Return on Capital

Tipster Lies & Statistics / Calculating Betting Bank Growth

Posted on by Peter Ling

“Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics” …So goes the well-known phrase made popular by Mark Twain on how people (usually politicians) use numbers to push forward weak arguments.

Yet it’s not just politicians who like to bend the truth with numbers, but also tipsters too, with some of the worst culprits playing fast and loose with their profit figures.

For example, here are just a few claims I received from various tipster spam mailing lists I seem to be on:

  • “102 points profit so far made in June”
  • “I made £2551 Profit in just 4 days”
  • “Earn £800 a week tax-free per week”

The problem with each of these claims is that they only discuss profit without any context.

You might have made 102 points profit in June, but it’s not much use if the first 5 months of the year lost 200 points is it?

Even if the service in question has a long-term profitable record (unlikely as its spam!) then how much money did they risk to make those 102 points profit?

After all, you wouldn’t want to be risking £200,000 to make that £800 a week would you? 

How To Put Tipster Results Into Context

So how exactly can you weigh up how valuable a tipster really is and put their profit figures into context?

Well, one of the best methods we advocate is working out its Return on Capital (ROC), which is sometimes also known as Betting Bank Growth.

This is a very effective calculation as it tells you how much your initial money will grow over a period of time.

Simply quoting 102 points profit means nothing, but 102% ROC – well that would indicate you have more than doubled your betting bank.

Here are a few examples to explain further…

  • Tipster A makes 50% ROC in a 6 month period
    If starting with £2000 you would now have a £1000 profit (50% ROC)
  • Tipster B makes a 150% ROC over the course of a football season
    If starting with £5000, you would now have a £7500 profit (150% ROC)
  • Tipster C makes a 300% ROC over a 2 year period
    If starting with £1000, you would now have a £3000 profit (300% ROC).

Why ROC Often Beats ROI!

For my money, working out the ROC or Return on Capital for any tipster often supersedes many other calculations, including Return on Investment (ROI)

ROI works out how much you have to stake to make your profit and whilst important, it is often ROC that provides even greater context.

As an example, check out the stats on the football tipster below, who over the course of 2 seasons has made a 8.8% ROI and 66.6 points profit from 824 bets.

WW300617_00

Now at first glance to some punters, this record seems OK at best. Only 66.6 points profit in 2 years at 8.08% ROI might seem fairly small in comparison to some other tipsters.

Yet, you would be wrong to ignore these stats and you will see why when I add in the ROC figures below.

WW300617_01

Due to the relatively high strike-rate and our suggested bank size, the ROC calculation comes in at 166.5% for the entire 2 season period. 

That’s 95.7% bank growth in 2015/16 and 70.8% bank growth in the 2016/17 season.

Starting with £2000 in 2015, you would have made a profit of £3,320 over the course of these 2 seasons.

I don’t know about you but if I could guarantee my betting bank would grow by 166% over the course of 2 seasons football betting, I would take that!

One Size Does NOT Fit All!

Despite all the above, you do need to be very careful when it comes to working out your betting bank sizes as some tipsters do not have a clue on what to advise!

I have seen several examples where a tipster has claimed a huge ROC, yet clearly have far too small a betting bank suggestion.

So small, that if following you would have bust your bank long before any profit is made.

All of which is why, here at SBC we set our own betting bank sizes for EVERY tipster we review, using a special simulator we developed to help calculate the optimum suggestion.

This simulator crunches the numbers for each tipster to arrive at a suggested betting bank figure that is realistic and fair.

Some tipsters don’t like this as we often recommend higher betting bank sizes to those they suggest.

Yet ultimately what is most important to us is providing you with fair and accurate betting bank suggestions you can stick to.

Expert Guidance On ROC, ROI, Profit, Banks & More

You can discover more on the best performing tipsters for ROC (or Betting Bank Growth) as a Smart Betting Club member.

Not only this, but you can also find comparison tables providing you with details on:

  • The best overall tipster
  • The most profitable tipsters
  • The best tipsters from the last 12 months
  • The best low cost tipsters
  • The best free tipsters
  • The best ‘odds availability’ tipsters (those that quote realistic prices)
  • And much more besides…

We also know that its not just profits in theory that you want but in practice. Which is why you can also view:

  • The Best ‘Adjusted Profits’ Tipsters – how their profits stand up if betting often 15 to 30 minutes after a tip is supplied (ideal if worried about not getting the advised prices!)
  • Unique ‘Suggested Profits’ Tables – how much money you need to risk and how much you can make betting. Fully tailored to each tipster to be entirely realistic.

