We enjoyed a bumper return last weekend with all 3 Main bets winning to really boost the seasonal figures as we enter the last month or so of action. There are only 6 games to choose from in the Premier League this weekend with the FA Cup Semi-Finals at Wembley and there isn’t a huge amount of value out there as far as I can see. I have just one Main and one Shortlist bet for this weekend as so many of the teams playing are inconsistent, injury-prone or just priced up pretty well by the bookmakers.

My one main bet is down at the Emirates this Sunday where Arsenal host Liverpool in game likely to be over-shadowed by the Bolton – Stoke City fixture the same day (not a statement I often expect to write). I think the bookies have under-estimated the chances of goals here and the 1.95 on over 2.5 goals looks to be a shade too big judging by the evidence (Even the next best odds of 1.91 still look far too big). We all know that Arsenal haven’t been firing of late but they have still seen 42 goals in their 15 home games and gone past the overs mark 56% of the time. We also have similar stats for Liverpool and looking at the relatively soft defence for both sides I think we should see goals. Whether its Lehmann or Almunia in nets for the Gunners, Suarez, Carroll et al will test them a lot more than Blackpool did, whilst Liverpool at the back have injuries and are missing a number of key defenders. Kenny Dalglish has not been able to settle on a winning away formula for his new charges and defeats away at WBA and West Ham lately reflect that.

My only shortlist bet is again in the over 2.5 goals market and features a favoured team of mine for this bet – West Ham who are far from convincing defensively as they have proven in recent weeks. The bookies are slowly cottoning on but still odds of 1.86 on over 2.5 goals in their home game against Villa looks too high for me. Both these teams have seen over 3 goals on average per game home and away respectively and I make the chance of this bet greater than then 53.7% chance that odds of 1.86 implies.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Arsenal V Liverpool. 1.95 Betsson. Next best 1.91 Pinnacle/Canbet/188bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Aston Villa. 1.86 Pinnacle/12Bet

It’s entering that time of the season for separating the men from the boys and we are starting to see some of the usual suspects show their true colours. Man Utd always seem to peak around this time and never know when they are beat when it matters (remember Macheda vs. Villa), in total contrast to the likes of Arsenal who always wilt at the slightest inkling of pressure.

That’s just one reason why I am backing a Rooney-less Man Utd this weekend to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap at home against Fulham. Utd quite simply are awesome at home in the league and in the last 2 seasons have played 33, won 29, drawn 2 and lost just once at Old Trafford. Fulham in contrast have lost 17 out of their last 33 away games, including to all of the top 4 and 8 out of the top 10 this season. In terms of margin of victory, Utd have won by 2 or more goals in 19 out of those 29 victories and mostly against bottom half sides (such as Fulham). Team wise – United have the usually rock solid Vidic and Ferdinand partnership back and Continue reading →

Finally back with Premier League action after the inescapably dull International friendlies in midweek, where for once I find myself agreeing with Sir Alex that they should be scrapped all together. If I was a bookie I would love these games as they are so hard to call and uncompetitive yet high profile – perfect for helping build that bookmaker pension fund.

Thankfully though, there seems to be a whole host of good value bets on offer this weekend, starting down at Upton Park where I think the 1.92 about 3 or more goals looks to worth an interest. West Ham’s home games for the past 2 seasons have gone overs roughly 62% of the time, whilst United away have seen overs in 73% this season (47% last). I am far from convinced about the Hammers defence and I fear they will struggle to cope with the attacking thrust down the flanks with Antonio Valencia back fit to join Nani out wide. Odds of 1.92 suggest the chance of overs is 52%, whereas I make it closer to 60%.

Wigan have a reputation for 2 things – eating pies and low scoring games but yet they are 11^th in the table for goals scored and conceded this season and in their home games against the top 4 have let in 14 and scored only 2 (no idea where they stand in the pie consumption league table!). They face Spurs who themselves have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of games away this year and I make the chances of over 2.5 goals around 55%, whereas the bookies have priced this up at 2.10 – a percentage chance of just 47.6%.

There is evidence to suggest that Stuart Holden was the most effective midfielder in the Premier League this season and Bolton are certainly going to miss him after his horror injury against Man Utd last time out. I have fancied the trotters all season long in a number of bets but I think they will have their work cut out without Holden away at Birmingham who I am backing with an 0 Asian Handicap at 1.83. Bolton have actually only won 2 away games all season, whereas Birmingham have lost only 4 in total at home. I make the home win % chance considerably higher than the away win % chance, so with a draw returning our money and decent odds, some value here.

