Month: April 2025

📈 Automatic CLV Tracking Added To SBC Proofing & Review Process 📈

Posted on by Josh P

When it comes to evaluating tipsters, one of the most reliable metrics we can use is Closing Line Value (CLV).

Why?

Because simply looking at profit and loss figures often doesn’t tell the full story. Results can be skewed by variance or small sample sizes – CLV cuts through all of that.

If a tipster is consistently beating the closing line, especially with sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle, it’s a strong sign they’re identifying genuine value and making smart bets.

They are tipsters or services we want to consider following with our own money.

That’s why we’re excited to be incorporating the methodology behind Track-A-Bet – the latest product from Christian Baier—into our proofing and review processes here at SBC.

This tool adds another layer of insight, helping us assess tipsters not just on outcomes, but on the underlying quality of their advice.

We also have produced some specific SBC Member user-guides on Track A Bet (both a video & written) to explain how it works further.

A Real Life Example

Let’s use this real-life betting record to illustrate: 183 bets at level stakes, average odds of 1.95 (or 19/20 in fractional odds), a profit of 20.49 points and a ROI of 11.15%. This is brilliant, right? We’ve found the next Patrick Veitch or Tony Bloom!

 

Maybe, but this tipster’s CLV suggests not. Despite the profit made during this snapshot sample, we would actually have expected these bets to lose 4.7 points with a -2.56% ROI considering the closing prices with Pinnacle.

This came from a recent submission to the SBC from a football tipster. Were they being disingenuous or lying about their bets? No, it appears that they were being ‘fooled by randomness’ into believing that luck was skill.

We would expect the red and orange lines to converge over time and unfortunately in this case – we’d be lucky to break even once the sample reaches 1,830 or 18,300 bets.

What Are We Doing With This Data?

We have always looked at the closing line at the SBC but this data allows us to do a few things that we couldn’t do before:

  1. We can now separate out the very best tipsters from the rest quickly, without having to collect larger samples or manually run checks on how bets are performing against the closing line
  2. We can incorporate this data into our reviews, with graphs and tables used to clearly demonstrate how much value bets are finding

This, alongside all of our other deeper analytics around things like drawdowns, betting banks and odds sensitivity mean that our commentary and conclusions will now have even more depth to help you find the right services for you!

Sign Up For Access

We have created two user guides for SBC Members on the Track A Bet product – one written piece and one 15-minute video walkthrough – so in addition to the packed reviews referenced above, you can get instant access to both of those (and all of our other Intelligence) too!

It takes just minutes to get this access – you can get a full membership by clicking here, choosing your subscription and entering your details – you will then be ‘in’!

If you have any questions about our work on CLV, our reviews or anything else, please get in touch!

🎧SBC Podcast #87: Kieran Ward’s Secrets To Finding & Betting Value🎧

Posted on by Josh P

In the latest SBC Podcast I am joined by Kieran Ward, an experienced bettor and tipster who has been finding value for over 25 years!

Value is central to what Kieran does and his tipping services, including The Value Machine and his newly formed The Value Machine Exchange Profits are both laser-focused on finding selections that are overpriced, whether that be with soft bookmakers or exchanges.

In this chat, Kieran and I walk through his history in the betting world, how his approach to gambling has changed over time and how he balances his own betting with running numerous successful services.

​SBC Magazine Issue #150 also came up as Kieran and I discuss a new project where he and a fellow ‘SBC Hall of Famer’, Allan Darke, have married their approaches to create a superb new system that is accessible to all as it is exchange based.

Adapting, finding sustainable solutions and providing services that customers want is central to why Kieran is so popular – this chat showcases that perfectly!

You can listen to Episode 87 now via Apple / Spotify / YouTube and all other major podcast directories (search Smart Betting Club)

PLUS! For a limited time, you can also save 20% on the Value Machine by using this code SBCPOD20 during checkout

You can also support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. You can get 150 days, commission free with them via this link.

In this chat, Kieran and I talk about:

  • A life in betting – what does Kieran do – what is his history in the betting world?
  • Bottom-up vs. top-down betting and issues with Betfair’s reliability
  • Getting on, tipping vs. betting and Kieran’s high-volume betting strategy
  • Kieran Ward: a day in the life!
  • Just racing or does Kieran dabble elsewhere?
  • ‘The Value Machine’ and Kieran’s other tipping services – developing, maintaining and innovating
  • Attainable returns using Kieran’s software & dealing with volatility
  • The Value Machine Exchange Profits: teaming up with Allan Darke
  • Betting into exchanges late – a different challenge to take on
  • Adapting to the markets and liquidity
  • Affordability and bureaucratic issues with operators
  • Kieran’s expansion plans
  • Where to find Kieran

You can read more about The Value Machine here and we have reviewed Kieran’s offerings on several occasions. To read those reviews, you will need a SBC Membership – you can see options for different subscriptions here.

📈Your Betting Journey: Making Profits Without ‘Soft’ Bookmaker Accounts📈

Posted on by Josh P

Here at the SBC we are putting an increased emphasis on proofing and working with tipsters who provide services that don’t rely on soft bookmaker accounts.

Why? Account restrictions, limits on bigger staking and a general unwillingness from bookmakers to take bets that turn out to be value mean that eventually, the only way to continue value betting legitimately is to migrate away from the soft books.

SBC #150: A Prime Example

​SBC Magazine Issue #150 provided an example of this as we reviewed an excellent new service that advises horse racing bets on betting exchanges.

This is a service for those at stages 3, 4 or 5 of their betting journey as this isn’t as simple as seeing ‘1pt each-way at 16/1‘ and placing a bet, but involves playing into the pre-race markets on exchanges or using software such as BF Bot Manager to get on at value prices when liquidity is at its deepest.

Here are a few snapshots from our review, where we looked at profitability for the service over a 21-month, 4,880 bet sample:

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A deep analysis is needed to proof and review a service like this and this is what we commit to, with many services not making the review stage after we find fatal flaws or issues with usability.

What is produced helps the reader to understand:

  1. How a service works
  2. What is needed in terms of time or account access to make it worthwhile
  3. The required bankroll to cover subscription costs (and leave plenty of profit!)
  4. What drawdowns can be expected and how volatile a service is
  5. Other FAQs that are relevant to the market (or the service in particular)

Ultimately, all of this helps SBC Members to answer the question ‘Is this service for me?’.

Other Examples

In amongst some of the services we work closely with are other examples where the need for bookmaker access isn’t a necessity:

  • ​Demetrio Giotti, the European basketball expert, recommends bets with Pinnacle and selections are only released when there is $1,000 liquidity available to get bets on
  • ​PGA Profit and Weekly Golf Value are two golf services that have excellent records on exchanges
  • Kieran Ward’s The Value Machine is a horse racing system that SBC Members have used to make excellent exchange profits backing at value prices

In our SBC Members’ Area, we have a dedicated section for bettors who are restricted to exchanges and sharp bookmakers, with detailed analysis of services that are suitable for them.

13 racing tipsters, 8 golf tipsters, 6 football tipsters and 7 tipsters from other sports such as tennis, basketball and darts are all inside, providing plenty of options!

Sign Up For Full Access

To access our reviews, intelligence, guides and other member content (including some very generous discounts!), you will require a paid SBC Membership, options for which can be found here.

Many members have saved the equivalent of an annual subscription to the SBC with one service discount alone, meaning that all of their other content was effectively free! You can do the same by clicking here and joining us.

If you have any questions about our service, what we offer and whether it would suit you then please reach out via email (you can reply to this message) or on Twitter/X @SBCInfo and I will get straight back to you!