SBC Magazine

✍🏻Snapshot Review #1 Sharp Betting: Boxing✍🏻

Posted on by Josh P

In a new SBC feature we will be releasing Snapshot Reviews, where we take a look at services and let the betting public know about how they work, the performance during our time observing them and anything else that we pick up on whilst trying them out.

These reviews will not have all of the in-depth analytics that we use in our full reviews, but should give you a good idea of whether the service in the Snapshot is something that may interest you. These pieces will be free for everyone to view, whether they are an SBC Member or not.

Snapshot Review #1 Sharp Betting: Boxing

  • Boxing opinion pieces with recommended bets, analysis & more
  • Written by two well-established and experienced bettors with very different backgrounds
  • 14.68% ROI using a unit win staking plan
  • Only 34 bets so far; difficult to measure CLV
  • Qualitative measurements (judgement!) used
  • Free to view for any site visitor

Betting Bluster

Two betting events in 2024 left me questioning the betting world and its ‘experts’ more than any others and to be honest, I had no idea how to go about pricing either of them up. My bewilderment came from listening to or reading commentators exude overconfidence, blatant biases and hubris when talking about things that they very obviously had no domain knowledge of.

The US Presidential Election market was the first. I read some extraordinary takes about the probabilities of each candidate’s chances given their respective odds and the depth of the market in the weeks leading up to the Electoral College count. A book could be written about how some people would be (a lot) poorer if they really believed the things they said with such conviction but I’m A) a poor writer and B) too lazy to write a book.

The second event was Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, the weird, wonderful or woeful matchup (you choose which camp you fall into) that took place in Mid-November. Like US Politics betting, I would be lost if asked to price something like this up from scratch but yet again, I saw such disparate (yet definitive) opinions so confidently decreed – it was very clear that a lot of the ‘expert betting community’ had no idea either.

Sharp Betting: Boxing 

Luckily, this coincided with trying to learn a little about boxing betting via the Sharp Betting site and their collective commentary around the fight was a lot more balanced, probability based and, with the ‘bullshit detector’ on full alert due to everything else I’d seen, informed. The outcome was irrelevant to me (even though the core bet and top up landed) – it was one of very few places that talked without emotion or the nostalgic memory of Tyson’s brilliance. Fighter A was up against Fighter B – what should the odds be? How did these odds compare to the prices available in the market? 

Sharp Betting’s boxing offering has been live since February this year and they have provided 30 pieces during that time, talking about everything from specific boxing cards and suggested bets right through to quizzes, opinion pieces, trends and analysis – all of which are freely available to read here. New previews are promoted on Sharp Betting’s social media channels for less regular visitors to the site. 

The Numbers

I will get into what I think about this content shortly but first you will no doubt want to know how these opinions have stacked up figures wise.

You can find a full record of Sharp Betting’s boxing recommendations here, with the following headlines:

  • 34 bets have been advised with selections ranging from straight ‘win’ bets through to round betting, method of victory betting and some multiples where value was identified in several spots on a card
  • The advised odds average out at 3.63 (2.63/1) with the shortest-priced selection being put forward at 1.33 (1/3) and the longest-priced selection being put forward at 19.0 (18/1)
  • 17/34 (50%) of bets have won, with the longest priced of these delivering at 5.0 (4/1)

No stakes are advised alongside selections so I have deployed a unit-win strategy to assess the bets with a uniform edge. With all bets staked to make £100 profit, turnover totals £3,337.22 so far and the resultant profit of £473.07 using this strategy represents a 14.68% ROI. 

Reading the pieces will give you an idea of the conviction that the writer has – variable staking is well worth considering here if you ever follow the advice in as both massive ricks and lukewarm leans are both present throughout the catalogue. My crude unit-win numbers can no doubt be improved upon.

This sample is still small so we can’t read too much into the P & L data so far. Ordinarily I would use Closing Line Value (CLV) to analyse such a sample but obtaining accurate closing odds for most selections was difficult (please see the notes at the bottom of the results sheet for more information). With both of these things in mind, we need something more qualitative to judge whether the service is worth following moving forward.

