also proposes a solution of writing to your MP to raise this topic with them and to voice your opposition to SCV, frustration about betting restrictions and the imperative of a Minimum Bet Law.
Writing to your MP is something SBC have advocated in the past including back in January when we led a petition to separate skilled betting with casino betting – something that gained a lot of traction in the industry.
I received several emails from SBC readers and members who did exactly this and the discussions subsequently held with their Member of Parliament.
Whilst a few MP’s are happy to enjoy the fruits of bookmaker lobbyist money, the majority have no dog in this fight and might well listen to a reasoned, well made article on policy and legislation that can make a difference. I imagine most of them have no idea about these issues, so your voice could well cut through.
So, like Caan says, write to your MP, outline the key points as you see them and your concerns. It needn’t be an essay but just a few paragraphs to make them aware in your own words.
You might think – why bother – my MP won’t listen to me and indeed some might not, yet we can hardly complain about something if we take no action now can we?
The more noise we make about the fallacy of SCV, Bookmaker greed, a Minimum Bet Law and the separation of skilled sports and casino betting the better our chances of being heard!
And also perhaps even the better the chance the topics raised in this article might even be picked up by other media outlets to give the exposure needed.
For those of you interested in horse racing, the UK bookmaking scene or just profitable betting in general then the latest SBC podcast interview will be of major interest!
My guest in Episode 24 is professional racing punter, Lee Keys, a man who has made a living from betting on racing for the past 25 years and someone who knows a thing or two about beating the bookmaker.
As well as exploring Lee’s edge in the racing world, we also discuss some of the changes being proposed for UK bettors and the serious implications they will have if introduced.
We also explore Lee’s recent issues with the Betfair exchange and why they have been making life so difficult for many at the top of their punting game, plus his usage of offshore and ‘whatsapp’ bookies as a solution to getting his bets on.
Lee also discusses why so many punters multi account these days using cheap mobile phones including his tips on how to prime new accounts and go under the radar.
All told it’s a revealing insight into not only what Lee has achieved over the years but his take on the modern betting world and how to carve out a continuous edge.
Available now at all major podcast directories (search Smart Betting Club) and on the SBC YouTube channel
GET LEE’S MAGIC MULTIPLES TIPS!
Lee is also the brains behind the Free SBC Tipster service – Magic Multiples which has been performing superbly since it started back in 2020.
The results to date show a profit of 236 points at 60% ROI from 408 different multiples.
Back in August this year, I penned a very detailed SBC review exploring a uniquely profitable strategy for betting on football in bookmaker shops.
The strategy was put forward by a 3rd party betting service, which offered a unique tool to help quickly identify the best football bets to back each week – those which had ‘smart money’ following them in.
Alongside my review of the service in question and the strategy itself, I also explored their own record since 2017, where they had made over £60k at 25% ROI following it in person.
So impressed and convinced was I by this strategy that I upped my following of it this season with the small team that I work with – placing real money bets in real bookmaker shops on the football sides it identified as value.
Including with bookmakers I am unable to get more than 50p down online.
The great news is that performance has been excellent so far with a profit of £12,615.32 at 45% ROI from 143 bets placed since the end of April at mainly 2 different bookmakers. £12,382.34 of that profit has come in 136 bets placed since August 2021 alone.”
And this is backed up up by the results of those from the service offering this strategy themselves, which over the course of 114 bets since August is up 28% ROI and an actual profit of £5152.78.
Our results are different as it very much depends on how often and exactly when you visit the bookmakers to place the bets.
The good news is that both of us are in profit, although being honest, there is every likelihood that my own results are over-performing a little and that in time my 47% ROI might reduce to closer to between 25% and 30% ROI.
Not that I am complaining about over performance!
Yet what is clear is that this strategy continues to deliver and if yet to check it out and intrigued by the idea of betting in person in bookmaker shops, then I urge you to do so.
It is also needless to say a wonderful solution for those of you who like me are banned or restricted from betting online for winning.
Read The Article In Full.
You can read my full article on this strategy and the service behind it in SBC Issue 124, which is available the instant you become a paid-up member of the Smart Betting Club.
Inside this article you can find everything you need to make it work including advice on bet placement, the bookies to use, how and when to bet and even tactics for getting bookmaker shop staff onside!
The latest SBC Tipster Review is out now and explores a golf service run by 2 anonymous experts with a fantastic track record on the PGA Tour.
The tipsters behind the site tell us they need to remain nameless because if their true identities were known, then they would be very familiar names to golf betting enthusiasts in the bookmaking world!
Their golf expertise is backed up by the performance we have tracked, which include a 102% ROI since March this year, when we started backing the tips with our own money.
Better still, we managed a 120% ROI placing them mostly at the Betfair Exchange!
Not to mention that…THESE TIPS ARE 100% FREE.
That’s right..a hugely profitable golf tipping service that gives out their tips for free.
In this detailed review we take a deep dive into the service and cover all you’ll need to know, including…
The betting record dating back to 2019 which showcases a 44% ROI and 321 point profit to date.
The betting record at betfair which shows a 120% ROI since March! That beats the bookmaker ROI of 102% and our thoughts on how easy it is to match the quoted odds.
