World cup

Best World Cup Offer: Up to £70 in free bets for all new Smarkets customers

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SBC recommended betting exchange, Smarkets, have just sent over details on a fantastic offer for new customers, whereby you can enjoy up to £70 in free bets during the 2018 World Cup.

All you need do is pick a team for the World Cup and in each match they play, you will get a £10 risk-free bet to place.

So if you select a team that goes all the way to the World Cup Final, you can enjoy 7 X £10 risk-free bets. Every team is guaranteed at least 3 games so as an absolute minimum you will benefit from 3 X £10 free bets.

To qualify for this offer, you must be a new Smarkets customer and simply choose a team via this link.

smarkets

Why SBC Recommends Smarkets

Now I realise you will be inundated with details on special bookmaker offers during the World Cup, but the reason I am happy to put this forward is based on our recommendation of the Smarkets service.

Their low 2% commission rate compares very favourably (much better than main rival Betfair) and with a wide range of markets, increasing liquidity and good site stability, its a essential betting account.

Throw into the mix the chance to get up to £70 in free bets during this World Cup and it’s a great time to join them.

Best Regards,
Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor
Pete_HeadShot_SMall

Rugby World Cup Handicaps: Can the underdogs keep it up?

Posted on by Dan

In a previous post on the Rugby World Cup, we highlighted the following stat:

According to the Racing Post, in the last World Cup, there were 20 pool matches featuring handicaps of 30 points or more. Eight favourites covered the handicap while 12 fell short. 

Or put another way, 12/20 underdogs beat their handicap. So far the 30+ handicaps are 6/7 in favour of the underdog, let’s see how the latest games fare.

Last game:

Samoa vs Namibia: Namibia +30.5 @ 2.19 12bet. Samoa by more than 30.5 -1.00

Upcoming Games: 

Personally I feel we’ve had our luck with these handicaps and we may be giving the profits made as the bookies and major teams sharpen up.

Still, we’ll be tracking the performance of the 30 point handicaps for the rest of the tournament. Here are the upcoming games:

  • New Zealand vs Japan: Japan +54.50:  2.08 Pinnacle Sports.
  • England vs Georgia: Georgia +37.50: 1.91 Ladbrokes.
  • France vs Canada: Canada +31.50: 1.93 Pinnacle

There’s only one mid week handicap that qualifies, the bookies are waiting for team news before pricing up the weekend games.

Enjoy…

Rugby World Cup Betting: Underdogs beat the odds.

Posted on by Dan

In a previous post on the Rugby World Cup, we highlighted the following stat:

According to the Racing Post, in the last World Cup, there were 20 pool matches featuring handicaps of 30 points or more. Eight favourites covered the handicap while 12 fell short.

We highlighted all the 30 point handicaps, here’s how they performed:

  • New Zealand vs Tonga: Tonga +62.5 @ 1.94 Pinnacle Sports. Result….New Zealand by just 31. +0.94
  • Scotland vs Romania: Romania +35.5 @1.93 Pinnacle Sports. Scotland by 10. +0.93
  • Fiji vs Namibia: Namibia +30.5 @1.99 Pinnacle Sports. Fiji by 24. +0.95 Continue reading →

Grab This Tasty Special Offer For The Rugby World Cup

Posted on by Dan

The rugby world cup kicks off tomorrow with the hosts and tournament favourites, New Zealand taking on the friendly islands of Tonga (Population 100,000) in the opening game.

Picking the winner essentially comes down to whether you think New Zealand have the bottle to do it this time. Currently trading at 1.67 ish, the All Blacks are certainly the red hot favourites, but they don’t have a track record of converting ability into success. Since winning the world cup in 1987, they have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in subsequent tournaments.

It would be nice to see New Zealand have something to celebrate this year after the devastation caused by the Christchurch earthquake, but ultimately only the All Blacks themselves know if the All Blacks can do it this time.

Paddy Power Treble The Odds:

If you do want to have a punt on the Rugby World Cup, Paddy Power (08000 565 265) have a very special offer for new customers Continue reading →

Castrol ratings for the final & playoff

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Holland: 0.5 pt Uruguay +0.75 handicap & 0.5 pt Holland to score over 1.5 goals. +0.265
2. Spain vs Germany: Spain to qualify @ 1.89. +0.89

Castrol was absolutely spot on with the Spain game. The ratings picked out that Spain had the better players which out ranked Germany’s recent form. This match was a real test for the ratings and it came up trumps.

Running total: +11.23 points from 30 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

Third/ Fourth Place Play Off.

1. Uruguay vs Germany

Uruguay: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 3.4
Germany: 62% Chance -> Value odds: 1.61-> Best odds 1.4

The Germans should win this, but the betting markets are underestimating the Uruguayans a touch with the best odds on Uruguay implying a 29% chance vs the 38% predicted by Castrol. I think it would be prudent to hedge bets again and back Uruguay with the +0.75 handicap at 1.94 with various bookies for 0.5 points and cover the Germany dominance with a bet on Germany to score over 1.75 goals (over 1.5 and over 2.0 goals) at 2.01 for 0.5 pt which is the dominant over/ under team goal line at Pinnacle sports.

