The recommended tipster with 26 losers in a row – understanding sequences & the maths that underpin value betting

Posted on November 19, 2020November 19, 2020 by Peter Ling

Be honest with yourself. How likely are you to stick with a tipster, no matter how good their reputation, if they put up 26 losing bets in a row?

Chances are that most people, especially if paying for tips would throw in the towel long before they placed the 27^th bet.

Yet, that is exactly the situation that unfolded with the SBC Hall of Fame service, the Daily Bargain in October when the first 26 bets of the month all lost.

(A Hall of Fame service is simply one of those we fully advocate to SBC members after several years of monitoring, thousands of results and deep analysis of the tipster in question)

As Steve who oversees the Daily Bargain puts up 1 bet a day, that was 26 days of consecutive losers, which will no doubt have seen some posing questions such as why have we at SBC recommended this service in the first place?

It must be some kind of mistake or perhaps even a scam as surely no subscription charging tipster could ever put up 26 losers in a row, could they?

Well, yes they can and in today’s article I am going to explain why as part of a very important discussion on mathematical sequences I would encourage you all to read.

Why Understanding Sequences Is Vital When Betting

Many losing bettors are fooled by their lack of understanding of sequences in relation to the odds and strike-rate of the tipster they follow.

A run of 26 losers in a row, whilst sounding unlikely, is in fact entirely reasonable to expect given the strike-rate of the Daily Bargain.

The historical strike-rate for this service over 2500 bets since 2012 has sat at 14.89%. Just under 1 in 7 bets win.

When we run this past the wonderful ‘Don’t Go Broke’ article I regularly reference from the Daily Bargain website itself, a tipster with a 15% strike-rate is rated to have as follows:

A 75% chance of 25 losers in sequence
A 50% chance of 30 losers in sequence
A 25% chance of 36 losers in sequence

So as unlikely as it sounds a run of 26 losers in sequence is reasonably likely to happen over a large enough sample size.

The Turnaround…

The above is important as it gets to the heart of a flawed viewpoint that many new punters wrongly believe – that if you pay for tips, you should win more often.

The reality is that you will continue to win just as often as the strike-rate of the tipster dictates. If the tipster wins 15% of the time, you will still win 15% of the time long-term.

Over the course of a short-term period, you will always see fluctuations in that – just as we saw in the first 26 bets of October for the Daily Bargain when it hit a 0% strike-rate.

Yet, what I haven’t yet discussed in this article is what happened between the 29^th October and the 2^nd November as you might have guessed by now…things changed!

Each of the 5 bets advised during this period by the Daily Bargain all won to make back the losses incurred in the first 26 bets of October and add plenty of profit on top.

To simple 1 point stakes, a deficit of -26 points had risen to a profit of +17.67 points.

A swing of 43.67 points in your favour.

What a turnaround and reward for those following during the fallow days of October for their patience. The losing run had been easily absorbed.

Taking as a whole, over the course of the 31 bets between the 1^st October and 2^nd November, this saw 31 bets advised, with 5 bets winning.

Which equates to…you guessed it a 16.12% strike-rate of success.

Just a smidgen above what the service has achieved long-term since 2012.

It is also worth pointing out here that during those 26 bets in October without a winner, 6 of them placed, finishing 2^nd or 3^rd at odds of 20/1, 10/1, 7/1, 7/1, 13/2, 11/2. So, it is not as if they all ran badly – sometimes it’s just a series of near misses that go against you, during a bad run. You must remain patient for the rewards to come your way.

I should also make clear that in the 10 days since the 2^nd November and this article being written, the Daily Bargain has also enjoyed three more big winners at 8/1, 12/1 and 9/2 so the rewards for being patient in October are now being reaped big time.

The Same Maths Apply Whether Paying For Tips or Not

The truth is that even if paying for a quality tipster service like the Daily Bargain, there is no getting away from the maths that underpin betting.

So don’t be fooled into the notion that if paying for tips, they will lose less.

They will lose the same amount as their long-term strike-rate dictates. In the Daily Bargain’s case – 15% of the time, they will win. 85% of the time they will lose.

What will change is the profits you make based on the odds you place the bets at.

Because as long as taking a value price, such as the Daily Bargain advocates, then over the course of time, you will end up in profit.

Yet these profits never come in a straight line. You might get 26 losers in a row; you might get 5 winners in a row.

The sequences will change. At times they will frustrate you and at others they will delight you. You simply have to be patient and not fall into the trap that gets so many punters who don’t understand the simple mathematics behind sequences.

The trick is not to micro-manage and live out your results day-to-day or week-to-week.

If you do so, you might fall into the trap of quitting too soon. Like any punters that stopped following the Daily Bargain after the 26th loser in October…

The Importance Of A Betting Bank

To help you cope with sequences, you also need a betting bank to cover yourself when bad runs hit.

This is why we recommend a 100 points bank for the Daily Bargain, because even if you joined on the 1^st October, you would have only lost 26% of your bank at that point.

Come the 2^nd November, you would have been up 17.67 points or 17.67% of your bank.