About The Contributors

The core contributor is David Hipkin, the co-founder of Sharp Betting and a former boxing trader in the industry. David has been responsible for the majority of the selections and write-ups so far and you can see/hear him talk about his betting and processes in several videos on the Sharp Betting site.

The other regular contributor is Johnny Wright, a well-connected US wing of the group who brings nuance and a very obvious expertise to the fore. 

Both David and Johnny talk about past fights, fighting styles, psychology, ‘ring IQ’ and the verbal sparring that preempts the physical action. From all that I have read, David leans on this heavily for his analysis; Johnny introduces less visible factors (boxing politics, the unseen yet evident pressure on judges & boxing media narratives) to provide a good blend of the quantitative and qualitative.  

In this video, you can view the pair talk about the biggest bouts of 2024 from a betting perspective, with price and probability yet again central to everything they cover:   

David Hipkin & Johnny Wright discussing 2024’s action 

Is It Worth Following?

So, is it good? I’m nowhere near being a boxing betting expert but I feel that I’ve seen enough tipster services and commentary to take a stab at answering the question with a few observations.

I like the fact that odds and probability are central to every chat. The underdog is value? Why? Fighter A is 1.33 but should be 1.2? Why? These questions are posed and answered, something that is an issue in betting chat generally, but especially so in the boxing content I have consumed.

David’s first write-up – which covered the Ngannou vs Joshua and Zhang vs Parker bouts – is a prime example. The fact that both of his recommendations won is irrelevant when we’re looking for a long-term edge – he called the fights based on the odds and the chances of the fighters winning, not by lazily saying ‘I think this fighter will win, 2 point win’. Here is how he concluded his Zhang vs Parker piece:

‘When this fight was announced, Parker was a generously priced 3/1 outsider. You’ll do well to find 2/1 odds for him now.  Zhang is a huge test, but he is a 40-year old man with a 20-stone frame to carry over the scheduled 12-rounds.  Parker is underrated in this fight, he will present more movement, speed and athleticism than Zhang faced in his headline-grabbing wins over Joyce. I think the market has got this one wrong and would have Parker no bigger than 6/4.’

 Johnny’s writings have a different flavour, as the man himself points out here:

‘We will weigh thoughts about each of the fights we dissect by giving a breakdown of some of the lesser analyzed & somewhat overlooked aspects of each fight and fighter. Many of the aspects of the fights we analyze might not be considered by the average bettor and/or might not be weighed heavily enough. In fact, some of the stuff we discuss might be completely overlooked by some bettors, possibly due to some bettors being swayed by Boxing Media propaganda or the consistent ramblings of many clueless online casuals.’

As you can probably tell by now, this take on some of the wider commentary is one that I agree with wholeheartedly but can it provide the edge we are looking for? 

I think so. Johnny’s breakdown of the mental frailties of both fighters in the Joshua vs Dubois fight was a fascinating read and before making a value based call, he freely admitted the uncertainty he felt: ‘Trying to look into the psyche of Daniel Dubois to try to figure out his mindset heading into this specific match is like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube after drinking 12 pints of Guinness.’

After ‘toing and froing’ he landed on two bets based on odds he thought were too disparate from their opposites – Dubois to win and for the fight to go the distance. The former landed (at 4.50) but the latter lost (at 5.0) as Dubois KOd Joshua in the 5th.

Away from the relative merits of any given fighter, analysis of the collective mindset of the market is also a prominent factor in David and Johnny’s work and I have been regularly reminded of ‘talking horses’ who are so often overbet by racing punters. They regularly oppose this mindset with very clear reasoning whenever they do so.

Conclusion 

The snippets shared above provide examples of what we can expect from Sharp Betting’s boxing coverage and this Saturday (21st December) will provide another that we can watch play out live. A 4.0 (3/1) shot is Johnny’s call for ‘Usyk vs Fury II’ – you can read why here.