The Final

1. Holland vs Spain

Holland: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32-> Best odds 2.60
Spain: 57% Chance -> Value odds: 1.75 -> Best odds 1.57

Spain to win says Castrol, but they make it a much closer match than the bookies odds at the moment. Not a huge amount of juice in the 2.60 price though with those odds implying a 38.5% chance vs Castrol’s 43% chance.

The Double chance on Holland (the +0.5 handicap) pays 1.80 with 12 bet and the Draw No Bet is 2.63 with Bet Chronicle.

Holland to Win at 2.60 with Centre bet is the value bet for the final, but I’m not betting on this personally. Quite tempted by Holland to score over o.5 and 1 goals (over 0.75 goals) with Pinnacle though.

Castrol ratings for the final & playoff

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Holland: 0.5 pt Uruguay +0.75 handicap & 0.5 pt Holland to score over 1.5 goals. +0.265
2. Spain vs Germany: Spain to qualify @ 1.89. +0.89

Castrol was absolutely spot on with the Spain game. The ratings picked out that Spain had the better players which out ranked Germany’s recent form. This match was a real test for the ratings and it came up trumps.

Running total: +11.23 points from 30 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

Third/ Fourth Place Play Off.

1. Uruguay vs Germany

Uruguay: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 3.4
Germany: 62% Chance -> Value odds: 1.61-> Best odds 1.4

The Germans should win this, but the betting markets are underestimating the Uruguayans a touch with the best odds on Uruguay implying a 29% chance vs the 38% predicted by Castrol. I think it would be prudent to hedge bets again and back Uruguay with the +0.75 handicap at 1.94 with various bookies for 0.5 points and cover the Germany dominance with a bet on Germany to score over 1.75 goals (over 1.5 and over 2.0 goals) at 2.01 for 0.5 pt which is the dominant over/ under team goal line at Pinnacle sports.

The Final

1. Holland vs Spain

Holland: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32-> Best odds 2.60
Spain: 57% Chance -> Value odds: 1.75 -> Best odds 1.57

Spain to win says Castrol, but they make it a much closer match than the bookies odds at the moment. Not a huge amount of juice in the 2.60 price though with those odds implying a 38.5% chance vs Castrol’s 43% chance.

The Double chance on Holland (the +0.5 handicap) pays 1.80 with 12 bet and the Draw No Bet is 2.63 with Bet Chronicle.

Holland to Win at 2.60 with Centre bet is the value bet for the final, but I’m not betting on this personally. Quite tempted by Holland to score over o.5 and 1 goals (over 0.75 goals) with Pinnacle though.

Castrol Ratings for the Semi Final

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Argentina vs Germany. Germany Draw No Bet @ 2.37 Bet Chronicle. +1.37.
2. Paraguay vs Spain: Paraguay +1 @ 2.03. Refund.

Excellent value calls on Germany and Paraguay inferred by the Castrol ratings.

Running total: +10.07 points from 28 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Uruguay vs Holland 

Uruguay: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86-> Best odds 3.9 Pinnacle Sports
Holland: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54-> Best odds 1.31 Bet Chronicle.

Holland should win this according to Castrol, but according to the ratings, the bookies are over estimating the Dutch and underestimating the Uruguayans. Although there’s value in it, I don’t fancy Uruguay to qualify. The +0.75 handicap pays 2.06. which is more likely over 90 minutes. I’m going to put half a point on that and cover a Holland walkover by backing Holland to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.03 with Pinnacle Sports for the other half point.

2. Spain vs Germany

Spain: 60% Chance -> Value odds: 1.67-> Best odds 1.89 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 40% Chance -> Value odds: 2.5-> Best odds 2.04 188 bet.

I was quite surprised when I saw the ratings for this match, although four out of the top rated players are Spanish. The value bet is on Spain at 1.89 with Bet Chronicle. This will certainly be a good test for the ratings. The Germans have the better form, but according to the ratings, the Spanish have the better players. Should be a fascinating match.

Castrol ratings for July 3rd

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Holland vs Slovakia: Holland -1: Refund
2. Brazil vs Chile: Brazil -1. -1.
3. Paraguay vs Japan: Japan to qualify @ 2.65. -1, but great value bet.
4. Spain vs Portugal. No bet
5. Holland vs Brazil. Holland +0.5 1.98 SBObet +0.98. Excellent value call by Castrol ratings.
6. Uruguay vs Ghana: Uruguay to qualify @ 1.53. +0.53. Although a winning bet, Ghana clearly deserved to win this and I feel the ratings were way out here.