The betting bank is there to help keep your staking in check when a bad run hits, because all bettors, no matter how experienced do feel the pain of losing to some degree.

Over time and once you have ridden this storm a few times, it gets easier to handle, but if new to betting in this way and if you struggle to keep focus when in a losing spree, a betting bank is absolutely crucial.

Don’t forget either that each individual bet you place is almost always totally disconnected from the last bet you placed (assuming placed on different games/races)

So just because your last bet won or lost, it makes it no likelier that your next bet will do the same.

The horse running in the 3.10 at Kempton you have just backed has no idea that the horse you backed yesterday in the 2.20 at Wolverhampton lost.

It’s a completely different race with different horses, jockeys and conditions entirely. So try not to think about runs of ‘good form’ or ‘bad form’ and instead focus on the bigger picture.

That alongside a greater understanding of the betting strike-rate can make a world of difference to your betting.

And as ever you also need patience. Patience in abundance at times, but for those of you able to apply this to your betting – the rewards are there with the right tipsters.

Discover More On Top Tipsters & How To Win With SBC

If you are interested in learning more about both the top tipsters we recommend AND what it takes to win long-term as a bettor, then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

Not only do we guide you as to the best tipsters to follow like the Daily Bargain, via our Hall of Fame ratings and regular Tipster Profit Reports.

But we also do our best to explain, educate and inform on how to setup like a professional and handle the psychological swings of betting.

For every tipster we review and recommend we give ratings and scores on things like risk and profitability as well as guidance on the size betting bank you need if following.

You can also read the Pro Gambler Blueprint guide (65 page PDF) and our special 54-page Betting Psychology Guide, entitled ‘How to get the Betting X-Factor‘ as an SBC member.

Furthermore, you can also save on quality tipsters such as the Daily Bargain thanks to the discounts we offer SBC members. For example, you can enjoy an extra month free of charge to the Daily Bargain as an SBC member if subscribing to them.

Best of all you can sign-up today and enjoy a full money back guarantee if not satisfied by what we offer. Membership is available from as little as £29.99 per quarter.

Subscribe NOW to the Smart Betting Club and gain instant access

Best Regards

Peter Ling

Smart Betting Club Owner and Founder

If you have any questions on this article or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via pete@smartbettingclub.com. I respond to all emails as quickly as I can!

SBC Insight: Understanding your strike-rate & the losing runs that go with it – Essential punting advice

Posted on September 4, 2020September 4, 2020 by Peter Ling

Without doubt one of the biggest barriers to making your betting a success is learning how to deal with the psychological challenges that it can bring – especially when it comes to the dreaded losing run.

We have all been on them – those runs where you can’t see where your next winner is coming from.

The type that see you constantly topping up your bookmaker account and the feeling you are hemorrhaging money.

It’s why 2 punters who start following the same tipster can often end up with very different results. Often because during a losing run, one of them quits in reaction to a short-term run of form.

There is no shame in this – after all the emotion of betting can be very hard to handle, especially when you are expecting to make a profit and yet you keep losing.

Yet there is a way to get through them – simply by having a better understanding of some fundamentals that underpin value betting such as your strike-rate.

Learning About Losing Runs

To help you understand more on this topic, I want to share with you below a tremendous article as published by Steve Jones of the CD Systems service. It serves to educate you on strike-rates and how they can guide you as per losing runs and what to expect.

For example, a tipster service with a 49% strike-rate has a 50/50 chance of hitting 10 losers on the bounce over a 650 bet period.

Most services hitting such a strike-rate will likely advise bets between say 11/10 and 11/8, so how likely are you to stay the course if you backed 10 losers in sequence at odds of 11/8?

Many people during such a sequence would throw in the towel, yet this is not always the wisest move.

This article is one I return to again and again, especially during the dark days of betting when I can’t see where my next winner is coming. Because no-one is immune to bad runs, yet how we handle and react to them is vitally important.

And despite what you might think – just because you pay for tips, it doesn’t mean they will lose less. The fundamentals of probability remain the same, yet if these tips are based on a ‘value betting strategy’ with an edge, long-term it will reap dividends.

My thanks to Steve for giving me permission to share this article and I hope you enjoy it. You can read more about Steve and his services at the CD Systems website.

For further insight – Steve also recommends spending 20 minutes or so at https://justflipacoin.com and recording the sequences generated by random even-money spins. The results will surprise many and would need to be fully understood by anyone seriously intending to embark on a lengthy series of short-priced bets.

Don’t Go Broke! Understanding Losing Runs

Reproduced with permission – see the original at http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/dont_go_broke!.htm

One of the quickest ways to disaster is to be ignorant about losing sequences. They can occur without warning at any time, and they can quickly devastate a betting bank if it is of insufficient size to absorb them.

First of all, how do you know what the length of these losing sequences is likely to be? Well actually, that is fairly easy to predict, provided you have an accurate idea of your strike rate.

Sequences are directly related to strike rate, and you can mathematically determine the likelihood of specific sequences appearing, provided you know what percentage of the bets in a series are going to win. You can then use this criteria to set up your betting bank.