What I have observed from Sharp Betting’s offering so far is excellent and it fits the criteria of what I look for in analysis and commentary. Doubt is a positive, probabilistic calculations are essential and the market can be both a guide and a paradox (see Paul vs Tyson) with a sport that is so hard to model.

As a ‘boxing betting layman’, I rate this service and will continue to follow it. Listen to the chats or read the previews and you hear about bouts talked about in a way that is the polar opposite of the overconfident bluster I referenced in the introduction.

Do I rate Sharp Betting’s boxing offering enough to follow in selections with chunky stakes? No, probably not. This isn’t due to a lack of confidence in the contributors – I really like what I’ve seen so far. I save my bigger banks for things that I have an opinion on myself and with any tipster/betting record, I like to build up a more comprehensive idea of CLV and other data points before taking the plunge towards staking aggressively.

What I will be doing is reading and listening to anything they produce and follow them in for bouts that I will be watching (starting with Usyk vs Fury II this weekend). If you decide to join me, good luck!

Like This Piece? Sign Up Or Learn More With A Free Membership

This Snapshot Review is a little less detailed than most of our reviews but I hope that the fact you’ve got to the end means you enjoyed it! If you would like to see what our more detailed analysis looks like then please click here to sign up for a Free SBC Membership which will provide you with a sample magazine with four full reviews inside alongside some other content from 2024 that we have delivered to our members.

If you would like a full membership with instant access to all of the SBC Membership benefits then you can find sign up options here.

Gwdihw Racing: Analysing This Betfair SP Tipster – Explaining Our New Metrics

Posted on by Josh P

In our SBC Magazine for November, Issue #147, we took a look at Gwdihw Racing, a Betfair SP tipster that is free to follow.

From our usual analysis point of view, this presented issues as for the first time we were looking at a service that didn’t have Closing Line Value as a metric we could look at. I.e. we couldn’t benchmark performance against Betfair SP as that is what it used!

With that in mind, we introduced a few more bits of analysis to help us explore not only Gwdihw Racing but Betfair SP and exchange-based tipsters themselves. We talked about it in SBC Podcast #82 but thought that sharing a little more detail in this email would be useful too!

An Evolution In Betting

Before discussing those metrics, it is worth discussing why a Betfair SP tipster is so attractive to punters, especially successful players.

Account restrictions, high margins on early prices and bookmakers’ unwillingness to lay racing bets have made it more difficult than ever to make sustainable profits from the sport.

As John, Gwdihw’s operator, discusses here, profit and loss to bookmaker prices can often be illusory:

 

Gwdihw avoids all of these pitfalls by taking on the toughest of lines – Betfair SP. Outside of pure Profit and Loss figures, here are two of our newer metrics that we introduced to analyse the service…

A/E and PRB

Actual/Expected is a great way to test whether a system or strategy is performing beyond bare profit and loss as it weeds out unsustainable approaches and tests the selection process against market expectation.

This will be tethered to P&L for the most part (especially at Betfair SP), but as Josh points out in the review, a record can mask unsustainable approaches when big winners skew the overall figures – we introduce A/E to assess Gwdihw’s approach.

Another way to assess a racing tipster is Percentage Of Rivals Beaten (or PRB). Here we took each selection’s position in the market at the off and compared that to where they actually finished, providing more context to how the bets were performing.

Advanced Analytics & Adaptations To Suit The User

Another item of discussion in the review was staking, something that John had identified as an area of possible improvement himself.

Using our Advanced Analytics, we compared the flat staking that John uses to measure his bets against a unit-win staking to deepen our understanding of performance:

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Why did we do this? Well a flat staking strategy can place a massive premium on certain longer priced horses if they are staked to the same level as an odds-on favourite so a more blended strategy can be deployed to even this disparity out.

As you can see here, it also provides the opportunity to approach a strategy with lower drawdowns and a less volatile betting journey.

Read All Of Our Reviews With A Subscription!