Staking and bankroll management recommendations with a focus on the exchange – including SBC Editor, Pete’s top tip for the each-way markets at Betfair.
The progressive re-investment strategy that compounds your profits meaning bigger returns.
For a free service this is certainly worthy of our attention…
Discover More On What It Takes To Win Betting With SBC….
You can access this review in full with a Smart Betting Club membership, available currently at super low prices starting from as little as £32.99 + VAT.
As the golf tipping service we feature above is 100% free, the only commitment you need to make to access our in-depth review is the SBC membership fee.
Plus as a member you will get all the other great aspects of joining the Smart Betting Club including…
SBC Magazines & Independent Tipster Reviews
Tipster Profit Reports
Bet Diary Pro
Free Tipster Access
Pro Betting Fundamentals Guides & Insight Articles
Back Catalogue Access
Unique Tipster Savings & Trials
Bookmaker Restrictions Help
How I Make Money Betting Interviews
And don’t forget about our money back guarantee which guarantees you your money back up to 90 days (length is dependent on subscription) if you are not satisfied.
So why not join today and see what a difference an SBC membership can make to your betting.
If you’ve recently been struggling with bookmaker restrictions and limitations then my latest article and video for SBC may help a great deal.
I recently recorded a video on the subject which you can watch here.
In this article I feature 4 Tipsters that are profitable on the Betting Exchange.
This means, no restrictions, no closures and viable long term options.
Betting on Betfair or other betting exchanges such as Smarkets, Matchbook and Betdaq can be seen as the holy grail for some sports bettors. If you can find a profitable strategy at the exchange you will not have to subject yourself to the various issues you will face when winning at the bootmakers.
Such issues as account closures or bet restrictions are commonplace for winning bettors at bookmakers. If winning at the exchange however, you will not face these problems and your experience will be very different.
Unfortunately it is not an easy thing to do and people normally find it much easier to beat the bookmakers. This is mainly due to the fact that the smartest bettors bet at the exchange so you have to beat these guys if you want to make a profit.
Luckily for us, SBC have been proofing tipsters that are profitable on the exchange for many years now. This means we have long term records for these services and we can clearly see there is potential to make money on the exchange by following some of these services.
In this article I’ve highlighted 4 services that all have long term profitable records on the exchanges.
Hopefully this will provide some valuable insight to those of you that are struggling with winning at the bookies and are looking for a viable alternative.
Ben is perhaps one of the biggest names in golf betting and tips for the betting website Sporting Life. He was reviewed by SBC in SBC Betting Magazine 119 and while the results assessment in that piece was based on bookmaker results, an odds comparison exercise was done showing that better odds could regularly be achieved at Betfair Exchange.
Pete who conducted the review mentions this in the ‘Odds Movement & Exchange Strategy’ section.
“The issue of odds movement is one that Ben freely admits to in our interview that follows. It is therefore important to be aware of this before committing to back his tips as you will find occasions when the odds on his selections have moved beyond what you should reasonably take.”
He went on to provide a previous example of this which clearly shows the better odds at Betfair. These selections were tipped for the Portugal Masters in September 2020.
Note – Coetzee won with Laurie Canter 2nd to make it a very profitable tournament!
3pts e.w. George Coetzee at 18/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Best odds 24 hours later: 15/1 (bookmaker) and 18.5 (Betfair)
1.5pts e.w. Jason Scrivener at 30/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Best odds 24 hours later: 30/1 (bookmaker) and 44 (Betfair)
1.5pts e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Best odds 24 hours later: 25/1 (bookmaker) and 29 (Betfair)
1pt e.w. Laurie Canter at 70/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Best odds 24 hours later: 66/1 (bookmaker) and 75 (Betfair)
1pt e.w. Jake McLeod at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Best odds 24 hours later: 100/1 (bookmaker) and 130 (Betfair)
The caveat here being you will not get the place concessions on the exchange like you would at a bookmaker. Bookies often will pay anywhere from 7 to 11 places rather than the standard 5 places at 1/4 odds.
We’re able to get round this by splitting our place bet between the top 5 and top 10 markets on Betfair.
If taking this course of action, here is how the returns would vary if staking £100 with either the bookmaker at 18/1 or on Betfair as per the above.
Coetzee top 7: £130 Bookmaker profit & £27.47 Betfair loss
Coetzee top 10: £130 Bookmaker loss & £27.47 Betfair loss
So here you can see slightly less money was made at Betfair but if some of the other selections had won, you would have made more. Plus, a small sacrifice of profit is well worth it when considering you won’t be losing accounts at the exchange.
Ben’s all time record as proofed by SBC stands at +1187.4 pts @ 26.5% ROI. So you can see even if you lose a small chunk of profit it’s very much worth betting at the exchange. Our findings regularly show you can get much better odds there so there’s potential to even increase this ROI.
Market conditions have to be right – odds/liquidity
All time record +46.88 pts @ 4.03% ROI
Discounts for SBC members
The Poacher is a football tipster that actually tips all of his bets at Betfair Exchange. This means there is no bookmaker comparison to do, no involvement with the bookie at all and the betting record that has been proofed by SBC is 100% based on exchange prices.