My view is that the size of your opening bank should equal the longest losing sequence you could encounter during an extended series of bets, multiplied by your maximum stake.

To illustrate, I have produced the table below, which you can use to determine your staking strategy. Let’s say, for example, you estimate that your strike rate over a series of 600 bets will be around 40%.

Please note at this stage that there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ strike rates – they are all purely relative to the price range you decide to target – please refer to my article How Many Winners? in conjunction with this procedure (opens in a new window).

Use Your Strike-Rate To Determine Losing Runs

As can be seen from the table below, with a 40% strike rate you can expect to have a losing sequence of 10 somewhere in the series (there is a 75% chance of that happening). However, there is a 50% chance of your hitting a losing sequence of 12 and a 25% chance of a run of 14 losers. That sequence of 14 is less than likely to occur, but it will still happen, on average, once in every four series.

On the other side of the coin, you have a 75% chance of hitting at least one winning run of 6 during the series. A sequence of 7 is a 50:50 possibility and a successful run of 8 has a 25% chance of occurring. Those figures can be seen in the 60% row (take your strike rate away from 100 and look in the row for the difference in order to anticipate winning sequences).

Finally, with a less than 1% chance, you are likely to confront a losing sequence of 20 no more often than once in every hundred series. However, that is the figure you should use in constructing your betting bank. If you are to operate professionally that is what you must do.

Using the formula I mentioned earlier, you would multiply the longest losing sequence you could encounter during the series (in the above example that would be 20) by your maximum stake. If that is, say, 5 points, then your starting bank should be 100 points.

Losing Runs Happen To Everyone

Please don’t make the common mistake of thinking these sequences won’t happen to you. They are mathematically determined by your strike rate and will happen as often as they are entitled to, whether you like it or not. Nobody can avoid them, but the difference between a professional and an amateur is that the professional is fully prepared for them. When they do occur it certainly doesn’t mean that you are ‘out of form’ or doing anything wrong.

It is also recommended that you set aside a reserve bank which can be used to temporarily top up the main bank in extreme circumstances. For example, a downturn which is over and above any which had originally been catered for (perhaps the original strike rate calculation was based on insufficient data and needs amending).

Once you have accurately anticipated your strike rate, you will be able to use the table below to optimise your bank structure.

Provided the average price of your winners is sufficient for your strike rate, as explained in How Many Winners?, and your bank is set up in such a way as to absorb sequences, then you will never have a problem. You will be well on your way to securing a successful future in a professional manner.

Anticipation of Sequences – Table

Please note: The table below is based on a series of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.

Strike Rate (%)	Anticipation of Sequences
Strike Rate (%)	Expected (75% chance)	50:50 (50% chance)	Unlikely (25% chance)	V. Unlikely (<1% chance)
3	83	105	132	235
4	69	86	106	185
5	59	73	90	153
6	52	64	78	130
7	46	57	68	113
8	42	51	61	101
9	38	47	56	91
10	35	43	51	82
11	33	40	47	75
12	30	37	44	69
13	29	34	41	64
14	27	32	38	60
15	25	30	36	56
16	24	29	34	53
17	23	27	32	50
18	22	26	30	47
19	21	25	29	45
20	20	24	28	42
21	19	23	26	40
22	18	22	25	39
23	17	21	24	37
24	17	20	23	35
25	16	19	22	34
26	15	19	21	33
27	15	18	21	31
28	14	17	20	30
29	14	17	19	29
30	13	16	19	28
31	13	16	18	27
32	12	15	17	26
33	12	15	17	25
34	12	14	16	24
35	11	14	16	24
36	11	13	15	23
37	11	13	15	22
38	10	13	15	21
39	10	12	14	21
40	10	12	14	20
41	9	12	13	20
42	9	11	13	19
43	9	11	13	19
44	9	11	12	18
45	8	11	12	18
46	8	10	12	17
47	8	10	11	17
48	8	10	11	16
49	8	10	11	16
50	7	9	11	15
51	7	9	10	15
52	7	9	10	15
53	7	9	10	14
54	7	8	10	14
55	6	8	9	14
56	6	8	9	13
57	6	8	9	13
58	6	8	9	13
59	6	8	9	12
60	6	7	8	12
61	5	7	8	12
62	5	7	8	11
63	5	7	8	11
64	5	7	8	11
65	5	7	7	11
66	5	6	7	10
67	5	6	7	10
68	5	6	7	10
69	4	6	7	10
70	4	6	7	9
71	4	6	6	9
72	4	6	6	9
73	4	5	6	9
74	4	5	6	8
75	4	5	6	8
76	4	5	6	8
77	3	5	6	8
78	3	5	5	8
79	3	5	5	7
80	3	5	5	7
81	3	4	5	7
82	3	4	5	7
83	3	4	5	7
84	3	4	5	6
85	3	4	4	6
86	3	4	4	6
87	2	4	4	6
88	2	4	4	6
89	2	4	4	5
90	2	3	4	5

I hope you enjoyed this article – if you have any feedback on it, please do share your thoughts with me via email – pete@smartbettingclub.com