The bookies have cottoned on to the fact that Blackpool’s games will always feature lots of goals under Holloway and as such there is next to no value in the over markets these days. Games involving the Tangerines have seen 105 goals this season, compared to just the 66 involving Fulham, who they travel to face this weekend. We should see a very contrasting game here with Fulham’s rigid 4-4-2 up against Blackpools 4-3-3 deriative and I fancy the away team with a +1 Asian Handicap at 2.04. Fulham have won just 3 out of 11 games at home by more than 1 goal, whereas Blackpool despite their gung-ho approach have lost just 3 out of 13 by more than 1 goal against non top 5 sides.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92 Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves.  1.96 Pinnacle/12bet

*All odds correct at time of release on blog yesterday.

Finally back with Premier League action after the inescapably dull International friendlies in midweek, where for once I find myself agreeing with Sir Alex that they should be scrapped all together. If I was a bookie I would love these games as they are so hard to call and uncompetitive yet high profile – perfect for helping build that bookmaker pension fund.

Thankfully though, there seems to be a whole host of good value bets on offer this weekend, starting down at Upton Park where I think the 1.92 about 3 or more goals looks to worth an interest. West Ham’s home games for the past 2 seasons have gone overs roughly 62% of the time, whilst United away have seen overs in 73% this season (47% last). I am far from convinced about the Hammers defence and I fear they will struggle to cope with the attacking thrust down the flanks with Antonio Valencia back fit to join Nani out wide. Odds of 1.92 suggest the chance of overs is 52%, whereas I make it closer to 60%.

Wigan have a reputation for 2 things – eating pies and low scoring games but yet they are 11^th in the table for goals scored and conceded this season and in their home games against the top 4 have let in 14 and scored only 2 (no idea where they stand in the pie consumption league table!). They face Spurs who themselves have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of games away this year and I make the chances of over 2.5 goals around 55%, whereas the bookies have priced this up at 2.10 – a percentage chance of just 47.6%.

There is evidence to suggest that Stuart Holden was the most effective midfielder in the Premier League this season and Bolton are certainly going to miss him after his horror injury against Man Utd last time out. I have fancied the trotters all season long in a number of bets but I think they will have their work cut out without Holden away at Birmingham who I am backing with an 0 Asian Handicap at 1.83. Bolton have actually only won 2 away games all season, whereas Birmingham have lost only 4 in total at home. I make the home win % chance considerably higher than the away win % chance, so with a draw returning our money and decent odds, some value here.

The bookies have cottoned on to the fact that Blackpool’s games will always feature lots of goals under Holloway and as such there is next to no value in the over markets these days. Games involving the Tangerines have seen 105 goals this season, compared to just the 66 involving Fulham, who they travel to face this weekend. We should see a very contrasting game here with Fulham’s rigid 4-4-2 up against Blackpools 4-3-3 deriative and I fancy the away team with a +1 Asian Handicap at 2.04. Fulham have won just 3 out of 11 games at home by more than 1 goal, whereas Blackpool despite their gung-ho approach have lost just 3 out of 13 by more than 1 goal against non top 5 sides.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92 Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves.  1.96 Pinnacle/12bet

*All odds correct at time of release on blog yesterday.

Putting up my bets for this weekend early as some such as in the Man Utd – West Ham game have seen the odds drop. A full write-up will follow…

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92 Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves.  1.96 Pinnacle/12bet

Very close to a good weekend for the Main bets last Saturday and Sunday with the late Dimitar Berbatov goal, adjusting our profit in that game from a full 0.95 pts to just 0.475. We just needed one further goal in the Sunderland – Liverpool game to pick up a further 1.42 pts profit, which would have made a major difference to our ROI. Such fine margins at play, although of course, the belief is that evens out over the season. As it was just a 0.45 pt profit for the Main bets from 3 pts staked.

Ante-post wise though it was a good weekend with Stoke climbing back into the top ten for our bet on them at 7/2 and Blackpool conceding 2 more goals to ensure they still have the leakiest defence in the top flight (we are on at 11/8). It’s anyone’s guess who is going down now though although I am confident that at least 2 out of our 3 bets on Wolves, Wigan and West Brom to go down will pay out.

There are no bets this weekend as its International Football and so I am preparing for what should be a manic April, with plenty of games lined up in the English top flight!