A full review of Gwdihw with all of this analysis (and a lot more!) is instantly available with a SBC Membership and different sign up options are available here.

Along with Gwdihw Racing, you will also be able to access all of our historical reviews in our back catalogue as well as several further member benefits that you can read about here.

If you want to know how a SBC Membership can help your betting it is well worth reading this Case Study from our member, James, who details how he has made just under £20k using the SBC since (re)joining us in January 2023!

If you want to know more about what we do or have any further questions please get in touch!

📰 SBC Magazine Issue #147: Exploring The Tipster Up 8.78% ROI at Betfair SP

Posted on by Josh P

Today saw the release of SBC Magazine #147 and it is packed with information, news, intelligence and a review to help you to make your betting profitable.

A free Betfair SP (BSP) Racing Tipster takes centre stage in our review this month as we introduce some new metrics to assess a service that has made an 8.78% ROI from nearly 5000 bets.

Betting at BSP presents challenges, so we have incorporated some newer measurements to see how strong the edge is and whether it is sustainable. The whats, whys and hows are all discussed in detail inside!

Cryptocurrency and offshore bookmakers also feature prominently this month as I was joined by Alex ‘Pisky’ Piskopos for SBC Podcast #81. To follow up, we recorded a Members Only video to talk specifically about this medium and how to use it securely and safely.

Alongside these themes, we have all of our usual news, commentary, tips and tricks to keep readers informed and ready to do battle with the markets!

Sign-up for membership to get instant access to SBC 147 and our full back catalogue​

Clocking in at 49 pages long, SBC 147 includes:

  • A full review of a free BSP horse racing tipster with tipster quotes and alternative following options presented
  • Accompanying metric and measurement analysis in a brand new guide
  • A podcast, a Members Only Video and a visit I made to another show
  • Cryptocurrency and offshore bookmaker content
  • Safer Gambling Week messaging madness from industry stakeholders
  • Our plans to support the wider betting community
  • Much more!

 

Sign Up For Instant Access

To gain instant access SBC Magazine #147 and all of our back catalogue of reviews and reports, you will require SBC Membership. To sign up as a paid SBC member, just click here and follow the registration link.​

To have a good look at what SBC Members get, this video introduces changes to the area of the site for those with full subscriptions, providing you with a sneak peak of what is inside!

Read What Our Members Say

If you want to learn more about the SBC then our members are probably the best people to listen to.

To read about the experience of someone who has been with us for just over a year, click here. If you would like to read a wider range of opinions, this page has some testimonials and this page profiles some wider case studies!

SBC Magazine Issue #146: A Bullseye With This Darts Tips Service?

Posted on by Josh P

Today saw the release of SBC Magazine #146 and it is packed with information, news, intelligence and a review to help you to make your betting profitable.

Darts is the focus this month and this timing is apt with the festive fancy dress and tournament season very quickly approaching!

The source of the bets for this review is Christian, the brains behind the SBC Hall Of Fame service Chasing Steamers, but his Darts service is a little different as price sensitivity and account longevity are not issues to contend with. The review outlines its very solid and beatable edge – with both soft and sharp bookmakers/exchanges an option.

Best of all – there is a significant SBC member only bonus offer if joining his Darts service, where you can get up to 6 months added onto your subscription for free.

The rest of SBC Issue 146 is packed with the usual gambling news snapshots, an Offshore Bookmakers Guide, SBC updates and our interactions with members – all in one place!

Sign-up for membership to get instant access to SBC 146 and our full back catalogue​

Clocking in at 42 pages long, SBC 146 includes:

  • A full review of Betting Is Cool’s DartsH2H service with detailed staking analysis and more advanced analytics such as Monte Carlo simulations. Also a unique SBC member free month offer.
  • A news review in a big month for gambling, with proposed tax rises, donor debates and dodgy reporting all discussed
  • Detailed SBC Member Q & As with withdrawal woes, edge erosion and variance all on the agenda
  • Two podcasts, a Offshore Bookmaker profile and much more!