That betting record shows an all time record of +46.88 pts @ 4.03% ROI. This is going back to 2019 so it’s a steady long term profitable record, beating one of the sharpest places to bet around.
As it’s a football service the ROIs are smaller than some other sports but you’ll often find a lot more liquidity in football markets meaning you can get a lot more money down. The strike-rate is higher too so it is suitable for those of you with bigger betting banks that want reliable returns and lower variance.
The Poacher specialises in the Spanish football markets, mainly La Liga and the 2nd division.
Tips at bookies but exchange bets are possible as explored in SBC 118
Profitable at Betfair SP
Discounts for SBC members
The 3rd tipster I’ve featured is a horse racing tipster called CD Systems – Daily Bargain. SBC reviewed this service in magazine 118 and the results proofed were based on bookmaker bets and the Betfair starting price.
The bookmaker bets have shown an all time profit of +484.92 pts @ 31.02% ROI.
The Betfair SP record showed an all time profit of +147.27 pts @ 6.01%
Both these records are going back to 2012.
You can see there’s a big difference in profits here but betting at BFSP since 2012 has still shown a profit. This is very interesting and suggests Steve Jones who runs the service has an edge over the market.
This is because BFSP is seen as ‘true value’ in horse racing meaning you’d expect to break even if betting at that price over the long term.
In SBC 118 Steve mentions this point in his interview with Pete.
“Betfair SP is perhaps the closest thing we have to true chance, albeit retrospectively. Given that the aim of the game is to make bets at better than true chance, my job is to unearth bets that can be placed at prices bigger than perceived true chance.
Clearly, the most basic rule of betting is that we cannot possibly win in the long term if we don’t consistently make bets at greater than true chance odds.
On that basis, I don’t feel that producing performance stats in comparison to true-chance prices is beneficial. No professional would dream of making bets at true chance and any variation between Betfair SP (a 100% market) and true chance would only be either temporary, coincidental or the result of some outside factor (such as an influential tipster or a trader manipulating the market).”
In a nutshell – Steve is not a fan of Betfair SP betting and it is easy to understand why. Beyond setting the minimum price you can take; it doesn’t allow you to know what price you obtain until after the event – something that goes against the whole theory of value betting.
But as Steve went on to explain, there is certainly value (and sometimes huge value) in betting on his selections in the pre-race and in-play market…
“Having said all of the above, I do have plenty a number of members who successfully use the Betfair exchange in conjunction with my bets.
Their techniques involve placing unmatched money at a range of prices, upwards of the recommended minimum price and going out further than the biggest bookmakers’ prices, then selecting the ‘in-play’ option, as there are a significant number of big prices matched in-running.
All the highest matched Betfair Exchange prices can all be viewed historically on the Timeform Results site.”
A really interesting angle here then when mentioning placing bets using the ‘in-play’ option at Betfair. Often in-play prices can fluctuate wildly and winners can hit much much bigger prices in-play than their SP.
You can see how to do this in the below example…
At the very least we would advocate checking the Betfair pre-race market and requesting your bets be taken at the value odds put forward each day by Steve. It might make more sense to also request larger prices in case the bet drifts in price significantly.
As ever, the more time and effort you can put into following the Daily Bargain, the more you can make out of it. If able to take 10% better prices than Betfair SP, you can expect your ROI in turn to rise to 15.24% and if taking 15% better prices than Betfair SP, it would go up to 19.87% ROI.
This backs up when Steve also told us that “The bigger the gap between my minimum advised price (which is my idea of true chance – in other words, what SP should be) and the price you are able to secure, the better for your long-term profit.“
The final tipster featured is an SBC Premium serviceand another golf tipster in PGA Profit. It’s actually a service that I use myself at Betfair Exchange and I’ve already made huge returns from it…more on that in a minute.
For this service we’re lucky to have a big chunk of the results that have been proofed by SBC based on exchange bets. Since November 2020, the service’s record at Betfair is +498.38 pts. To put this in context, bookmaker profits from the same period stand at +524.83 points. So slightly less, but as mentioned before you should be more than prepared to take a hit on profits to be able to find a profitable strategy at the exchange.
And from a personal point of view, when I’ve used this service I’ve been able to regularly get better odds than what has been quoted in the tips. So if I had been using this service for the same period of time I may well have beaten the recorded points profits of +498.38.
Just for transparency, here is my personal betting record when using the service. I’m only 62 bets in but clearly have joined at the right time having hit 4 winners since I started following.
Here’s an example of a couple of PGA Profit’s tips which show exchange prices advised alongside bookmaker prices.
You can see that PGA Profit will tip the price in the top 5 finisher market at Betfair Exchange so the exchange points profit is based on this strategy. It’s also the strategy I’ve been following myself.
To Sum Up…
In my opinion any viable profitable strategy at the exchange is gold. If you find one, hold onto it, cherish it and put your time and resources into making the most out of it. You should be well rewarded if you do.
Hopefully this article has provided a first step into the world of betting profitably at the exchange. If you can dedicate some bankroll to any of these strategies then it is certainly worth giving it a go. It may allow you to grow your bankroll like you never have before.