Running total: +8.7 points from 26 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for Saturday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Argentina vs Germany

Argentina : 52% Chance -> Value odds: 1.92-> Best odds 1.74 188 bet
Germany: 48% Chance -> Value odds: 2.08-> Best odds 2.25 Stan James

Argentina to shade it according to Castrol, but it could be a closer match than the odds compilers are pricing up. Germany’s best odds of 2.25 imply a 44% chance vs the 48% chance predicted by Castrol. Is that enough of an edge?

Germany +0.5 is 1.82 with SBObet and Germany Draw no bet is 2.37 with Bet Chronicle. The Draw No Bet seems to offer the best odds so that will go down as the value bet.

2. Paraguay vs Spain

Paraguay: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03-> Best odds 5.30 Bet Chronicle
Spain: 76% Chance -> Value odds: 1.31-> Best odds 1.21 Blue Sq.

No value in Spain at 1.21 according to Castrol ratings. The Paraguay +1 handicap is 2.03 seems more likely than Paraguay qualifying so that’s the value bet here.

Castrol ratings for June 29th

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

No joy yesterday. In retrospect I should have changed the tracking experiment and made it a no bet day. There really wasn’t much value in those odds and the bookies had things pretty tight. Still, the Holland -1 was a dodgy penalty in the 94th minute away from coming good.

Thankfully today we have one clear cut value bet, at least according to the ratings.

The Castrol ratings for Monday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Paraguay vs Japan

Paraguay: 53% Chance -> Value odds: 1.89-> Best odds 1.55
Japan: 47% Chance -> Value odds: 2.13-> Best odds 2.65 Bet Chronicle.

Japan have 47% chance of qualifying according to Castrol vs the best bookie odds of 2.65 which implies a 37% chance. Who’s right? We’ll find out in a few hours. Japan +0.5 is 1.92 while seems reasonable, but the value bet is Japan to qualify @ 2.65.

2. Spain vs Portugal

Spain: 63% Chance -> Value odds: 1.59 > Best odds 1.48
Portugal: 37% Chance -> Value odds: 2.70 -> Best odds 2.84

Spain should win this, but the value lies with Portugal according to Castrol. Portugal are given a 37% chance which still isn’t great with 2.84 representing a 35% probability. Value, but not enough for me, so I’ll skip this one for the tracking experiment. For the record, Spain are 2.11 for the win, Portugal 4.40 for the win over 90. Portugal +0.5 is 1.91 with 12 bet.

 

 

Castrol ratings for the 28th of June

Posted on by Dan

Before we get to today’s matches, here’s the scores on the doors so far:

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Final Group Games:

1. Portugal vs Brazil: Brazil @ 2.30 Various -1.00
2. North Korea vs Ivory Coast: Ivory Coast -1 @ 1.73 +0.73
3. Switzerland vs Honduras: Honduras/ Draw Double Chance @ 2.60 Unibet. +1.60
4. Chile vs Spain: Chile +1 @ 2.14 SBObet. Refund.

4th round:

1. Uruguay vs South Korea. Uruguay @ 1.44. +0.44
2. US vs Ghana: US @ 1.84 -1
3. England vs Germany: England @ 1.92 -1
4. Argentina vs Mexico: Mexico +1 @ 1.93 -1

Running total: 9.2 points from 20 points staked.

Not a great weekend for the ratings, but still up in the week of tracking. England’s rating was a fair bit out, though the bookies were also not prepared for it either, with the best odds of German going through being just 2.00, implying a 50% chance at best. US/ Ghana went down to the wire and Argentina/ Mexico was worth a value shout, though in retrospect the odds for the +1 handicap were rather tight given the Argie’s free scoring tendancies of late.

That’s the update, now lets continue the tracking experiment.

The Castrol ratings for Monday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Holland vs Slovakia

Holland: 86% Chance -> Value odds: 1.16 -> Best odds 1.20 Centrebet.
Slovakia: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.14-> Best odds 5.50 bet Chronicle

There’s value in betting on Holland to Qualify according to Castrol, but there’s not much juice in those odds. The 90 minute win pays 1.48 with Pinnacle, while the 90 minute -1 handicap is 1.87 with SBO bet. Technically Holland to qualify at 1.20 should be the value bet, but the -1 handicap seems more attractive given the domination expected.Fine margins though and it looks as though the bookies are largely in line with Castrol here. In reality this would probably be a no bet situation.

1. Brazil vs Chile

Brazil: 78% Chance -> Value odds: 1.28 -> Best odds 1.22 Centrebet.
Chile: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.54 -> Best odds 5.00 Boyle Sports.

Again, fine margins with bookies largely in line with Castrol here. Going by Castrol’s rating’s there may even be value in laying Brazil to qualify on betfair at 1.26 lay price. Small value though.

The Chile +1 handicap over 90 minutes @ 1.99 with 188 seems the closest to a value bet, but I’d want a bigger line than that against Brazil if I was betting with my own money. I’ve tracked the castrol ratings by betting on the side of the value though so to be consistent, I won’t skip this one, though don’t expect much. Chile +1 @ 1.99 188bet.