Sign up for instant access

To gain instant access SBC Magazine #146 and all of our back catalogue of reviews and reports, you will require SBC Membership. To sign up as a paid SBC member, just click here and follow the registration link.​

To have a good look at what SBC Members get, this video introduces changes to the area of the site for those with full subscriptions, providing you with a sneak peak of what is inside!

Follow Us For Up To Date News & Notifications

With the US Election quickly upon us, I interviewed Zeus O’Dea in a politics special in one of two SBC Podcasts in October.

We will be watching the betting markets closely in the run up to November 5th and will provide live content via Twitter/X Spaces if we see a good opportunity to get some expert guests.

To make sure you don’t miss anything, following us @SBCInfo is a good idea as this is where you will find the most up to date notifications about what we’re up to!

Jam Packed SBC Issue: Explore The Betfair SP Racing Tipster (20% ROI) & A Lot More

Posted on by Josh P

The latest SBC Magazine (Issue 145) has just been published, and it is packed with information, news, resources and reviews to help you make your betting profitable.

Horse racing is a sport where how you tip matters and our first tipster review looks at a service that does everything right.

Mid-morning bet release, a (very) fair odds policy and profitable on exchanges (20.91% at Betfair SP) – this service is young but looks very promising – we take a deep dive into the numbers!

Our other reporting from the month focuses on a SBC Premium Service Demetrio Giotti, who has started the 24/25 season with 4/4 successful tips.

We look at the long-term data, CLV, a challenging 23/24 season and a lot more for a service that is the perfect fit for anyone looking for a solid, scalable edge that can be utilised with sharp bookmakers such as Pinnacle.

We provide a snapshot of what’s inside below. If it sounds like it could be for you, then sign-up for membership to get instant access to SBC 145 and our full back catalogue​

SBC 145 includes:

  • A horse racing service review with an edge to both advised prices and Betfair SP: lots of boxes are ticked with this one and at just £15 a month, it is a candidate for anyone’s portfolio​
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  • A deep dive recap on Demetrio Giotti and one of the very best scalable edges
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  • Various podcast and Spaces content with the likes of Mads Kindberg Nielsen, Matthew Trenhaile & Lee Keys starring
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  • Video guides for the ‘Top 10’ services that can be used worldwide and Irish Cash Consortium

Alongside this, the magazine also contains our ongoing commentary on political developments on both sides of the Atlantic as bettors face some new (and old!) challenges from both operators and legislators alike.

Sign up for instant access

To gain instant access SBC Magazine #145 and all of our back catalogue of reviews and reports, you will require SBC Membership. To sign up as a paid SBC member, just click here and follow the registration link.​

To have a good look at what SBC Members get, this video introduces changes to the area of the site for those with full subscriptions, providing you with a sneak peak of what is inside!

📰 SBC Magazine Issue #144: NFL Expert & When An Edge Isn’t An Edge!

Posted on by Josh P

Yesterday saw the release of SBC Magazine #144 and it is packed with information, news, resources and reviews to help you to make your betting profitable.

After publishing our Sports Tipster Profit Report in place of our monthly magazine in July, August sees us release two new tipster reviews and it is fair to say that they are very different!

One focuses on a service that is doing everything right – selective betting, consistent closing line value (CLV), profits and excellent customer service. The other is a little different – stand out prices, the use of concessions and ‘boosts’ and an edge that may be good on paper, but almost worthless in reality.

We provide a snapshot of what’s inside below. If it sounds like it could be for you, then sign-up for membership to get instant access to SBC 144 and our full back catalogue.​

Clocking in at 54 pages long, SBC 144 includes:

  • Analysis of a long-running NFL service which has a 13.39% ROI from 5 seasons’ worth of bets, with excellent CLV and viability on exchanges and with sharp books
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  • A review that looks at how not to do things, with a seemingly decent ROI needing several caveats attached to their record
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  • SBC Member Q & As, with practical advice provided by the SBC team
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  • A new SBC podcast, an international guest appearance and a new video guide for the excellent Monetos in-play football service

Sign Up For Instant Access

To gain instant access SBC Magazine #146 and all of our back catalogue of reviews and reports, you will require SBC Membership. To sign up as a paid SBC member, just click here and follow the registration link.​

To have a good look at what SBC Members get, this video introduces changes to the area of the site for those with full subscriptions, providing you with a sneak peak of what is inside!

