The rugby world cup kicks off tomorrow with the hosts and tournament favourites, New Zealand taking on the friendly islands of Tonga (Population 100,000) in the opening game.
Picking the winner essentially comes down to whether you think New Zealand have the bottle to do it this time. Currently trading at 1.67 ish, the All Blacks are certainly the red hot favourites, but they don’t have a track record of converting ability into success. Since winning the world cup in 1987, they have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in subsequent tournaments.
It would be nice to see New Zealand have something to celebrate this year after the devastation caused by the Christchurch earthquake, but ultimately only the All Blacks themselves know if the All Blacks can do it this time.
Paddy Power Treble The Odds:
If you do want to have a punt on the Rugby World Cup, Paddy Power (08000 565 265) have a very special offer for new customers opening phone accounts only. They are trebling the odds on any outright winner selection if you bet £50. That bumps up New Zealand to 3.0 and Australian 11.0 etc…
How this effectively works is Paddy Power adding a £100 bet to your £50 bet, thus trebling the size of the bet. The offer is valid beyond the opening game.
So if you want to have big odds bet on the hot faves, New Zealand, here’s how:
- Back them with Paddy’s (Currently 1.67) for £50.
- Lay them on Betfair @ 1.70 for £50.
- Small loss if the All Blacks lose due to commission, but you’ve got a £100 free bet potentially making your around £67 profit.
- You can get a bit more complex and make it a guaranteed profit no matter what the outcome with a bit of maths.
If you already have an account, tell your friends. Check terms and conditions.
Underdogs to beat the handicap?
The Racing Post’s Rugby special was released yesterday and its well worth a read. You can download the digital edition from the 7th here.
One stat that stood out was in relation handicap betting. There are some desperately uneven matches in the group stages with big potential for some cricket scores to be run up. For example in the first game against New Zealand, the Pacific Island of Tonga has a smaller population than Swindon.
However, the underdogs don’t rollover all the time. If you’ve ever seen a Tongan close up, you’ll see why you’d struggle to do this (literally).
According to the Racing Post, in the last World Cup, there were 20 pool matches featuring handicaps of 30 points or more. Eight favourites covered the handicap while 12 fell short.
With this in mind, here are the weekend’s handicaps that might be worth attacking:
- New Zealand vs Tonga: Tonga +62.5 @ 1.94 Pinnacle Sports.
- Scotland vs Romania: Romania +35.5 @1.93 Pinnacle Sports.
- Fiji vs Namibia: Namibia +30.5 @1.99 Pinnacle Sports.
- France vs Japan: Japan +45.5 @ 2.00 Ladbrokes.
- Australia vs Italy: Italy +30.5 @ 1.96 Pinnacle Sports.
- Ireland vs USA: USA +33.5 @ 2.03 Pinnacle Sports.