For those of you keen to understand how betting banks work, we also have a full rundown in the Pro Gambler Blueprint we supply to you as a Smart Betting Club member.

All of this is available to you the instant you join us at the Smart Betting Club.

Best of all, you can now join and save up to £38 as part of our specially discounted 2017 membership prices.

<< JOIN THE Smart Betting Club TODAY >>

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

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The Tipster Making £2,378 Annually From 16 Bets Per Month

Posted on by Mike

If there is one thing we are known for at the Smart Betting Club it’s our Hall of Fame of the best tipsters to follow – effectively those proven to make you money betting.

Yet if you are like most people you will likely have 2 key questions you want answering before you start following the best tipsters…

1. How Much Money Will It Make You?
And
2. How Much Time Will It Take?

Allow me to quickly answer both questions and show you how easy and profitable it can be if following the right tipster, including how one tipster supplying just 16 bets a month makes an average profit of £2,378 a year. Continue reading →

How To Judge Just How Potent A Tipster Really Is

Posted on by Mike

Those of you who have spent time researching and following different betting tipsters will know how difficult it can be at times to know exactly how much money they can make you. This is because tipsters (especially the Arfur Daley types) often use many different misleading calculations in order to show their own results in a good light.

The good news is that help is at hand as I want to unravel a few such dodgy tipster practices and also show you one calculation we use here at the Smart Betting Club, which gives you the straight facts on any tipster.

Let’s start off with the ugly side of tipster reporting with a few classic examples of misleading figures that some of the worst tipsters use…

  • Selective Results Reporting
  • Claiming the past 3 months results will have made you £5000, when the 3 months prior to that may have lost you £8000! 
  • Poor Return For Your Investment
  • Claiming to have made £1000 profit, however you would needed to have risked £100,000 in order to make that.
    Ridiculously High Stakes

    Tipsters that work to £500 per bet to try and make their profit figures look more impressive.

It can be a jungle out there trying to find the right tipster but one way to ignore these misleading stats is to use a simple calculation called Return on Capital.

Capital One

Return on Capital (or ROC) is a really effective measure that translates how much your money has grown in relation to its starting point. It is a simple percentage figure, which is very easy to calculate – even Robbie Savage could work it out!
Although if Robbie does join us here at SBC, he will see we also produce the ROC each month for every service we monitor.

To explain ROC, say for example you put £5000 into a high interest account and at the end of the year you had £6000. Well your profit is £1000, but your ROC is the percentage increase, which in this instance is 20%.

(To get this figure simply divide 100 by your starting amount – £5000 and then multiply by the profit – £1000).

Sadly, these days you are very unlikely to get anywhere near that amount of ROC from £5000 in traditional savings accounts.

This is why more and more people are turning to alternative ways of investing their money – such as through betting, where with the right people guiding you, the ROC can be very appealing.

The ROC From Our Best Services

To help explain how useful ROC is a bit further, I am going to show you the exact ROC amounts for each of the 9 top-rated racing tipsters we recommended in 2010. If you have yet to do so, you can see all the profit figures for each of these tipsters at this blog post, but in the table below are the exact ROC figures.

To unpack this table further, we recommend a betting bank figure for each service (2nd column) and next to that you can see the points profit for 2010 that this service made. In the final column is the exact Return on Capital amount in percentage terms.

The top performer was Service 7, with a whopping 455% increase in 2010. To put that in financial terms, if you had started the year with £5000, this would have become £27,552 by the end of it.

Of course they are by far and away the top performers, but still any of Services 3 through to 9 would have made at least 23.72% up to 147.27% ROC.

Much more than any bank is going to offer you in the current economic climate!

And if you find yourself approached by a tipster claiming results that look too good to be true, be sure to ask them about their own Return on Capital. If they don’t know what this is or refuse to answer, then you may well have dodged a bullet!

Find out More

If you find these kind of stats helpful then you will love our monthly Tipster Report, which gives you the latest ROC for around 35 of the very best tipsters out there. We also calculate other useful figures for you, such as Strike-Rate, ROI and our very own power ranking, which we call ROI+.

All of these stats are provided for the most recent month, past 6 and 12 months as well as all-time performance. You have every possible stat to make the most accurate and informed choice as to the tipster(s) that will make you the most money!

Sign up today for instant access with a Smart Betting Club membership.