Pinnacle Odds Dropper – Major New ‘Hall of Fame’ Service Review In SBC 143

Posted on by Peter Ling

The very latest SBC Magazine (Issue #143) has just been released, whereby we have a very detailed focus on Pinnacle Odds Dropper (or POD), a service that tracks sharp bookmaker moves to provide opportunities to profit from soft bookmakers (who are slower off the mark in adjusting their prices!).

Having used POD ourselves for several months and with a variety of benchmarked results to showcase, this review outlines just why we rate it of ‘Hall of Fame’ standard and how you can use it to eke a profit too.

Issue 143 of the SBC Magazine contains:

  • A full, in-depth review of POD based on our extensive experience using it.
  • Results breakdowns of the service, with real life users’ betting records analysed.
  • A video tutorial and walkthrough guide with Dylan, the service’s co-creator and owner.
  • Details on a significant SBC member discount on the cost of joining POD.
  • SBC News, with all of June’s key updates documented in one place
  • A comprehensive look at the wider ‘goings on’ in the betting world, with our ‘social media watch’ featuring some very interesting stories.

SIGN UP FOR INSTANT ACCESS TO ALL OUR CONTENT!

To gain instant access SBC Magazine #143 and all of our back catalogue of reviews and reports, you will require SBC Membership. To sign up as a paid SBC member, just click here and follow the registration link.

Another Free Tipster For SBC Members!

Posted on by Josh P

A new month presents yet another reason to join us here at The SBC!

We are excited to introduce Footy Star, an excellent algorithm-based value spotter who predominately finds winning bets in the ‘both team to score’ markets. Unlike most tipsters (and more importantly, recreational punters), Footy Star’s ‘MO’ is to select NO.

We have been proofing this strategy for some time and since 2022, Footy Star has:

  • Put forward 1,692 selections
  • Had 696 winners with a strike rate of 45.97% (178 bets were void)
  • Tipped with an average price of 2.752 (around 7/4)
  • Delivered a ROI of 14.29% with (the advised) flat staking

The breakdown of these results over the proofing period looks like this:

SBC Members can get instant access to Footy Star’s bets via Telegram and if you would like to learn more about the service, you can do so here.

​Joining An Illustrious Club

Footy Star is the latest in a long line of excellent tipsters who have joined us as Free Tipsters to showcase their prowess in beating the markets. Established tipsters such as No Foto Needed, PGA Profit and Pricewise With PCB all offered their services to our members free of charge for prolonged periods.

We currently have another three services who are also freely available to members, namely:

Account Agent: The service that helps you prolong bookmaker accounts by placing ‘Amateur Bets’ and ‘Hedge Bets’. We have tracked the performance of this service’s offering since it went live and for a minute loss in your bookmaker accounts, you can mask any other EV activity!

Kieran Ward 13/2 – 8/1 Racing: 10,599 bets. 1,079.80 points of profit at level stakes. A 10.4% ROI. Kieran Ward’s free service has been delivering for SBC Members for way over a decade. It is a brilliant service and costs members nothing!

The Daily Sheet: Another relative ‘newbie’ to the SBC Tipster stable, The Daily Sheet lets followers know about ‘warm money’ that is being fed into the morning markets. Run by a professional punter with a wide-ranging ‘little black book’, this service is well worth checking out!

These four exciting services are all available to SBC Members for nothing and they are just a fraction of what we have to offer. If you would like to learn more about how we can help your betting then our Membership Benefits page is well worth a browse.

Subscription options are available to view here and if you have any questions, please get in touch!